Tag Archives: MBA Mortgage Applications

2008-01-30 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-30 MBAVPRCH + 4 Wk Ave + 12 Wk Ave

MBAVPRCH Index + 4 Wk Ave + 12 Wk Ave

From Karim:
very volatile series-see chart-white line is purchase index-purple line is 4wk avg and green line is 12wk avg-latter is probably best indicator of trend and looks like still heading lower. Of course this series also reflects multiple applications for same home purchase, which is more likely over the past few months in light of tighter standards for many borrowers, so probably have to adjust for that compared to same series a year ago.

2008-01-30 MBAVREFI

MBA Refinancing Index (Jane 25)

Survey n/a
Actual 5103.6
Prior 4178.2
Revised n/a

Refi index positive for ‘market functioning’, but purchase index could be softening.

As before, winter housing numbers are volatile.

2008-01-30 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Jan)

Survey 40K
Actual 130K
Prior 40K
Revised 37K

Not the stuff of recession. While not a reliable predictor of Friday’s payroll report, it is a ‘real’ number as it’s ADP’s report of 392,000 business it services.

2008-01-30 GDP Annualized

GDP Annualized (4Q A)

Survey 1.2%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

Lower than expected but still positive, consumer up 2% which is far from recession, and final sales for domestic purchases were up 1.4%, and the Dec export number won’t be reported until Feb 14. The durable goods number yesterday may portend a higher than estimated export number for the next Q4 GDP revised report. Inventories were burned off by 1.25% of GDP, which is also generally not indicative of recession.

2008-01-30 Personal Consumption

Personal Consumption (4Q A)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.8%
Revised n/a

Down but not terrible, and not the stuff of recession

2008-01-30 GDP Price Index

GDP Price Index (4Q A)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 1.0%
Revised n/a

Not good.

2008-01-30 Core PCE QoQ

Core PCE QoQ (4Q A)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.7%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Very troubling to the Fed. Mainstream theory says you can’t let core elevate. The cost to bring it down is much higher than any possible losses due to near term weakness caused by keeping rates high.

2008-01-30 FOMC Rate Decision

FOMC Rate Decision (Jan 30)

Survey 3.0%
Actual 3.0%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

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2008-01-23 US Daily Releases

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2008-01-23 MBA Purchase Index SA

MBA Purchase Index SA (Jan 18)

Survey n/a
Actual 439.90
Prior 461.20
Revised n/a

No recession here.

Mtg apps seem to be continuing on the upward trend that started several months ago.

2008-01-23 MBA Refinancing Index SA

MBA Refinancing Index SA (Jan 18)

Survey n/a
Actual 4178.20
Prior 3575.5
Revised n/a

And the refi machine is going full bore as well.

It was feared credit worthy borrowers would not have access to credit to refi from higher rate mtgs.

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2008-01-16 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-16 Mortgage Applications

Average Mortgage Purchasing Index (Jan 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 461.20
Prior 414.00
Revised n/a

2008-01-16 Mortgage Applications

Mortgage Refi’s (Jan 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 3575.50
Prior 2494.20
Revised n/a

Purchase index back on uptrend, refi way up. Lower rates and return of market functioning coming together nicely.

Still looks like housing could have bottomed October/November, but jury is still out pending data and revisions.

JP Morgan mtg revenue spiked up as JPM gains market share in mtg markets.

Houses are cheaper, lenders aggressive with real buyers, and income has continued higher.

See Mortgage applications soar.

2008-01-16 Consumer Price Index MoM

Consumer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

2008-01-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

2008-01-16 Consumer Price Index YoY

Consumer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey 4.1%
Actual 4.1%
Prior 4.3%
Revised n/a

2008-01-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

See Food/fuel/$ bakes in core.

2008-01-16 Industrial Production

Industrial Production (Dec)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

Graph looks OK – holding its own!

2008-01-16 Capacity Utilization

Capacity Utilization (Dec)

Survey 81.2%
Actual 81.4%
Prior 81.5%
Revised 81.6%

Drifting off some, but still at a relatively high level.

2008-01-16 NAHB Housing Market Index

NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan)

Survey 19
Actual 19
Prior 19
Revised 18

Rounding bottom?

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2008-01-09 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-09 MBA Mortgage Applications Purchasing Index

MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 32.2%
Prior -11.6%
Revised n/a

As expected, purchase applications sprung back after the annual fall of in late Dec.

Markets were concerned this wouldn’t happen this year.

Refi index up indicates market functioning returning here as well.

30 year mtg rate down to 5.73% – way lower than August.

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2008-01-03 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-03 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 28)

Survey n/a
Actual -11/6%
Prior -7.6%
Revised n/a

Last December number – purchase applications normally shoot back up in January.

2008-01-03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.7%
Prior -4.7%
Revised n/a

Graph looks OK.

2008-01-03 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Dec)

Survey 33K
Actual 40K
Prior 189K
Revised 173K

A touch better than expected, trending down some, but fed thinks there are fewer people left to hire. This is a real number as ADP reports the actual number of people on its payroll system.

2008-01-03 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims

Survey 345K
Actual 336K
Prior 349K
Revised 357K

This kind of drop means there is no weakness indicated here.

2008-01-03 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Dec 22)

2008-01-03 Continuing Claims from 1980

Continuing Claims since 1980

Survey 2675K
Actual 2761K
Prior 2713K
Revised 2715K

Up some, but the long term graph looks fine.

2008-01-03 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Nov)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.7%

No weakness here.

2008-01-03 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey 16.0M
Actual 16.3M
Prior 16.2M
Revised n/a

Still on the soft side, but no disaster.

2008-01-03 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey 12.2M
Actual 12.5M
Prior 12.4M
Revised n/a

As above.

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2007-12-27 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-27 MBAVPCH Index

MBAVPCH Index

2007-12-27 MBA Mortgage Application

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 21)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.6%
Prior 19.5%
Revised n/a

Goes down this time every year and bounces back early January.

2007-12-27 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (Nov)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.4%

2007-12-27 Durables Ex Transporation

Durable Goods Ex Transportation (Nov)

Survey 0.5%
Actual -0.7%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.9%

Still drifting lower over time.

Domestic demand has been gradually softening for about a year and a half, as the lower deficit hiked the financial obligation ratios to levels where the rate of consumer credit expansion peaked.

2007-12-27 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 22)

Survey 340K
Actual 349K
Prior 346K
Revised 348K

2007-12-27 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Dec 15)

Survey 2645K
Actual 2713K
Prior 2646K
Revised 2638K

Drifting up very modestly.

2007-12-27 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (Dec)

Survey 86.5
Actual 88.6
Prior 87.3
Revised 87.8

CNBC gloominess peaked?

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2007-12-19 US Economic Releases

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Mortgage Applications Past 5 Years

Purchase Applications going back 5 years

2007-12-19 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 14)

Survey n/a
Actual -19.5
Prior 2.5
Revised n/a

Looks like it’s still turning up, and continues to be up year over year.

Note the sharp fall off every December into year end and quick bounce back early Jan.

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2007-12-12 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-12 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.5%
Prior 22.5%
Revised n/a

2007-12-07 Mortgage Bankers Association Purchas Index SA

Mortgage Bankers Association Purchasing Index SA

Looking very firm. Possible evidence housing may have bottomed.

Affordability is up with prices flat to down, rates down, and nominal income growing.

Yes, I’ve heard the stories about multiple applications, but even if relevant it’s been the case for several months.

2007-12-12 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Oct)

Survey -$58.4B
Actual -$57.8
Prior $-56.5B
Revised -$58.1B

Points to higher gross exports as oil prices were higher.

2007-12-12 Import Trade Index (MoM)

Import Trade Index MoM (Nov)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.7%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 1.4%

2007-12-12 Import Price Index (YoY)

Import Trade Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 11.0%
Actual 11.4%
Prior 9.6%
Revised 9.0%

First a series of very high inflation numbers coming this week.

2007-12-12 Monthly Budget Statement

Monthly Budget Statement

Survey -$95.0
Actual -$98.2
Prior -$75.0
Revised n/a

A 17 billion December 1 payment counted for November this year as it fell on a weekend; so, only about a 10 billion over last year. When this goes up in earnest, it is coincident with a slowdown. Watch this number closely!

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2007-12-05 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-05 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 25.5%
Prior -4.3%
Revised -5.2%

Mortgage banking purchase index is holding above 400 since April, and up nicely year over year. The ‘multiple application’ story is getting old.

2007-12-05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.7%
Prior -8.8%
Revised n/a

Modest improvement- doesn’t look like a recession has started.

2007-12-05 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Nov)

Survey 50K
Actual 189K
Prior 106K
Revised 119K

No weakness here- prelude to Friday’s employment number.

2007-12-05 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (3QF)

Survey 5.9%
Actual 6.3%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

More real output from the same amount of labor input, further questions the deflator for Q3.

2007-12-05 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (3QF)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -2.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

As above, the q3 deflator looked suspiciously low.

This should adjust with q4 numbers.

2007-12-05 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Oct)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.3%

Boring, and not worse than Fed forecasts.

2007-12-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing

ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov)

Survey 55.0
Actual 54.1
Prior 55.8
Revised n/a

It’s been drifting lower with falling budget deficit, but exports propping up gdp.

Probably not any worse than Fed forecasts.

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