Karim Archive

ISM (non-Mfg)

[Skip to the end] (email exchange) yes, seems second quarter earnings should be better than expected and that costs are way down which will add to profitability even with flattish sales. and very wide net interest margins will support bank earnings growth even with low volume and continuing losses. this can be ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: No outliers. Headline CPI up 0.096% m/m and -1.3% y/y; lowest y/y rate since 1950 will fall further over next 2mths before rising again in August. Wild swings in headline from 5.6% to -2% in a 12mth period reinforcing Fed focus on core Core up .145% ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Overall, manufacturing still contracting, but at a slower rate. Rebound in orders likely due to credit supply not being as sharp a constraint as it was in Q4 and inventory drawdown. Increase in backlogs suggests production may actually stop contracting in next couple of months. But ...Read More

Durable Goods Order/Claims

Karim writes: Durable Goods Order/Claims Durables goods orders +1.9% headline; -1.5% ex-aircraft and defense (this is the measure used for the private sector capex component of GDP) Defense up 23.2% m/m; here are the prior 3mths for defense orders in 2009 (-11%;+33%;-40%) Shipments ex-defense -0.3% Inventories -0.8% (unexpected as most felt inventory ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Claims Initial claims down to 631k (last week revised up from 637k to 643k) Continuing claims up another 75k; up every week this year Need to see initial claims (which represent layoffs) move back to 350-400k to signal no further job losses Continuing claims reflect lack ...Read More

Starts/Permits/Chain Store

Karim writes: Safe to say we have corrected for the 65.6% rise in multi-family starts in February as we have now had back-to-back months of -46.1% (today’s #) and -23.0% Single family starts up 2.8% in April and overall starts -12.8% Permits, a leading indicator of starts, -3.3% overall, +3.6% single family, ...Read More

Japan Data/Outlook

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: In my years of following G7 economies, I have never seen weaker data than we have had in Japan in recent months. Today’s data: Industrial production -9.6% in December (record monthly fall), following up on -8.5% m/m in November and industry projecting -9.1% in January. Moreover, ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Surprise dissent from Lacker who would rather buy Treasuries than utilize the current slew of credit programs (didn’t realize there could be dissents as it related to type of non-traditional easing). Other notes: Economy has gotten worse since December Risk of inflation falling and persisting to ...Read More

NFP: 13.5%!

[Skip to the end] From Karim: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force: This measure rose from 12.6% to 13.5% in December. It was 8.7% in December 2007. As for NFP/UE: -524k; net revisions -154k Unemployment ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: 1st attempt by ADP to ‘sync’ with BLS methodology to more accurately forecast payrolls and avoid persistent large-scale misses of past 2yrs: And the prediction is: -693k About 200k worse than consensus for Friday. [top] ...Read More