Inflation Archive

Mtg prch apps, CPI, Housing starts, Industrial production

Working their way a bit higher but still seriously depressed: With the year over year CPI increase now only 1% the Fed can only wait and see if headline will catch up to core and ‘justify’ their tightening bias. Consumer Price Index Highlights The CPI core is showing pressure for a second ...Read More

CPI, Empire survey, Redbook retail sales, Housing index

One of the Fed’s mandates. The ‘headline’ number is below target due to the energy impulse, but the ‘core’ rate, led by services, is on target. The question is whether energy prices, if they remain at current levels, will ‘pull down’ other prices. And the comparisons with last year are now vs ...Read More

Comments on Draghi NY Speech

Excerpts from the Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Economic Club of New York, 4 December 2015: There is no particular limit to how we can deploy any of our tools. True- limits are political And in this context it is important to recall that we operate under a clear ...Read More

CPI, Redbook Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Index, Containers, FHA Capital, EU Car Registrations, Japan

Part of the Fed’s mandate is to hit it’s 2% inflation target: Still at recession type levels: This is also what recession looks like: The anointed ‘driver of the economy’ continues to falter as previously discussed: Housing Market Index Highlights The housing market index from the nation’s home builders shows weakness, at ...Read More

PPI, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Business Sales and Inventories

More deflation news here: PPI-FD Nothing good here, and of course sales = income, so lower sales = lower incomes. Also, the boost to prior months from car sales looks like it’s fading: Retail Sales Highlights Retail sales slowed in October but fundamentally remain solid. Sales rose only 0.1 percent, 2 tenths ...Read More

Lumber Prices, Small Business Index, Import Export Prices, Redbook Retail Sales, Wholesale Trade

Along with most indicators, this one turned south as oil capex collapsed: Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Sharply Year-over-year Here is another graph on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs. The price increases in early 2013 were due to a surge in demand ...Read More

Health Care Expenditures, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

My understanding is that this series includes premiums paid for health insurance and so GDP has gotten a one time boost from from the newly insured who are now paying insurance premiums via the affordable care act. So Q4 should see another reduction and growth and a lower contribution to GDP growth: ...Read More

CPI, Empire State Survey, Philly Fed, Brent Crude Price, Previous Banking Post

CPI, Empire State Survey, Philly Fed, Brent Crude Price, Previous Banking Post Consumer Price Index Empire State Mfg Survey Highlights Minus signs sweep the Empire State report with the headline at minus 11.36 which is more than 1 point below Econoday’s low end estimate. Looking at individual readings, new orders are in ...Read More

German Trade, Japan

Exports down but so are imports, indicating a weak global economy and continued euro support from trade net flows: Germany : Merchandise Trade German exports plunge at fastest pace since global financial crisis Oct 8 (Reuters) — German exports plunged in August. Data from the Federal Statistics Office showed seasonally-adjusted exports sliding ...Read More

Cartoon, US International Trade, India, Redbook Retail Sales, China Comments, Consumer Confidence

As previously discussed, trade deficit increasing: United States : International trade in goods Definition The Census Bureau is now publishing an advance report on U.S. international trade in goods. The BEA will incorporate these data into its estimates of exports and imports for the advance GDP estimates. This is expected to reduce ...Read More