Category Archives: Inflation

claims, retail sales, prices, inventories

If sales are going to fall off it will be after the layoffs and capital expenditure cuts from the fall in crude prices take place: Jobless Claims Highlights Jobless claims data are low but still are still trending higher than … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, GDP, Inflation |

RT interview

My RT interview starts at the 4 min mark. The cut it into segments that will appear at a later date.

Posted in Employment, Fed, Inflation |

Comments on crude pricing, the economy, and the banking system

Crude pricing The Saudis are the ‘supplier of last resort’/swing producer. Every day the world buys all the crude the other producers sell to the highest bidder and then go to the Saudis for the last 9-10 million barrels that … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, CBs, Comodities, Credit, Currencies, Fed, GDP, Inflation, Interest Rates, Oil |

Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI

The stock market is happy on the false assumption that bad news means lower rates from the Fed which is good for profits, but that’s another story… Income and spending weak, and prices soft as the Fed continues to fail … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Fed, Inflation |

Fed minutes

Bill McBride and I agree this is the key takeaway. That is, the Fed still sees the risks as asymmetrical and therefore prefers to err on the side of ease. So stocks soar on the belief that low rates from … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Inflation | Tagged |

Japan’s ‘bad inflation’

The Next Stage of Abenomics Is Coming – Shinzo Abe (WSJ) My highest priority as Japan’s prime minister remains the economy… Make no mistake, Japan will emerge from economic contraction and advance into new fields and engage in fresh challenges…Some … Continue reading

Posted in Inflation, Japan |

Producer prices chart and other news

Remember all that ‘hyper inflation’ talk surrounding 0 rates and QE? No sign of it here. Or anywhere else I’ve looked: Nor do you hear any more talk about ‘credit acceleration’ since its post winter growth fizzled: And wage growth … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Inflation |

Housing and CPI

Reinforces the mainstream narrative of the moment: The Fed will keep rates low, getting ‘behind the curve’ and causing a run away economy. My narrative remains that the 0 rate policy is deflationary and also keeps a lid on growth. … Continue reading

Posted in Housing, Inflation |

Abenomics= ‘bad’ inflation

Squeaking By on Abenomics By Joseph Sternberg July 2 (WSJ) — Preliminary data show cash earnings, including bonuses, rising by 0.8% year-on-year in May. Base pay increased 0.2%, its first rise in around two years. This looks like the “wage … Continue reading

Posted in Inflation, Japan | Tagged |

housing starts and other charts

Same pattern- down some for the winter, up some, then backing off some. If this is in fact what’s happening, Q2 GDP could be up less than 3%, and 2014 sub 2%, or even sub 0, if the demand leakages … Continue reading

Posted in Government Spending, Housing, Inflation |