ADP Archive

Non-Mfg ISM//Payrolls

Karim writes: All key components up; prices paid lower but still at high level. Employment up 4pts and up 4.5pts relative to 6mth avg. Hopefully, BLS can put a reasonable number on snowstorm impact on Friday. Ex-snow and census workers, would look for +25-50k number. Feb Jan Composite 53.0 50.5 Activity 54.8 ...Read More


[Skip to the end] We’ll see if the zero rate policy keeps giving that feeling that the economy is dragging an anchor chain, and requires lower taxes for a given amount of govt. spending to sustain a lower output gap. Karim writes: ADP, claims and employment component of ISM survey consistent with ...Read More

3 most important numbers

From Karim: Index of aggregate hours -0.3% Diffusion index from 50.0 to 46.2 Median duration of unemployment from 8.4 to 8.8 weeks So output likely declining, more industries shedding jobs than adding, and l-t unemployed accounting for larger % of total unemployed Other notes.. Unemployment rate falls from 4.97% to 4.925%. Partially ...Read More


From Karim: GDP slows from 4.9% to 0.6% Personal consumption slows from 2.8% to 2.5% DGO strength in Dec shows up in modest positive in equipment and software (+3.8%) Residential FI (housing) down 23.9% Core PCE up 2.7% annualized for quarter and 2.1% y/y Net exports add 0.4% to gwth Inventories a ...Read More