Maybe go visit for Thanksgiving?
;)
Daily Archives: March 21, 2013 @ 3:27 pm (Thursday)
Cyprus Funding Need and Sources
In line with prior info.
Also, Europe is entirely dependent on Russia for a large chunk of its gas and some oil as well.
They made Russia promise and cross their hearts never to cut it off, but they could jack up the price to cover Cyprus…
Contrasting Eur/U.S. Data/Forecasts
Karim writes:
The single most important economic indicator in Europe was released today, the Composite PMI.
For March, it was expected to increase to 48.2 from 47.5; it fell to 46.5, the lowest level since November.
In the U.S.:
- 4-week average of initial claims fell to a 5yr low
- Existing single family home sales up 8.9% y/y and multi-family units up 22% y/y
- FHFA new home prices up 6.5% y/y and NAR measure up 11.5% y/y
- Philly Fed bounced 14 points in March and the Flash PMI (national measure) rose from 54.3 to 54.9 in March.
So, latest NowCasting forecasts:
Europe: Q1 -0.8% and Q2 revised from +0.1% to -1.05% after todays data
U.S.: Q1 +2.6% and Q2 revised from 2.8% to 3.4% over the past week (they will not account for sequester hit as forecast simply based on incoming data flow).
Euro PMI (white) vs U.S. ISM Mfg (orange) and Services (yellow): link
JPY Market Color Mar/21/2013
Debt to GDP over 200%
0 rates for decades
Strong currency
Alarmingly low term structure of rates
Recent yen weakness looking ‘fundamental’ as trade goes negative maybe until nukes are restarted and ‘replacement’ gas and oil imports go back to where they were.
Trade going negative after initial yen weakening due to ‘j curve’ effect where initially actual quantities of imports stay pretty much the same but prices are higher. Only some time later do quantities respond to the higher price.
Yen:
Full size image
German Manufacturing Output Surprisingly Contracted in March
Warning- a weakening economy will make their deficit go up!
;)
German Manufacturing Output Surprisingly Contracted in March
By Zoe Schneeweiss
March 21 (Bloomberg) — A German index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry declined to 48.9 this month from 50.3 in February, while a services gauge fell to 51.6 from 54.7, London-based Markit Economics said in an e-mailed report today. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Economists had forecast a reading of 50.5 for the manufacturing index and 55.0 for the services gauge, according to the median estimates in Bloomberg News surveys.