Category Archives: Inflation

Personal income and outlays, employment cost index, Chicago PMI

The stock market is happy on the false assumption that bad news means lower rates from the Fed which is good for profits, but that’s another story… Income and spending weak, and prices soft as the Fed continues to fail … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Fed, Inflation |

Fed minutes

Bill McBride and I agree this is the key takeaway. That is, the Fed still sees the risks as asymmetrical and therefore prefers to err on the side of ease. So stocks soar on the belief that low rates from … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Inflation | Tagged |

Japan’s ‘bad inflation’

The Next Stage of Abenomics Is Coming – Shinzo Abe (WSJ) My highest priority as Japan’s prime minister remains the economy… Make no mistake, Japan will emerge from economic contraction and advance into new fields and engage in fresh challenges…Some … Continue reading

Posted in Inflation, Japan |

Producer prices chart and other news

Remember all that ‘hyper inflation’ talk surrounding 0 rates and QE? No sign of it here. Or anywhere else I’ve looked: Nor do you hear any more talk about ‘credit acceleration’ since its post winter growth fizzled: And wage growth … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Inflation |

Housing and CPI

Reinforces the mainstream narrative of the moment: The Fed will keep rates low, getting ‘behind the curve’ and causing a run away economy. My narrative remains that the 0 rate policy is deflationary and also keeps a lid on growth. … Continue reading

Posted in Housing, Inflation |

Abenomics= ‘bad’ inflation

Squeaking By on Abenomics By Joseph Sternberg July 2 (WSJ) — Preliminary data show cash earnings, including bonuses, rising by 0.8% year-on-year in May. Base pay increased 0.2%, its first rise in around two years. This looks like the “wage … Continue reading

Posted in Inflation, Japan | Tagged |

housing starts and other charts

Same pattern- down some for the winter, up some, then backing off some. If this is in fact what’s happening, Q2 GDP could be up less than 3%, and 2014 sub 2%, or even sub 0, if the demand leakages … Continue reading

Posted in Government Spending, Housing, Inflation |

Abenomics Spurs Most Misery Since ’81 as Senior Scrimps

As previously discussed, it’s a case of ‘bad inflation’… Abenomics Spurs Most Misery Since ’81 as Senior Scrimps By Isabel Reynolds and Chikako Mogi June 6 (Bloomberg) — Mieko Tatsunami finds Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s drive to reflate Japan’s economy … Continue reading

Posted in Inflation, Japan |

Wage inflation!

Time to tighten up on account of ‘wage inflation’… Full size image

Posted in Employment, Inflation |

proactive fiscal tightening damages income growth

Full size image Full size image Mind the gap: Full size image This is below prior recession levels! Full size image This is year over year growth in consumption of domestic product, which is GDP less capex less exports. It … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Fed, Government Spending, Inflation |