Inflation Archive

Employment, China

Employment generates income and spending. The gap vs the pre-covid path is closing at an ever slowing rate. And the cost of living is rising faster than wages, which exacts a toll as well. These are inflation-adjusted: This came out last week: ...Read More

Consumer sentiment, real retail sales, industrial production, wages

A bit of an uptick but still trending lower: Sales going sideways on an inflation adjusted basis: This sector seems to be doing ok: Not keeping up with inflation so probably not causing it: Lowest income earners (no college) have been catching up some, but also lagging inflation: ...Read More

New manufacturers orders, vehicle sales, unemployment claims, rents, oil prices

This component is going nowhere: Still trying to catch up from the oil capex collapse of 2016 and covid collapse: Not good: This is an all time low as people scramble to get extra jobs to deal with higher prices, like paying rent, for example: Oil prices taking a breather with the ...Read More

Saudi price hike, private payrolls, new hires, corporate profits

This could easily drive oil up past $200/barrel and trigger a serious recession. This survey/forecast is higher than precovid. The full employment report comes out Friday: Gross new hires have been trending lower: Corporate profits jumped after the covid dip and have recently flattened: ...Read More

CPI, commodity charts

Quite a few price increases, which the media now calls ‘inflation’ even though inflation is a continuous increase in the price level: The annual inflation rate in the US surged to 6.2% in October of 2021, the highest since November of 1990 and above forecasts of 5.8%. Upward pressure was broad-based, with ...Read More

Buy backs, Inflation, Credit applications, Philly Fed

So the question is regarding dividends vs stock buy backs- do stock buy backs cause stocks to be over valued or do dividends cause them to be undervalued? ;) A Surprising Connection Between the Bull Market and Stock Buybacks (WSJ) A study published last year in the Financial Analysts Journal, “Net Buybacks ...Read More

Employment

Nice surprise on the upside, though there’s discussion it’s weather-related, as highlighted below. The growth rate moved up some as per the chart shows, but remains in a multi-year downtrend, with the low growth in hourly earnings an indication that demand remains very weak; Highlights There’s still no wage inflation underway but ...Read More

Factory orders, Trade, Consumer credit, Fed beige book, Las Vegas real estate sales

Highlights Today’s factory orders report, down 1.4 percent at the headline level but showing life underneath, closes the book on what was a mixed to soft month of January for manufacturing. Aircraft has been a bright spot for the factory sector and mitigates what is a 28 percent downswing in January. Excluding ...Read More

Light vehicle sales, Trump tariffs

Blaming interest rates for a decline that started about two years ago: U.S. Car Sales Fall as Credit Terms, Higher Payments Squeeze Buyers (WSJ) Overall U.S. vehicle sales dropped 2.4% in February, to 1.3 million, according to Autodata Corp. J.D. Power estimates incentive spending in February—averaging $3,850 per vehicle—was down slightly from ...Read More

Personal income and expenditures, Construction spending

About as expected, with a relatively small increase from the tax cuts, which are a one time event. And the weakness in consumption hints at those receiving the cuts having a low propensity to spend. Also, the still too low personal savings rate suggests continuing weakness: Highlights Core inflation did noticeably rise ...Read More