2008-03-18 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 18, 2008 @ 9:33 am (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Producer Price Index MoM (Feb)

Survey	0.4%
Actual	0.3%
Prior	1.0%
Revised	n/a

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Feb)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.5%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Producer Price Index YoY (Feb)

Survey	6.8%
Actual	6.4%
Prior	7.4%
Revised	n/a

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Feb)

Survey	2.1%
Actual	2.4%
Prior	2.3%
Revised	n/a

Troubling as the Fed has indicated it’s getting passed through to core CPI measures.

Housing Starts (Feb)

Survey	995K
Actual	1065K
Prior	1012K
Revised	1071K

More indications of a possible bottom in housing, meaning it won’t be subtracting as much from GDP for the rest of the year.

Karim Basta:

Housing starts fall 0.6% in Feb, but January revised higher by 5.8%.

One notable trend is single vs multi-family starts. The latter has now risen for 3 straight months, whereas the former continues to decline across most regions. A couple explanations out there-foreclosures, real income weakness driving trend towards apartments/condos vs homes.

Permits fall another 7.8%; suggesting more declines in housing contribution to GDP going forward.

Margin squeeze evident in PPI as headline rises 0.3% and core by 0.5%.

Building Permits (Feb)

Survey	1020K
Actual	978K
Prior	1048K
Revised	1061K

Looking down, but the prior revision might be more relevant.

FOMC Rate Decision (Mar 18)

Survey	2.25%
Actual	2.25%
Prior	3.00%
Revised	n/a

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 16)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-31
Prior	-30
Revised	n/a

Yet another chart that may have bottomed?

2008-03-17 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 17, 2008 @ 9:24 am (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)

Survey	20
Actual	20
Prior	20
Revised	n/a

Still looking like housing may have bottomed October/November, as previously discussed.

Current Account Balance (4Q)

Survey	-$183.8B
Actual	-$172.9B
Prior	-$178.5B
Revised	-$177.4B

The dollar flight picks up steam.

Empire Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey	-7.4
Actual	-22.2
Prior	-11.7
Revised	n/a

Empire Manufacturing TABLE

The chart looks far worse than the table, which actually looks somewhat constructive.

And prices up (surprise!).

Industrial Production (Feb)

Survey	-0.1%
Actual	-0.5%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	0.1%

Q1 looking weak as advertised.

Capacity Utilization (Feb)

Survey	81.2%
Actual	80.9%
Prior	81.5%
Revised	n/a

Some slack forming but not much.

2008-03-14 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 14, 2008 @ 11:33 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Consumer Price Index MoM (Feb)

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.0%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Feb)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.0%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	n/a

Consumer Price Index YoY (Feb)

Survey	4.3%
Actual	4.0%
Prior	4.3%
Revised	n/a

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Feb)

Survey	2.4%
Actual	2.3%
Prior	2.5%
Revised	n/a

The calm during the storm.Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â March numbers are already beingÃƒâ€šÃ‚Â forecast at up 0.7% for headline CPI.

The individual components have been volatile.

Also, gasoline prices fell 2%.Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Retail sales of gasoline was reported down 1% earlier this week.Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Together this implies physical demand (gallons sold) went up.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Mar P)

Survey	69.5
Actual	70.5
Prior	70.8
Revised	n/a

Current conditions improved, expectations fell.

Inflation expectations one year forward rose from 3.6% to 4.5% which complicates the Fed’s decision on Tuesday.Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â The 5 year number fell from 3.0% to 2.9% which is somewhat of an offset.

2008-03-13 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 13, 2008 @ 9:10 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Import Price Index MoM (Feb)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	1.7%
Revised	1.6%

Import Price Index YoY (Feb)

Survey	n/a
Actual	13.6%
Prior	13.7%
Revised	13.8%

Import Prices Ex Petroleum YoY

Survey	n/a
Actual	4.5%
Prior	3.6%
Revised	n/a

Exports MoM (Feb)

Survey	n/a
Actual	0.9%
Prior	1.2%
Revised	n/a

Exports YoY (Feb)

Survey	n/a
Actual	6.8%
Prior	6.7%
Revised	n/a

Inflation ripping via the ‘weak dollar’ channel.

Note: non-petroleum imports up 0.6%.

Advance Retail Sales (Feb)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	-0.6%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	0.4%

Retail Sales Less Autos (Feb)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	-0.2%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	0.5%

Retail sales soft, but not in collapse. That’s what an export economy looks like: domestic sales soft, while exports pick up the slack and support GDP, real terms of trade, and standards of living deteriorate.

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 8)

Survey	357K
Actual	353K
Prior	351K
Revised	353K

Leveling off – nowhere near recession levels yet.

Would need to be 400K+.

Continuing Claims (Mar 1)

Survey	2835K
Actual	2835K
Prior	2831K
Revised	2828K

Moving a bit higher, but still far below recession levels.

Business Inventories (Jan)

Survey	0.5%
Actual	0.8%
Prior	0.6%
Revised	0.7%

Up some, but still much lower than prior to other recessions.

2008-03-12 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 12, 2008 @ 8:17 am (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

MBAVPRCH Index

Survey	n/a
Actual	368.8
Prior	363.1
Revised	n/a

May be coming back after a winter weather lull.

MBAVREFI Index

Survey	n/a
Actual	2448.2
Prior	2569.0
Revised	n/a

Not all that much refinancing activity.

Bloomberg Global Confidence (Mar)

Survey	n/a
Actual	13.08
Prior	14.34
Revised	n/a

The whole world is watching CNBC.

2008-03-11 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 11, 2008 @ 12:25 pm (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Trade Balance TABLE

Exports YoY

Trade Balance (Jan)

Survey	-$59.5B
Actual	-$58.2B
Prior	-$58.8B
Revised	-$57.9B

Exports up over 16.6% year over year (supports GDP) – looks like a banana republic!

Trade balance lower than expected with crude up to much. Should keep working it’s way lower all year as non residents work to reduce their rate of accumulation of USD financial assets.

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Mar)

Survey	40.5
Actual	42.5
Prior	44.5
Revised	n/a

Down, but a little bit better than expected.

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 9)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-30
Prior	-34
Revised	n/a

Could that be a bounce back?Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Haven’t seen one in so long can’t remember….

2008-03-10 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 10, 2008 @ 3:05 pm (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

Wholesale Inventories (Jan)

Survey	0.5%
Actual	0.8%
Prior	1.1%
Revised	n.a

Looking to see if there’s any inventory building in Q1 after the big fall off in Q4 after the run up in Q3 etc…

2008-03-07 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 7, 2008 @ 3:30 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls since 1980

Survey	23K
Actual	-63K
Prior	-17K
Revised	-22K

Unemployment Rate (Feb)

Survey	5.0%
Actual	4.8%
Prior	4.9%
Revised	n/a

The longer term chart is definitely looking lower/weaker, but not yet at recession levels, and is not ‘population adjusted.’

This give the Fed no comfort regarding inflation concerns.

The output gap is may already too low to bring inflation down, and their forecasts are for a (modest) pickup in growth when the fiscal package kicks in beginning early May.

In their models, it’s the forecast of rising unemployment that is responsible for the slack that brings inflation back into comfort zones.

Today’s 4.8% unemployment number is a step in the wrong direction for that to happen.

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Feb)

Survey	-25K
Actual	-52K
Prior	-28K
Revised	-31K

Manufacturing employment falls indefinitely in a modern economy.

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Feb)

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.3%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	0.3%

The Fed wants these to remain reasonably well-contained.

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Feb)

Survey	3.6%
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.7%
Revised	n/a

As above.

Average Weekly Hours (Feb)

Survey	33.7
Actual	33.7
Prior	33.7
Revised	n/a

Down a tad.

Coming soon!

Consumer Credit (Jan)

Survey	$7.0B
Actual	—
Prior	$4.5B
Revised	—

[comments]

2008-03-06 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 6, 2008 @ 2:10 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 1)

Survey	360K
Actual	351K
Prior	373K
Revised	375K

So far staying near the 4 week average of about 360,000. While higher than before, this is no longer high enough for a large enough output gap to address the now elevated rate of inflation and upward creeping inflation expectations.

Continuing Claims (Feb 23)

Continuing Claims since 1985

Survey	2810K
Actual	2831K
Prior	2807K
Revised	2802K

This too, is far to low for an output gap that the Fed may deem necessary to bring down inflation. The longer term chart is more informative in this regard.

Pending Home Sales MoM (Jan)

Survey	-1.0%
Actual	0.0%
Prior	-1.5%
Revised	-1.2%

The last thing the Fed needs is for housing to pick up now and shrink the current output gap.
That would put them hundreds of basis points behind the inflation curve.

Mortgage Delinquencies (4Q)

Survey	n/a
Actual	5.82%
Prior	5.59%
Revised	n/a

Mostly the sub prime buldge, but higher quality mtg delinquencies are up as well. Again, with higher inflation, the Fed needs a larger output gap.

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey	0.6%
Actual	1.9%
Prior	0.5%
Revised	n/a

Shows how domestic demand has been moderating over time, but not collapsing to recession levels.

2008-03-05 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 5, 2008 @ 2:45 pm (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 29)

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.0%
Prior	-19.2%
Revised	n/a

Refi’s bouncing back some.

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 29)

Survey	n/a
Actual	363.1
Prior	358.1
Revised	n/a

This seems to be drifting lower with time.

Might be loss of market share to banks.

MBAVREFI (Feb 29)

Survey	n/a
Actual	2569.0
Prior	2458.9
Revised	n/a

As above.

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Feb)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-14.2%
Prior	19.1%
Revised	n/a

Doesn’t show weakness in the labor markets other numbers show.

Doesn’t get much attention.

ADP Employment Change (Feb)

Survey	18K
Actual	-23K
Prior	130K
Revised	119K

Drifting lower over time.Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â May indicate payrolls are going to be in the 25,000 range.Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â On Friday the January number could be revised up and a low number reported for February.Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â This happened with the February report – December revised up quite a bit and January reported down.

Nonfarm Productivity (4Q F)

Survey	1.8%
Actual	1.9%
Prior	1.8%
Revised	n/a

Seems to go with GDP.

Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)

Survey	2.1%
Actual	2.6%
Prior	2.1%
Revised	n/a

These are now moving up to more nearly match import prices, which functionally are unit labor costs as well as we’ve outsourced labor intensive content.

The Fed watches this closely as when it moves up the inflation cat is out of the bag.

Factory Orders (Jan)

Survey	-2.5%
Actual	-2.5%
Prior	2.3%
Revised	2.0%

As expected,Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â seems to be in a range.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Feb)

Survey	47.3
Actual	49.3
Prior	44.6
Revised	n/a

Low, but a bounce from last month, as I expected then.Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Weak but not recession levels, and prices still too firm for comfort.