Pending Home Sales Total SA
Pending Home Sales MoM (Oct)
| Survey | -1.0% |
| Actual | 0.6% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 1.4% |
Speaks for itself. The fed has more than enough support from the actual data not to cut the FF rate.
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Category Archives: Daily
2007-12-07 US Economic Releases
On 12/7/07, Karim Basta wrote:
>
>
> NFP +94k
> Net revisions -48k, with Sep revised from 96k to 44k (lowest mthly gain
> since 2/04)But October revised up to 170,000, indicating Sep the low so far, and
> improvement since then. And the Fed surely remember Sep 11 meeting
> where the Aug employment number was reported down and later revised to
> a relatively strong up number.
> UE rate down from 4.727% to 4.658%
And the Fed is concerned a falling labor force participation rate due to demographics means labor tightening with fewer new jobs.
> Most important to me was the diffusion index dropping below 50 (more
> industries losing jobs than gaining jobs) for the first time since Sep 2003
Yes, but only just below to 49.8 from 53.
> Retail job change from -15k to +24k looks suspect and reflective of poor
> seasonal adjustment factor;likely borrowing heavily from Dec job gwth
> Index of aggregate hours up 0.1% and avg hrly earnings up 0.5% (off a low
> 0.2% last mth)
Might result in Fed upward revisions for q4 gdp?
>
> Base case for next week is -25bps on FF and -50bps on DR.
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
| Survey | 80K |
| Actual | 94K |
| Prior | 166K |
| Revised | 170K |
Better than forecasting, and jobs being added about as fast as the fed thinks possible given fed perception of current demographics – no slack evident. Sept revised down and October up to 170,000 so the chart looks fine.
Unemployment Rate (Nov)
| Survey | 4.8% |
| Actual | 4.7% |
| Prior | 4.7% |
| Revised | n/a |
Better than forecast, and still well below the fed’s ‘unspoken’ concern that anything below 5% is more than non-inflationary full employment level.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Nov)
| Survey | -15K |
| Actual | -11K |
| Prior | -21K |
| Revised | -15K |
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
| Survey | 0.3% |
| Actual | 0.5% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.1% |
Above expectations, nudges up inflation risk.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
| Survey | 3.8% |
| Actual | 3.8% |
| Prior | 3.8% |
| Revised | 3.6% |
Average Weekly Hours (Nov)
| Survey | 33.8 |
| Actual | 33.8 |
| Prior | 33.8 |
| Revised | n/a |
Total hours holding up nicely and growing some – could see Q4 GPD numbers revised up by some firms.
U. of Michigan Confidence (Dec P)
| Survey | 75.0 |
| Actual | 74.5 |
| Prior | 76.1 |
| Revised | n/a |
This is also from watching CNBC.
Consumer Credit (Oct)
| Survey | $5.0 |
| Actual | $4.7B |
| Prior | $3.7B |
| Revised | $3.2B |
Still in a reasonably narrow range.
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2007-12-06 US Economic Releases
Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 1)
| Survey | 335K |
| Actual | 338K |
| Prior | 352K |
| Revised | 353K |
Down from the week before, chart still looks like a modest up move has taken place. Still comfortably below the 375-400K level that would signal a slowdown.
Continuing Claims (Nov 24)
| Survey | 2620K |
| Actual | 2599K |
| Prior | 2665K |
| Revised | 2658K |
Also backing off from last week’s mini spike and not a problem for the fed at current levels.
Mortgage Delinquencies (3Q)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 5.59% |
| Prior | 5.12% |
| Revised | n/a |
Delinquencies up some, but probably not far from fed expectations.
ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY
| Survey | 2.4% |
| Actual | 3.5% |
| Prior | 5.12% |
| Revised | n/a |
These look fine – up a touch and no sign of collapse.
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2007-12-05 US Economic Releases
MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 30)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 25.5% |
| Prior | -4.3% |
| Revised | -5.2% |
Mortgage banking purchase index is holding above 400 since April, and up nicely year over year. The ‘multiple application’ story is getting old.
Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Nov)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -4.7% |
| Prior | -8.8% |
| Revised | n/a |
Modest improvement- doesn’t look like a recession has started.
ADP Employment Change (Nov)
| Survey | 50K |
| Actual | 189K |
| Prior | 106K |
| Revised | 119K |
No weakness here- prelude to Friday’s employment number.
Nonfarm Productivity (3QF)
| Survey | 5.9% |
| Actual | 6.3% |
| Prior | 4.9% |
| Revised | n/a |
More real output from the same amount of labor input, further questions the deflator for Q3.
Unit Labor Costs (3QF)
| Survey | -1.2% |
| Actual | -2.0% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
As above, the q3 deflator looked suspiciously low.
This should adjust with q4 numbers.
Factory Orders (Oct)
| Survey | 0.0% |
| Actual | 0.5% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.3% |
Boring, and not worse than Fed forecasts.
ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov)
| Survey | 55.0 |
| Actual | 54.1 |
| Prior | 55.8 |
| Revised | n/a |
It’s been drifting lower with falling budget deficit, but exports propping up gdp.
Probably not any worse than Fed forecasts.
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2007-12-04 US Economic Releases
From late yesterday..
ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 2)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -24 |
| Prior | -21 |
| Revised | n/a |
This is a function of CNBC’s reporting bias.
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2007-12-03 US Economic Releases
ISM was the big number – not a lot of new US numbers today.
Unch; but employment component down 4.2pts to below 50 and anecdotes not very comforting
and prices paid up, see below.
What Respondents are Saying..
- “Continued concerns regarding high oil prices, weak dollar and weak housing sector.” (Chemical Products)
- “Erratic market causing more difficulty in forecasting customer demand.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
- “Heavy truck market has not started recovering yet.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
- “Business is off by almost 50 percent over last year in the building products industry.” (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
- “More inquiries from international customers than domestic.” (Machinery)
The building products industry has been down for quite a while and exports are picking up the slack.
ISM Manufacturing (Nov)
| Survey | 50.8 |
| Actual | 50.8 |
| Prior | 50.9 |
| Revised | n/a |
ISM Prices Paid (Nov)
| Survey | 65.5 |
| Actual | 67.5 |
| Prior | 63.0 |
| Revised | n/a |
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2007-11-30 US Economic Releases
Summary:Nothing particularly alarming regarding balance of risks.Personal income and spending lower than expected. Questions are whether exports will continue pick up and support gdp, and whether this is weaker than the Fed’s Oct 31 projection. Deflator and core pce also up a touch, and year over year deflator heading north. As Karim indicated, core is inside the Fed’s ‘comfort zone’ but moving slightly towards the upper bound.Chicago PMI up, prices paid up 74.7 to 76.2Milwaukee pmi down, prices paid up to 61 from 56Lots of month end ‘evening up’ in the markets that might be reversed Monday. Month end effects should be over by Tuesday.
Personal Income (Oct)
| Survey | 0.4% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | 0.4% |
| Revised | n/a |
Personal Spending (Oct)
| Survey | 0.3% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | 0.3% |
| Revised | n/a |
PCE Deflator YoY(Oct)
| Survey | 2.8% |
| Actual | 2.9% |
| Prior | 2.4% |
| Revised | n/a |
PCE Core MoM (Oct)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
PCE Core YoY (Oct)
| Survey | 1.8% |
| Actual | 1.9% |
| Prior | 1.8% |
| Revised | 1.9% |
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Nov)
| Survey | 50.5 |
| Actual | 52.9 |
| Prior | 49.7 |
| Revised | n/a |
Construction Spending MoM (Oct)
| Survey | -0.3% |
| Actual | -0.8% |
| Prior | 0.3% |
| Revised | 0.2% |
NAPM-Milwaukee(Oct)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 60.0 |
| Prior | 63.0 |
| Revised | n/a |
Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Index SA
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2007-11-29 US Economic Releases
GCP Annualized (3QP)
| Survey | 4.8% |
| Actual | 4.9% |
| Prior | 3.9% |
| Revised | n/a |
Keeps coming in above expectations.
Personal Consumption (3QP)
| Survey | 2.9% |
| Actual | 2.7% |
| Prior | 3.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
A touch higher bust still seems very low.
GDP Price Index (3QP)
| Survey | 0.8% |
| Actual | 0.9% |
| Prior | 0.8% |
| Revised | n/a |
A touch higher bust still seems very low.
Core PCE QoQ (3QP)
| Survey | 1.8% |
| Actual | 1.8% |
| Prior | 1.8% |
| Revised | n/a |
Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 24)
| Survey | 330K |
| Actual | 352K |
| Prior | 330K |
| Revised | 329K |
Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.
Continuing Claims (Nov 17)
| Survey | 2575K |
| Actual | 2665K |
| Prior | 2566K |
| Revised | 2553K |
Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.
New Home Sales (Oct)
| Survey | 750K |
| Actual | 728K |
| Prior | 770K |
| Revised | 716K |
Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.
New Home Sales MoM (Oct)
| Survey | -2.6% |
| Actual | 1.7% |
| Prior | 4.8% |
| Revised | -0.1% |
Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.
Help Wanted Index (Oct)
| Survey | 23 |
| Actual | 23 |
| Prior | 24 |
| Revised | n/a |
Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.
House Price Index QoQ (3Q)
| Survey | -0.5% |
| Actual | -0.4% |
| Prior | 0.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
Moving lower.
Do you think any of this is below fed expectations as of October 31st?
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