2009-03-16 USER

Posted on March 16, 2009 @ 11:04 am (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Released 8:30 EST)
Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Released 8:30 EST)
Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Released 8:30 EST)
Net Long Term TIC Flows (Released 9:00 EST)
Total Net TIC Flows (Released 9:00 EST)
TIC ALLX (Released 9:00 EST)
TIC TABLE 1 (Released 9:00 EST)
TIC TABLE 2 (Released 9:00 EST)
TIC TABLE 3 (Released 9:00 EST)
Industrial Production MoM (Released 9:15 EST)
Industrial Production YoY (Released 9:15 EST)
Capacity Utilization (Released 9:15 EST)
Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Released 9:15 EST)
Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Released 9:15 EST)
Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Released 9:15 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index (Released 13:00 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 1 (Released 13:00 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 2 (Released 13:00 EST)

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Mar)

Survey	-30.80
Actual	-38.23
Prior	-34.65
Revised	n/a

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Mar)

the

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Mar)

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Net Long Term TIC Flows (Jan)

Survey	$45.0B
Actual	-$43.0B
Prior	$34.8B
Revised	$34.7B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-$148.9B
Prior	$74.0B
Revised	$86.2B

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TIC ALLX (Jan)

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TIC TABLE 1 (Jan)

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TIC TABLE 2 (Jan)

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TIC TABLE 3 (Jan)

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Industrial Production MoM (Feb)

Survey	-1.3%
Actual	-1.4%
Prior	-1.8%
Revised	-1.9%

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Industrial Production YoY (Feb)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-11.2%
Prior	-10.1%
Revised	n/a

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Capacity Utilization (Feb)

Survey	71%
Actual	70.9%
Prior	72.0%
Revised	71.9%

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Feb)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Feb)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Feb)

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)

Survey	9
Actual	9
Prior	9
Revised	n/a

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 1 (Mar)

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 2 (Mar)

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2009-02-17 USER

Posted on February 17, 2009 @ 9:44 am (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

[Skip to the end]

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Released 8:30 EST)
Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Released 8:30 EST)
Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Released 8:30 EST)
Net Long Term TIC Flows (Released 9:00 EST)
Total Net TIC Flows (Released 9:00 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index (Released 13:00 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 1 (Released 13:00 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 2 (Released 13:00 EST)

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Feb)

Survey	-23.75
Actual	-34.65
Prior	-22.20
Revised	n/a

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Feb)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Feb)

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Net Long Term TIC Flows (Dec)

Survey	$20.0B
Actual	$34.8B
Prior	-$21.7B
Revised	-$25.6B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Dec)

Survey	n/a
Actual	$74.0B
Prior	$56.8B
Revised	$61.3B

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb)

Survey	8
Actual	9
Prior	8
Revised	n/a

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 1 (Feb)

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 2 (Feb)

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2008-09-16 USER

Posted on September 16, 2008 @ 9:26 am (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Released 7:45 EST)
ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Released 7:45 EST)
Redbook MoM (Released 8:55 EST)
Redbook Weekly YoY (Released 8:55 EST)
ICSC-Redbook Comparison TABLE (Released 8:55 EST)
Consumer Price Index MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
Consumer Price Index YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
CPI Core Index SA (Released 8:30 EST)
Consumer Price Index NSA (Released 8:30 EST)
Consumer Price Index ALLX 1 (Released 8:30 EST)
Consumer Price Index ALLX 2 (Released 8:30 EST)
Consumer Price Index TABLE (Released 8:30 EST)
Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Released 8:30 EST)
Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Released 8:30 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index (Released 13:00 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE (Released 13:00 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 2 (Released 13:00 EST)
FOMC Rate Decision (Released 14:15 EST)

ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 16)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-1.6
Prior	-0.1
Revised	n/a

Not a good sign, but partially seasonal (see year over year below). Shoppers getting scared by the financial sector again?

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 16)

Survey	n/a
Actual	1.30
Prior	1.90
Revised	n/a

Down a bit, but still positive.

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Redbook MoM (Sep 16)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-1.10
Prior	-0.8
Revised	n/a

Same, down some but somewhat seasonal (see year over year).

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Redbook Weekly YoY (Sep 16)

Survey	n/a
Actual	1.40
Prior	1.80
Revised	n/a

Down some but still positive and off the bottom.

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ICSC-Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 16)

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Consumer Price Index MoM (Aug)

Survey	-0.1%
Actual	-0.1%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

Down only a tenth even with the big drop in commodities.

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CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Aug)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	n/a

No let up here but this lags headline.

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Consumer Price Index YoY (Aug)

Survey	5.5%
Actual	5.4%
Prior	5.6%
Revised	n/a

Not much of a drop here as crude fell last august as well.

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CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Aug)

Survey	2.6%
Actual	2.5%
Prior	2.5%
Revised	n/a

Way above the Fed’s target and comfort zone

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CPI Core Index SA (Aug)

Survey	n/a
Actual	216.650
Prior	216.230
Revised	n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (Aug)

Survey	219.300
Actual	219.086
Prior	219.964
Revised	n/a

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Consumer Price Index ALLX 1 (Aug)

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Consumer Price Index ALLX 2 (Aug)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE (Aug)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Aug)

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep )

Survey	17
Actual	18
Prior	16
Revised	n/a

A touch better than expected, perking up a bit, but still very low historically and could spring back quickly with the agencies back in action.

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE (Sep)

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 2 (Sep)

Future sales looking pretty good.

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FOMC Rate Decision (Sep 16)

Survey	2.00%
Actual	2.00%
Prior	2.00%
Revised	n/a

Wonder if Fisher cut a deal not to dissent for the Hawkish inflation language

Karim writes:

Headline CPI -0.137% m/m and core CPI up .194% m/m

Trending items stayed on trend (OER +0.1% and medical +0.2%)

Volatile items a bit of a wash

Recreation (+0.5) and apparel (+1.0%) higher than normal

Lodging away from home (-1%) lower than normal

Fed view likely reinforced that decline in commodity prices plus growing economic slack, especially in labor market, will dampen inflation into 2009.

Decision (no cut) may be hawkish relative to expectations, but wording mostly dovish.

1st paragraph- All changes highlight downside risks to growth; slowing export growth a new wrinkle in addition to the usual financial market strains, labor market weakness and housing.

2nd paragraph-Identical to prior except mention of inflation expectations has been dropped; so a downgrading of concern over inflation.

3rd paragraph-‘Stand ready to act’ but no mention of ‘in a timely manner’.

Fisher dropped his dissent.

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2008-08-18 US Economic Releases

Posted on August 18, 2008 @ 9:15 pm (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Released 13:00 EST)
NAHB TABLE 1 (Released 13:00 EST)
NAHB TABLE 2 (Released 13:00 EST)

NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug)

Survey	16
Actual	16
Prior	16
Revised	n/a

What has been looking like a bottom is now again softening, but it’s so low seems it will go mostly sideways before it goes up.

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NAHB TABLE 1 (Aug)

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NAHB TABLE 2 (Aug)

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2008-06-16 US Economic Releases

Posted on June 16, 2008 @ 10:21 am (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

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Empire Manufacturing (Released 8:30 EST)
Empire Manufacturing TABLE (Released 8:30 EST)
Net Long-term TIC Flows (Released 9:00 EST)
Total Net TIC Flows (Released 9:00 EST)
TIC TABLE (Released 9:00 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index (Released 13:00 EST)
NAHB ALLX (Released 13:00 EST)

Empire Manufacturing (Jun)

Survey	-2.0
Actual	-8.7
Prior	-3.2
Revised	n/a

Empire Manufacturing TABLE (Jun)

Looks like the worst is over, but the economy remains on the weak side.

Prices paid still way high.

Looks like number of employees up as well.

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Net Long-term TIC Flows (Apr)

Survey	$63.3B
Actual	$115.1B
Prior	$80.4B
Revised	$79.6B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Apr)

Survey	$42.5B
Actual	$60.6B
Prior	-$48.2B
Revised	$79.6B

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TIC TABLE (Apr)

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun)

Survey	19
Actual	18
Prior	19
Revised	n/a

A bit worse than expected. Confidence is down all over due to food/crude/import prices. Might be the case here.

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun)

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2008-05-15 US Economic Releases

Posted on May 15, 2008 @ 8:40 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

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Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
Continuing Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
Empire Manufacturing (Released 8:30 EST)
Net Long-term TIC Flows (Released 9:00 EST)
Total Net TIC Flows (Released 9:00 EST)
Industrial Production (Released 9:00 EST)
Capacity Utilization (Released 9:15 EST)
Philadelphia Fed. (Released 10:00 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index (Released 13:00 EST)

Initial Jobless Claims (May 10)

Survey	370K
Actual	371K
Prior	365K
Revised	n/a

Looks like it’s past the peak.

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Continuing Claims (May 3)

Survey	3035K
Actual	3060K
Prior	3020K
Revised	3032K

Looks like it’s not past the peak.

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Empire Manufacturing (May)

Survey	0.0
Actual	-3.2
Prior	0.6
Revised	n/a

Still off the bottom, needs another month to see where it’s going.

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Net Long-term TIC Flows (Mar)

Survey	$62.5B
Actual	$80.4B
Prior	$72.5B
Revised	$64.9B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Mar)

Survey	$67.5B
Actual	-$48.2B
Prior	$64.1B
Revised	$48.9B

In general I expect these types of numbers to follow the trade gap down.

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Industrial Production (Apr)

Survey	-0.3%
Actual	-0.7%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	0.2%

Still weak. Been weak for 50 years.

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Capacity Utilization (Apr)

Survey	80.1%
Actual	79.7%
Prior	80.5%
Revised	80.4%

Weak, but not recession levels yet.

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Philadelphia Fed. (May)

Survey	-19.0
Actual	-15.6
Prior	-24.9
Revised	n/a

Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

Perking up from low levels,
prices high and moving higher

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NAHB Housing Market Index (May)

Survey	20
Actual	19
Prior	20
Revised	n/a

Still off the lows and looking like a bottom to me.

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2008-04-15 US Economic Releases

Posted on April 15, 2008 @ 8:46 am (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Producer Price Index
Empire Manufacturing
NAHB Housing Market Index
ABC Consumer Confidence

Producer Price Index MoM (Mar)

Survey	0.6%
Actual	1.1%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	n/a

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.5%
Revised	n/a

Producer Price Index YoY (Mar)

Survey	6.2%
Actual	6.9%
Prior	6.4%
Revised	n/a

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)

Survey	2.8%
Actual	2.7%
Prior	2.4%
Revised	n/a

Producer Price Index TABLE

Inflation ripping.

From Karim:

Headline/Core divergence continues

Headline up 1.1% m/m and 6.9% y/y

Core up 0.2% m/m and 2.7% y/y

Food (+1.2%) and gas (+1.3%) lead the way up, computers (-3.2%) and passenger cars (-0.2%) lead the way down.

Intermediate and crude pressures remain intense, rising 2.3% and 8.0% respectively for the month

Further margin squeeze likely to put further downward pressure on capex, especially in light of weak economy and credit conditions (see below)

Empire jumps from -22.2 to 0.6. Index quite volatile and 10-20 point moves per month the norm as of late.

6mth expectations deteriorate from 25.8 to 19.6.

Shipments show largest jump from -5 to +17 (for current conditions)

Employment and average workweek both extremely weak

Capex intentions fall from 18 to 11.5

Empire Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey	-17.0
Actual	0.6
Prior	-22.2
Revised	n/a

Survey is colored by subjective recessions fears bouncing back some.

NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr)

Survey	20
Actual	20
Prior	20
Revised	n/a

Still looks to me like a bottom.

ABC Consumer Confidence (Apr 13)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-39
Prior	-34
Revised	n/a

Still looking weak. Much like an export economy

2008-03-17 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 17, 2008 @ 9:24 am (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)

Survey	20
Actual	20
Prior	20
Revised	n/a

Still looking like housing may have bottomed October/November, as previously discussed.

Current Account Balance (4Q)

Survey	-$183.8B
Actual	-$172.9B
Prior	-$178.5B
Revised	-$177.4B

The dollar flight picks up steam.

Empire Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey	-7.4
Actual	-22.2
Prior	-11.7
Revised	n/a

Empire Manufacturing TABLE

The chart looks far worse than the table, which actually looks somewhat constructive.

And prices up (surprise!).

Industrial Production (Feb)

Survey	-0.1%
Actual	-0.5%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	0.1%

Q1 looking weak as advertised.

Capacity Utilization (Feb)

Survey	81.2%
Actual	80.9%
Prior	81.5%
Revised	n/a

Some slack forming but not much.

2008-02-19 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 19, 2008 @ 3:14 pm (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb)

Survey	19
Actual	20
Prior	19
Revised	–

Still a possible bottom forming.

Coming out later today..

ABC Consumer Confidence (Feb 17)

Survey	-37
Actual	—
Prior	-37
Revised	—

[comments]

2008-01-16 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 16, 2008 @ 4:08 pm (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Average Mortgage Purchasing Index (Jan 11)

Survey	n/a
Actual	461.20
Prior	414.00
Revised	n/a

Mortgage Refi’s (Jan 11)

Survey	n/a
Actual	3575.50
Prior	2494.20
Revised	n/a

Purchase index back on uptrend, refi way up. Lower rates and return of market functioning coming together nicely.

Still looks like housing could have bottomed October/November, but jury is still out pending data and revisions.

JP Morgan mtg revenue spiked up as JPM gains market share in mtg markets.

Houses are cheaper, lenders aggressive with real buyers, and income has continued higher.

See Mortgage applications soar.

Consumer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.3%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	n/a

Consumer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey	4.1%
Actual	4.1%
Prior	4.3%
Revised	n/a

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey	2.4%
Actual	2.4%
Prior	2.3%
Revised	n/a

See Food/fuel/$ bakes in core.

Industrial Production (Dec)

Survey	-0.2%
Actual	0.0%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	n/a

Graph looks OK – holding its own!

Capacity Utilization (Dec)

Survey	81.2%
Actual	81.4%
Prior	81.5%
Revised	81.6%

Drifting off some, but still at a relatively high level.

NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan)

Survey	19
Actual	19
Prior	19
Revised	18

Rounding bottom?

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