Fed Speak: Yellen the Dove


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There have been a lot of Fed speakers; so, I’ve selected a few comments on Yellen’s speech, as she has been deemed the most dovish Fed bank president.

Note the shift in rhetoric from ‘market functioning’ to inflation.

Of course, the FOMC’s idea of getting tough and fighting inflation has been to only cut 25 basis points.

Data dependent, this seems to be changing.

It could be the signs of passthrough from headline to core CPI or signs inflation expectations are elevating (as per their recent comments).

They also seem to have lost confidence in their inflation forecasts and may not be giving their future inflation indicators the same weight as in the past 6 months.

Fed’s Yellen: Funds rate been cut enough for now

by Ros Krasny

(Reuters) – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that the federal funds rate has been lowered far enough for now after months of aggressive central bank rate cuts.

The Fed’s key monetary policy tool ‘has come way down,’ Yellen said while critiquing presentations on the economy at a symposium for college students organized by the San Francisco Fed and the Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference.

Yellen said the Fed continues to grapple with difficult policy choices but restated that high inflation was a worry. ‘The 1970s were a horrible period. If there’s one thing that has to be very high priority, we don’t want to go back to a period that is anything like that,’ she said.


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Reuters: Yellen the Dove turing more hawkish

Yellen: Fed faces unpleasant mix on prices, growth

by Ros Krasny

CHICAGO (Reuters) – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen said on Friday that the U.S. central bank faces an “unpleasant combination” of risks to inflation and growth in setting interest rate policy.

“The U.S. economy is particularly exposed to downside risks from the unwinding of the housing bubble and disruptions in financial markets,” Yellen said in remarks prepared for Banque de France’s symposium on globalization and monetary policy in Paris.
“There is some slack now in the U.S. labor market and, if these downside economic risks materialize, quite a bit more slack could emerge,” she said, which would tend to dampen inflation.

The dove position: OK to cut now because inflation coming down later anyway.

Still, Yellen said inflation risks were “roughly balanced” and that the Fed “cannot afford to take for granted that inflation expectations will remain well-anchored.”

The hawk position: if you let inflation expectations elevate (and there are signs this is happening), it’s too late, and a much larger output gap is needed to bring it back down.