Tag Archives: NFIB

small business optimism index

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The post weather ‘bounce’ didn’t even reverse the prior month’s drop:


Highlights
There are signs of confidence in the small business optimism index which jumped 2.0 points to 93.4 to nearly reverse a 2.7 point downswing in February. The March gain is led by expectations for future sales and by plans to build inventories — both pointing to expectations of building strength. Of the 10 components, six are up in the month, two are unchanged, and only two are down. Unfortunately, of the two that are down one is hiring plans.

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Bear Stearns U.S. Economics: Small business optimism down

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The NFIB small business optimism index fell to 94.4 in November from 96.2 in October. Although the net percentage of firms planning to expand was little changed at 13% in November versus 14% in October, the net percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve fell sharply to -10.0 from -2.0.

Watching too much CNBC.

In November, 7% of firms reported that credit was harder to get, up from 6% in October. The NFIB noted “Credit conditions continue to look normal … There is no credit crunch on Main Street, all the angst appears to be confined to Wall Street and its observers” (November’s percentage of firms reporting that credit was hard to get compares to an average of 5% for the 21-year history of the monthly survey).

Agreed, and this goes unreported in the financial press.

The percentage of small firms planning to increase employment was unchanged at 11% in November, although 19% of firms reported jobs as being “hard to fill,” down from 22% in October.

Employment holding up confirming other data.

Although the net percentage of firms raising selling prices slipped to 14% in November from 15% in October, the percentage of firms planning to raise prices rose to 26% from 22%. The NFIB noted “There was no significant progress on the inflation front.”

Right – supports risks tilting toward inflation.

♥

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