2008-12-12 USER


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Producer Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -2.2%
Prior -2.8%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

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Producer Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 5.2%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Nov)

Survey 4.2%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.4%
Revised n/a

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -1.8%
Prior -2.8%
Revised -2.9%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.4%
Prior -4.6%
Revised n/a

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.8%
Actual -1.6%
Prior -2.2%
Revised -2.4%

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Business Inventories MoM (Oct)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.4%

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Business Inventories YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 5.4%
Revised n/a

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University of Michigan Confidence (Dec P)

Survey 54.5
Actual 59.1
Prior 55.3
Revised n/a

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University of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Dec P)


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2008-01-15 US Economic Releases

2008-01-15 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

2008-01-15 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

2008-01-15 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey 7.1%
Actual 6.3%
Prior 7.2%
Revised n/a

2008-01-15 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Inflation pressures remain alarming.

2007 highest inflation since the early 1980s, when inflation was on the way down.

Last hit this number on the way up was in the 1970s.


2008-01-15 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Dec)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.4%
Prior 1.2%
Revised 1.0%

Previous month still very high, two month average looks OK.


2008-01-15 Retail Sales YoY % Change

Retail Sales YoY % Change

Year over year numbers still modestly moving back up.


2008-01-15 Retail Sales Less Autos

Retail Sales Less Autos (Dec)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.4%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 1.7%

Same as above.


2008-01-15 Empire Manufacturing

Empire Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey 10.0
Actual 9.0
Prior 10.3
Revised 9.8

2008-01-15 Empire Manufacturing TABLE

Empire Manufacturing TABLE

A close look at the table shows prices still very strong.


2008-01-15 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Nov)

Survey 0.4%
Actual
Prior 0.1%
Revised

Chart looks OK – no excessive build.


Data not in, until 5PM EST..

ABC Consumer Confidence (Jan 13)

Survey -21
Actual
Prior -20
Revised

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2007-12-13 US Economic Releases

2007-12-13 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.5%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Off the charts!


2007-12-13 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

Core moving up to headline?
That’s the fed’s worst nightmare now.


2007-12-13 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 6.0%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

Moving higher from an already too high number.


2007-12-13 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Nov)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

The ‘anchor’ is slipping.


2007-12-13 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Nov)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Consumer spent above energy price hikes.
Reserves the softness of the 0.2% spending number reported for October.


2007-12-13 Retail Sales Less Auto

Retail Sales Less Auto (Nov)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Very strong.


2007-12-13 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 1)

Survey 335K
Actual 333K
Prior 338K
Revised 340K

Fed sees no slack in the labor markets.


2007-12-13 Continuing Claims

Counting Claims (Dec 1)

Survey 2599K
Actual 2639K
Prior 2599K
Revised 2601K

Some weakness here but overwhelmed by the other numbers being reported.


2007-12-13 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Oct)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

No obvious signals here.


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