Tag Archives: MBA Refinancing Index

2008-11-26 USER

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Karim writes:

Lots of numbers today- none of them real good.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.5%
Prior -6.2%
Revised -6.2%

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 261.60
Prior 248.50
Revised n/a

 
Up a bit from very low levels.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1254.00
Prior 1281.20
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders (Oct)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -6.2%
Prior 0.8%
Revised -0.2%

 
Big fall.

Karim writes:

  • -6.2% m/m
  • -4% m/m ex-aircraft and defense (after -3.2% and -2.3% prior two months)

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -11.7%
Prior -2.5%
Revised n/a

 
Big fall in a longer term down trend.

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.6%
Actual -4.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -2.3%

 
Not good either.

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.6%
Prior -1.8%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Income MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Income has held up better than expected.

And the consumer has deleveraged substantially.

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Personal Income YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

 
Looking lower.

Will get a nice kick up with the coming fiscal adjustment.

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Personal Income ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Consumption falling even as income continues to increase.

The consumer is recharging his batteries.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Oct)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 4.2%
Revised 4.1%

 
Down some and more weak numbers to come, but the longer term trend still looks up.

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PCE Core MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Oct)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.3%

 
Higher than expected but down some, and more weak numbers on the way, but still at the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)

Survey 535K
Actual 529K
Prior 542K
Revised 543K

 
Remains very high.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims only decline 14k to 529k after 80k rise in prior 4 weeks
  • Similar bounce with continuing, drop of 54k to 3962k (had risen 295k in prior 3 weeks)

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Continuing Claims (Nov 15)

Survey 4080K
Actual 3962K
Prior 4012K
Revised 4016K

 
Off the highs but remain very high.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 22)

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Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Nov F)

Survey 57.5
Actual 55.3
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Back through the lows.

Karim writes:

  • New low for headline confidence, from 57.9 to 55.3
  • 5yr fwd inflation expectations unchanged at 2.9

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New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey 441K
Actual 433K
Prior 464K
Revised 457K

 
Still sliding.

Karim writes:

  • -5% m/m
  • Mths supply rise from 10.9 to 11.1

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.00
Prior 414.00
Revised n/a

 
Maybe this is why sales are falling- no new homes left for sale!

Falling sharply.

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New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey -5.0%
Actual -5.3%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 0.7%

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New Home Sales YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -40.1%
Prior -34.1%
Revised n/a

 
Might be leveling off at very low levels.

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New Home Sales Median Price (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 218.00
Prior 221.70
Revised n/a

 
Prices falling but not collapsing.

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Oct)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Oct)


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2008-10-15 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.1%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 313.50
Prior 314.50
Revised n/a

 
Down a tad, but the lower band of the range holding.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 1514.20
Prior 1345.80
Revised n/a

 
Refi machine seems to be functioning.

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 10)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 10)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct)

Survey -10.0
Actual -24.6
Prior -7.4
Revised n/a

 
Much lower than expected as the world economy slows.

Karim says:

  • Drops from -7.4 to record low of -24.6.

  • Orders drop 25 points, shipments drop 9 points, workweek drops 4 points.

  • Employment modest improvement from -4.6 to -3.7

  • Bulk of labor force adjustment seems to be in hours.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Producer Price Index MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.9%
Revised n/a

 
As expected.

Karim says:

  • Headline -0.4% and core +0.4%

  • Intermediate stage -1.2% and core -0.3%

  • Crude stage -7.9% and core -9.4%

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected.

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Producer Price Index YoY (Sep)

Survey 8.6%
Actual 8.7%
Prior 9.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still up big year over year.

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Sep)

Survey 3.8%
Actual 4.0%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

 
This is breaking out as well.

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.2%
Prior -0.3%
Revised -0.4%

 
Lowe than expected partly due to lower gasoline prices.

Karim says:

  • -1.2% m/m and -0.6% m/m ex-autos; modest downward revisions to back months.

  • -1.3% ex-gas.

  • All you need to know is only 2 components to rise m/m were health care and gasoline!

  • Furniture and clothing were each down 2.3%; the drop in furniture the most since Feb 2003.

  • And this before the 15% month to date decline in equities in October.

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.0%
Prior 1.5%
Revised n/a

 
Looking like recession levels.

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.9%

 
Also, lower than expected.

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 3 (Sep)

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Business Inventories MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

 
A little lower than expected.

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Business Inventories YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.4%
Prior 6.5%
Revised n/a

 
Working their way higher but not out of control.


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2008-10-01 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual -23.0%
Prior -10.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 304.80
Prior 342.20
Revised n/a

 
Back towards 300, the bottom of the range. Falling like most other indicators. A weak September due to the fears of the financial crisis looks to have pushed q3 into negative numbers.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 1333.90
Prior 2043.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Sep 26)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 32.6%
Prior 11.7%
Revised n/a

 
Not normally considered reliable, but this time in sync with other indicators of weakness.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Sep)

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ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Survey -50K
Actual -8K
Prior -33K
Revised -37K

 
The long gradual decline continues. This number is higher by about 50,000 than the same numbers will be as measured Friday due to the Boeing strike and the hurricane. ADP counts the strikers as still employed while the government doesn’t for Friday’s number.

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ADP ALLX (Sep)

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ISM Manufacturing (Sep)

Survey 49.5
Actual 43.5
Prior 49.9
Revised n/a

 
Serious nose dive here. Talk of buyers waiting for price reductions due to commodity price drops.

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ISM Prices Paid (Sep)

Survey 73.0
Actual 53.5
Prior 77.0
Revised n/a

 
Down, lower than expected, but more than half still paying higher prices. No deflation yet.

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ISM TABLE 1 (Sep)

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ISM TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Construction Spending MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.5%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.4%

 
Flat, better than expected, but prior month revised down by .8%.

Residential rose .3% for the first increase in a long time.

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Construction Spending YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.9%
Prior -5.9%
Revised n/a

 
The rate of decline has stabilized, and there will soon be easier comps.

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Construction Spending Residential (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 351662.0
Prior 350563.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Sep)


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2008-02-06 US Economic Releases

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2008-02-06 MBAVPRCH Index SA

Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Index SA (Feb 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 405.3
Prior 362.0
Revised n/a

Wild January, even considering all year ends are volatile for this series – now back over 400, roughly the 2006 average.

Will take a few more weeks to see where it’s been and where it may be going.

If it holds over 400 it’s one sign housing may not be getting any worse. A move back down to the 350 level signals another move down in housing.

2008-02-06 MBAVREFI Index SA

MBA Refinancing Index SA (Feb 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 5054.0
Prior 5103.6
Revised n/a

Cranking them out as fast as the remaining mortgage banking staff can handle them.

2008-02-06 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity(4Q P)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 6.3%
Revised 6.0%

This means more output than expected for the same workforce.

2008-02-06 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (4Q P)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 2.1%
Prior -2.0%
Revised -1.9%

Goes hand in hand with productivity- looks like business has this under control – supports good Q4 profitability.

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