Interest income loss from rate cuts

Word’s getting around, from CS:

The side-effect of the Fed’s near-zero interest medicine – the collapse in personal interest income over the last few years. The decline in interest income actually dwarfs estimates of debt service savings. Exhibit 2 compares the evolution of household debt service costs and personal interest income. Both aggregates peaked around $1.4 trn at roughly the same time – the middle of 2008. According to our analysis of Federal Reserve figures, total debt service – which includes mortgage and consumer servicing costs – is down $206bn from the peak. The contraction in interest income amounts to roughly $407bn from its peak, more than double the windfall from lower debt service.

Saudi Crude Oil Production

Saudi production up a tad for July.

With the Saudis posting prices and letting their clients buy all they want at the posted prices, this shows marginal global net demand has yet to fall off, and, in fact increased a bit.

And, if Saudi excess capacity isn’t as high as the 12.5 million bpd reported a relatively small supply disruption could result in an immediate spike in price.