Daily Archive: Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Breakout – 5 yr tips 5 years forward

This is one of the Fed’s pet inflation expectation indicators. The commodity surge continues, and food/energy/import/export prices are finding their way into core inflation. Fed funds futures still pricing in a near 100% chance of a 50 cut on March 18. ...Read More

2008-02-20 US Economic Releases

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 15) Survey n/a Actual 357.6 Prior 403.9 Revised n/a MBAVREFI Index (Feb 15) Survey n/a Actual 3533.8 Prior 4901.5 Revised n/a These look very weak. Banks are not included, so there’s a chance the banks could be taking market share from the mortgage bankers. Consumer Price Index MoM (Jan) ...Read More

2008-02-20 EU Highlights

Should the Fed turn it’s attention to inflation, it will find itself way behind that curve. The US cpi is about 100 bp higher than the eurozone cpi’s, including the UK where rates are north of 5%. With US inflation where it is, the mainstream calculation for the appropriate ff rate is ...Read More

Lukoil cuts German oil exports by pipeline on pricing

Russia exercising it’s pricing power as a swing producer as well. Lukoil Cuts German Oil Exports by Pipeline on Pricing (Update1) by Torrey Clark and Thom Rose (Bloomberg) OAO Lukoil, Russia’s largest independent oil producer, may cut March shipments of crude oil to Germany by pipeline, continuing the halt ordered yesterday because ...Read More