Government Spending Archive

Case-Shiller housing price index

Looks to me like this business cycle is over? This is a lack of demand story. The FICA hike in Jan 2013, followed by the sequesters in April, and the aggressive automatic fiscal stabilizers doing their thing to reduce govt net spending add up to the walls coming in on the economy: ...Read More

The first L shaped US ‘recovery’

Some 5 years ago when the talk was about whether the US recovery was going to be V shaped or U shaped, I suggested that it would be more L shaped, as a 0 rate policy requires a larger deficit, etc. That is, after a sharp fall it would go sideways. Here ...Read More

Construction, gasoline prices, manufacturing, state and local contribution to gdp, restaurant performance index, saudi output, sun spots

Headlines sound a lot better than the charts look. Absolute levels and growth rates continue to fall short of prior cycles: Construction Spending Highlights Construction outlays saw a broad-based gain in July. Construction spending rebounded 1.8 percent after a 0.9 percent dip in June. While all broad categories advanced, July’s increase was ...Read More

Charts and data from the last few days

Down for the cold winter then back up some, and a very weak first half of the year, and Q3 fading from Q2: GDP Highlights The second estimate for second quarter GDP growth came in a little stronger than expected, rising 4.2 percent annualized versus a 4.0 percent forecast and coming off ...Read More

Real Fiscal Responsibility Today Radio and TV Show pilots

The Real Fiscal Responsibility Talk Show Pilot Project This project is for everyone tired of hearing economic commentary from those who got everything wrong. For decades the the doctrine of “Fiscal Responsibility” interpreted as long-term deficit reduction and Government austerity has had a secure place in American politics. The three of us ...Read More

taking away the punch bowl

image ...Read More

Pending home sales and why housing matters

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.1% in June, down 7.3% year-over-year By Bill McBride From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Slip in June The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 1.1 percent to 102.7 in June from 103.8 in May, and is 7.3 percent below ...Read More

Federal government tax receipts

Federal government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes Full size image Federal government current receipts: Contributions for government social insurance Full size image The automatic fiscal stabilizers got some help from the FICA hike to cut net govt spending and throw a wet blanket over growth and maybe take a year or ...Read More

IMF’s Lagarde hints at world growth forecast cut – Reuters

And remains ‘part of the problem’ vs ‘part of the solution’ Reuters noted comments from IMF chief Christine Lagarde, who said that global economic activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and accelerate through 2015, although momentum could be weaker than expected. She said that central banks’ accommodative policies ...Read More

German unemployment at 6.7%

Shows how far economic expectations have deteriorated when this kind of a whopping output gap is considered to be an unquestioned success and the envy of the euro zone, as well as most of the world. Taxation creates unemployment (people seeking paid work), by design, as a simple point of logic. So ...Read More