2008 swap line advances as a % of GDP


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Swap lines as % of GDP by CB, year end 2008 (a bit dated now in Feb but anyway FYI).

Swap lines as % of GDP

BANK %S
ECB (16) 2.42%
Swiss 5.11%
BOE 1.07%
BOJ 2.53%
Aussie 2.13%
Sweden 4.87%
Denmark 4.06%
Norway 1.71%
Korea 1.09%

Resp,

Source Federal Reserve Statistical Summary:
“At end-December 2008 swaps outstanding were $553.728 billion: $291.352 billion with the European Central Bank, $25.175 billion with the Swiss National Bank, $33.08 billion with the Bank of England, $122.716 billion with the Bank of Japan, $22.830 billion with the Reserve Bank of Australia, $25 billion with the Bank of Sweden, $15 billion with the National Bank of Denmark, $8.225 billion with the Bank of Norway and $10.350 with the Bank of Korea.”


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Re: Update- ECB not to terminate key Fed swap line provisions


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(email exchange)

Thanks- good heads up by Matt Franko!

With this clarification the ECB seems to recognize the systemic support these swap lines provide, and will have to find other means of keeping a lid on the euro if that’s what they want to do.

>   
>   On Tue, Dec 23, 2008 at 9:21 AM, Cesar wrote:
>   
>   I agree with Franko comments.
>   
>   See press release from Dec 19th below.
>   
>   The Governing Council of the ECB has decided, in agreement
>   with other central banks including the Federal Reserve, to
>   continue conducting US dollar liquidity-providing operations at
>   terms of 7, 28 and 84 days. These operations will continue to
>   take the form of repurchase operations against ECB-eligible
>   collateral and to be carried out as fixed rate tenders with full
>   allotment. Given the limited demand, the operations in the
>   form of EUR/USD foreign exchange swaps will be discontinued
>   at the end of January but could be started again in the
>   future, if needed in view of prevailing market circumstances.
>   

>   
>   n Mon, Dec 22, 2008 at 8:05 PM, Warren wrote:
>   
>   Cesar, please check this out, thanks!
>   
>   W
>   

Matt says:

Mr Mosler,

I think the swap lines between the ECB and the US Fed may not be the same swap operations that last week the ECB talked about terminating at the end of Jan 09.

The ECB currently offers term US$ liquidity (US$ that has been provided from the Fed via a previous swap between central banks) 2 ways. 1 way is via a collateralized operation, and 2 is a swap of euros for dollars.

On 15 October the ECB announced the swap facility:

“Provision of US dollar liquidity through foreign exchange swaps: As from 21 October 2008, and at least until the end of January 2009, in parallel with the existing tenders in which the Eurosystem offers US dollar liquidity against ECB-eligible collateral, the Eurosystem will also offer US dollar liquidity through EUR/USD foreign exchange swaps. The EUR/USD foreign exchange swap tenders will be carried out at a fixed price (i.e. swap point) with full allotment. Further details on the tender procedures for EUR/USD foreign exchange swaps will be released shortly.”

These “swap” type of transactions look like they never caught on (real Euros would have to be provided after all!), as most of the USD provided by the ECB ($100s of billions) have gone the “collateralized” auction route. For instance last week they did a 28-day where the collateralized operation had 47 bidders for $47.5 billion and the swap had one bidder for $70 million. So I think the ECB is just eliminating this liquidity swap vehicle because of “lack of interest”, but plans on providing US$ liquidity via collateralized auctions until at least the April 30 current expiration of the overall ECB to US Fed swap lines.

I could be mis-reading this but I offer my observations.


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Swap line update


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Good news-

The Fed line item believed to be the swap line advances fell a bit to 608 billion from 615 billion the week before.

Not sure, for example, if they are valuing the dollars extended to the ECB or the euros held by the Fed as collateral.

The lines are set to expire in April.

And no way to tell whether the foreign $ borrowing is to fund $ assets already on their books, or whether they are funding beyond that.

The swap lines take some pressure off the process of covering dollar losses by selling local currencies to buy dollars to cover dollar losses.

This helps support, for example, the euro vs the dollar.

However, uncovered dollar losses grow with any depreciation of the local currency, so that risk remains until the currency aspect of the losses are ‘covered.’
This is still completely off the Congressional radar screen.

No one even asked why the Fed would loan over 600 billion to foreign central banks which can be used to support their auto industry at our expense.

And no one indicated that what the autos need most are buyers who can afford the new cars.

A payroll tax holiday would give the automakers and financial sector what they need most- consumers who can afford to make their payments.

(And how about those Democrats critical of companies paying high wages- time have changed!!!)

(Also, Congress could change tax laws to the point of eliminating corp. travel by private jet if they wanted to. Instead they give tax advantages and then
are critical of their utilization. But that’s another story…)


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Fed swap line advances up to 573.9 billion


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Bad news, the Feds outstanding (unlimited) swap line draws were up $27.9 billion to $573.9 from last week’s report.

That’s a larger increase than the approximately 24 billion increase the week before.

This is not good.

Each increase gets us closer to the day when the Fed says ‘no mas’.

Causing the euro’s decline to accelerate as the eurozone faces collapse.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/


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