Category Archives: Daily

2008-10-10 USER

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Trade Balance (Aug)

Survey -$59.0B
Actual -$59.1B
Prior -$62.2B
Revised -$61.3B

 
If oil prices don’t rise and the foreign sector’s desire to accumulate $US stays down this will go a lot lower.

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Exports MoM (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.0%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

 
World economy takes pause.

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Imports MoM (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.4%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

 
US economy pauses.

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Exports YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 15.9%
Prior 20.1%
Revised n/a

 
Still way high.

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Imports YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 13.4%
Prior 16.3%
Revised n/a

 
Still growing fast, but largely oil prices.

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Trade Balance ALLX (Aug)

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Import Price Index MoM (Sep)

Survey -2.8%
Actual -3.0%
Prior -3.7%
Revised -2.6%

 
Big drop.

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Import Price Index YoY (Sep)

Survey 12.2%
Actual 14.5%
Prior 16.0%
Revised 18.7%

 
Still very high.

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Sep)


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2008-10-09 USER

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Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 4)

Survey 475K
Actual 478K
Prior 497K
Revised 498K

 
Still around 450,000 adjusted for storms.

Need another week or so to normalize.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 27)

Survey 3608K
Actual 3659K
Prior 3591K
Revised 3603K

 
Still rising.

No one seems to know how much the extended benefits added.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Oct 4)

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 1.4%
Revised 1.5%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 11.1%
Prior 10.8%
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Aug)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Aug)


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2008-10-08 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 3)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior -23.0%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct. 3)

Survey n/a
Actual 314.50
Prior 304.80
Revised n/a

 
Didn’t go down.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct. 3)

Survey n/a
Actual 1345.80
Prior 1333.90
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 3)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 3)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 3)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 3)

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Pending Home Sales (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 93.4
Prior 87.0
Revised n/a

 
And moving up?

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Aug)

Survey -1.3%
Actual 7.4%
Prior -3.2%
Revised -2.7%

 
Full blown housing boom underway! (OK, not yet)

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior -5.9%
Revised n/a

 
Went positive!

September will be the test with the intensified credit crunch, but if this stuff holds, the economy may be in better shape than assumed.


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2008-10-07 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Oct 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.30%
Prior 1.10%
Revised n/a

 
No collapse here yet.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Oct 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.10%
Prior -0.20%
Revised n/a

 
Muddling through here as well.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Oct 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.80%
Prior 1.00%
Revised n/a

 
Still weak, but not yet a collapse.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Oct 7)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.40%
Prior -1.30%
Revised n/a

 
Also weakening.

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Oct 7)

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Consumer Credit (Aug)

Survey $5.0B
Actual -$7.9B
Prior $4.6B
Revised $5.2B

 
This is a collapse!

Consumers petrified from daily drubbing of the stock market and news media.

Payroll tax holiday now!

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Consumer Credit TABLE 1 (Aug)

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Consumer Credit TABLE 2 (Aug)


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2008-10-03 USER

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Unemployment Rate (Sep)

Survey 6.1%
Actual 6.1%
Prior 6.1%
Revised n/a

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Sep)

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

Survey -105k
Actual -159k
Prior -84k
Revised -73k

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -519.00
Prior -279.00
Revised n/a

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Sep)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep)

Survey -57k
Actual -51k
Prior -61k
Revised -56k

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.2%
Prior -3.0%
Revised n/a

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Manufacturing Payrolls ALLX (Sep)

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Sep)

Survey 3.6%
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Sep)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 3 (Sep)

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Average Weekly Hours (Sep)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.6
Prior 33.7
Revised n/a

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Average Weekly Hours ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Average Weekly Hours ALLX 2 (Sep)

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Sep)

Survey 50.0
Actual 50.2
Prior 50.6
Revised n/a


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2008-10-02 USER

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Monster Employment Index (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 160.00
Prior 159.00
Revised n/a

 
Counter trend move higher?

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Monster Employment Index MoM (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Slightly positive.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 27)

Survey 475K
Actual 497K
Prior 493K
Revised 496K

 
Still high, but subtract maybe 50,000 for hurricanes and maybe the Boeing strike as well.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 20)

Survey 3550K
Actual 3591K
Prior 3542K
Revised 3543K

 
This was leveling off until the extended benefits package took effect, and has resumed its climb since.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 27)

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.76%
Prior -17.15%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 224.28
Prior 230.00
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

 
Still trending up year over year, but combined with other recent data doesn’t look good.

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Factory Orders MoM (Aug)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -4.0%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 0.7%

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Factory Orders TABLE (Aug)

 
Defense keeping this from being a lot worse.

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Aug)

 
Shipments down, unfilled orders up.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims rise 1k to 497k, with 40-50k still accounted for by hurricanes (4wk avg 474k).

  • Continuing claims, not effected by hurricanes, rise another 48k to new cycle high of 3542k (4wk avg 3528k).

  • Continuing claims more highly correlated to duration of unemployment and wage demands.

  • Consensus NFP tomorrow is -105k; based on claims, Conf Board and ISM surveys, risks seem more in -150k area.


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2008-10-01 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual -23.0%
Prior -10.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 304.80
Prior 342.20
Revised n/a

 
Back towards 300, the bottom of the range. Falling like most other indicators. A weak September due to the fears of the financial crisis looks to have pushed q3 into negative numbers.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 1333.90
Prior 2043.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Sep 26)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 32.6%
Prior 11.7%
Revised n/a

 
Not normally considered reliable, but this time in sync with other indicators of weakness.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Sep)

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ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Survey -50K
Actual -8K
Prior -33K
Revised -37K

 
The long gradual decline continues. This number is higher by about 50,000 than the same numbers will be as measured Friday due to the Boeing strike and the hurricane. ADP counts the strikers as still employed while the government doesn’t for Friday’s number.

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ADP ALLX (Sep)

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ISM Manufacturing (Sep)

Survey 49.5
Actual 43.5
Prior 49.9
Revised n/a

 
Serious nose dive here. Talk of buyers waiting for price reductions due to commodity price drops.

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ISM Prices Paid (Sep)

Survey 73.0
Actual 53.5
Prior 77.0
Revised n/a

 
Down, lower than expected, but more than half still paying higher prices. No deflation yet.

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ISM TABLE 1 (Sep)

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ISM TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Construction Spending MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.5%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.4%

 
Flat, better than expected, but prior month revised down by .8%.

Residential rose .3% for the first increase in a long time.

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Construction Spending YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.9%
Prior -5.9%
Revised n/a

 
The rate of decline has stabilized, and there will soon be easier comps.

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Construction Spending Residential (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 351662.0
Prior 350563.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Sep)


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2008-09-30 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.10%
Prior 1.30%
Revised n/a

 
Still positive but weak.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.20%
Prior -1.00%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.00%
Prior 1.20%
Revised n/a

 
Still positive but weak.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -1.20%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 30)

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Jul)

Survey -16.00%
Actual -16.35%
Prior -15.92%
Revised -15.91%

 
Down year over year, but the rate of decline has slowed.

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jul)

Survey 166.90
Actual 166.23
Prior 167.69
Revised 167.71

 
Decelerating rate of decline.

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index MoM (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.88%
Prior -0.52%
Revised n/a

 
From this angle it looks like the declines have moderated and could soon be over as inventories shrink and incomes continue higher.

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Case Shiller ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Case Shiller ALLX 2 (Jul)

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Sep)

Survey 53.0
Actual 56.7
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected and remaining above 50. Employment moved up to 49.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 1 (Sep)

 
Employment gapped up to 49?

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 2 (Sep)

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Sep)

Survey 44.0
Actual 46.0
Prior 43.0
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected and working its way out of the hole.

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Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Survey 55.0
Actual 59.8
Prior 56.9
Revised 58.5

 
Even this is moving up some though from very low levels, and as of September 23.

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Sep)


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2008-09-29 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.6%

 
Better than expected and prior month revised up a tenth. Fiscal packages don’t fade as quickly as the mainstream guesses.

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Personal Income YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Good enough to keep GDP muddling through, though the financial crisis could slow spending down some.

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Personal Income ALLX (Aug)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Less than expected even though income holding up, and prior revised up a tenth. Income in excess of spending doesn’t usually persist.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

 
On the soft side and continuing its gradual decline.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Aug)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.5%
Revised 4.6%

 
As expected and too high for Fed comfort.

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PCE Core MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Remains firm.

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PCE Core YoY (Aug)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.5%

 
Higher than expected, prior revised up a tenth, and looks to be breaking out. Not encouraging for the Fed. They want it below 2.0%.

Karim writes:

  • Nominal PCE unchanged in August after two consecutive declines.

  • Real consumer spending tracking -2.0% (annualized) thus far in Q3.

  • Inventory rebound should keep GDP positive in Q3.

  • Core deflator up 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y.


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2008-09-26 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q F)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 2.8%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

 
Growth lower than expected, but still ok.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (2Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Still above recession levels, but still not looking that healthy.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (2Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.1%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

 
Nominal GDP falling, but not yet to previous recession levels.

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GDP Price Index (2Q F)

Survey 1.2%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 1.2%
Revised n/a

 
A little better than expected, but this series doen’t carry much weight.

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GDP ALLX (2Q F)

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
A bit higher than expected, and the Fed does watch this one closely. They want it under 2%.

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Personal Consumption (2Q F)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

 
Worse than expected and not moving much off the bottom, which are at recession type levels.

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q F)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q F)

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Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Sep F)

Survey 70.8
Actual 70.3
Prior 73.1
Revised n/a

 
Less than expected but looks to have perked up some.

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1 Year Inflation Expectations (Sep F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.3%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

 
Welcome news for the Fed. Follows gasoline prices pretty closely.

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5 Year Inflation Expectations (Sep F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

 
Also nice to see that coming down.

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Univ. of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Sep F)


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