Is this all they can come up with?


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Europe adds to Bank Plans in Bid to Blunt Likely Recession

By David Gauthier-Villars and Leila Abboud in Paris, Sara Schaefer Munoz in London, and Mike Esterl in Frankfurt

Some European governments are looking at going beyond government aid to banks to help businesses, in an effort to inject money directly into the economy as lending remains stagnant and a continent-wide recession looms.

Italy’s government said Tuesday it was working on a package of economic-stimulus measures that could include guaranteeing corporate debt, a move that could give distressed Italian companies a new advantage over rivals elsewhere — and if enacted could set off a new round of cross-border competition, or complaints, about national aid.

Sounds highly inflationary, if the Italian guarantee is worth anything in the credit markets.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy called for the creation of sovereign-wealth funds to defend big companies from being bought up by non-Europeans at bargain prices, and proposed an “economic government” to coordinate euro-zone economic policy.

Also sounds highly inflationary as well as operationally problematic.

No talk of giving the euro parliament the fiscal authority to (deficit) spend their way out of the mess they have created.


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In over their heads


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The Fed and Treasury decided ‘the problem’ was the LIBOR/Fed funds spread and threw everything they had at it.

What finally did the trick was the Fed’s unlimited swap lines with the MOF, BOJ, ECB, and SNB.

Unfortunately that turned a technical problem into a fundamental problem, as I’ve previously described.

Back tracking to why they wanted LIBOR rates lower- they wanted to assist the mortgage market and consumer debt in general.

There were other ways to do this, such as my plan for uncollateralized lending to their own member banks where government already regulates and supervises all bank assets and insures bank deposits.

That would have eliminated the interbank market for Fed member banks.

Euro banks would have still been paying up for USD borrowings and been distorting LIBOR.

The next step would be to get the BBA to adjust the USD LIBOR basket to not include banks who had to pay substantially higher for funds than the US member banks.

(This is supposed to happen automatically but the BBA is dragging its feet as it did with Japan years ago.)

And this would have immediately gotten LIBOR and Fed funds back in sync.

Also, they could have expanded treasury funding for the agencies to make mortgages to member banks in general for the same purpose and lowered mortgage rates that way.

Point- lots of other/better/more sensible ways that don’t increase systemic risk than the policy of unlimited (and functionally unsecured) USD lending lines for foreign commercial banks.

The ‘cure’ seems a lot worse than the new problems it creates.

Note the euro falling fast…


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2008-10-20 CREDIT


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Spreads remain wide but did come in a bit with the equity rally.

Hard to say if credit spreads will drive an equity rally or vice versa.

IG On-the-run Spreads (Oct 20)

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IG6 Spreads (Oct 20)

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IG7 Spreads (Oct 20)

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IG8 Spreads (Oct 20)

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IG9 Spreads (Oct 20)


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2008-10-13 CREDIT


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Breaking out to new wides, as equities test new lows.

As before, equities are unlikely to rally substantially without the rest of the credit products tightening up.

It’s all the same thing.

IG On-the-run Spreads (Oct 13)

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IG6 Spreads (Oct 13)

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IG7 Spreads (Oct 13)

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IG8 Spreads (Oct 13)

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IG9 Spreads (Oct 13)


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EU CDS


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EU Credit Default Swaps

Country 5 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr. 10 yr.
Germany 20 25 26 31
Italy 69 79 82 92
France 26 31 32 37
Spain 61 71 74 84
United Kingdom 31 41 39 49
Greece 78 88 90 100
USA 27 33 34 40
Portugal 61 71 74 84
Finland 20 30 27 37
Ireland 64 74 68 78
Netherlands 23 33 29 39
Belgium 39 49 49 59
Sweden 28 38 36 46
Austria 28 38 37 47
Norway 12 20 18 26
Denmark 30 40 37 47


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Consumer Credit


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The consumer is petrified by our leadership.

Time for a payroll tax holiday!

U.S. Consumer Credit Dropped by the Most on Record (Update1)

By Vincent Del Giudice

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) — Borrowing by U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in August by the most on record as banks shut off access to loans, a report from the Federal Reserve showed.

Consumer credit fell by $7.9 billion, the most since statistics began in 1943, to $2.58 trillion, the Fed said today in Washington. In July, credit rose by $5.2 billion, previously reported as a $4.6 billion gain. The Fed’s report doesn’t cover borrowing secured by real estate.

Consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, is likely to keep faltering as banks hoard cash, job losses mount and property values drop. The decline in borrowing underscores why Fed policy makers today announced they will create a special fund to purchase commercial paper in a bid to open the flow of credit to the nation’s businesses.

“This is what happens when consumers are fearful and banks tighten lending standards to all applicants,” said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research in New York. “No one borrows, no one lends. It’s a classic example of a frozen credit channel.”

Economists forecast an increase of $5 billion in consumer credit during August, according to the median of 29 estimates in a survey conducted by Bloomberg News.

According to the Fed, total consumer borrowing dropped at a 4.3 percent annual rate in August, the most since January 1998, during the Asian financial crisis.

Revolving debt such as credit cards decreased by $612 million during August and non-revolving debt, including auto loans, dropped by $7.3 billion.

Late Payments

The number of credit card bills paid late increased in the second quarter, according to the American Bankers Association, rising to 4.54 percent from 4.51 percent in the first quarter. The average bank card delinquency rate over the last two years is 4.44 percent.

Discover Financial Services, the credit-card company spun off from Morgan Stanley, said third-quarter profit declined 11 percent as late payments increased, the Riverwoods, Illinois company announced Sept. 25. Discover has lost almost half its market value since it was spun off in June 2007.

Figures released last week show auto sales tumbled 27 percent in September as the credit crisis and slowing economy dragged the industry to its worst month since 1991.

A quarterly Fed report issued on Sept. 18 showed household wealth fell from April to June for the third consecutive quarter and borrowing slowed as home prices dropped and lenders pulled back. Net worth for households and non-profit groups decreased by $438 billion in the second quarter to $56 trillion, the lowest since the end of 2006, according to the Flow of Funds report. Real estate-related assets declined by $258.8 billion, following a $299.5 billion loss.


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2008-10-06 Weekly Credit Graphs


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Probably worse after today.

IG On-the-run Spreads (Oct 06)

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IG6 Spreads (Oct 06)

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IG7 Spreads (Oct 06)

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IG8 Spreads (Oct 06)

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IG9 Spreads (Oct 06)


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