Tag Archives: MBA Mortgage Applications

2009-05-13 USER

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Karim writes:

Falling wage and salary income and rising savings rate continuing to take a toll on consumer spending.

Recent pick-up in gas prices also likely hurting discretionary spending.

  • April retail sales -0.4% and -0.5% ex-autos (expectations +0.2%)
  • March ex-autos revised from -0.9% to -1.2%
  • April, Ex-gas, -0.2%
  • April, Control group (feeds into PCE component of GDP), -0.3%
  • Need a very sharp rebound in May/June to prevent Q2 PCE from being negative due to combined March/April weakness.
  • Downside risks to Q2 GDP now as low as -5%

Import prices up 1.6%, -0.4% ex-petroleum and -0.5% from China

MBA Mortgage Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.6%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 265.70
Prior 264.30
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 4588.60
Prior 5169.30
Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 38.72
Prior 21.20
Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.6%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.2%

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Import Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey -16.8%
Actual -16.3%
Prior -14.9%
Revised -15.3%

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.3%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.1%
Prior -9.6%
Revised n/a

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Retail Sales Less Autos (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.9%
Revised -1.2%

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Business Inventories MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.1%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -1.3%
Revised -1.4%

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Business Inventories YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -3.6%
Revised n/a


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2009-05-06 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.0%
Prior -18.1%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 264.30
Prior 251.60
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 5169.30
Prior 5108.20
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 47.0%
Prior 180.7%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Apr)

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ADP Employment Change (Apr)

Survey -645K
Actual -491K
Prior -742K
Revised -708K

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ADP ALLX (Apr)


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2009-04-29 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr 24)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.1%
Prior 5.3%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Apr 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 251.60
Prior 253.00
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Apr 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 5108.20
Prior 6540.70
Revised n/a

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GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q A)

Survey -4.7%
Actual -6.1%
Prior -6.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (1Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.6%
Prior -0.8%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (1Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.5%
Prior 1.2%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (1Q)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 2.9%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (1Q)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

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Personal Consumption (1Q)

Survey 0.9%
Actual 2.2%
Prior -4.3%
Revised n/a

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FOMC Rate Decision (Apr 29)

Survey 0.25%
Actual 0.25%
Prior 0.25%
Revised n/a


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2009-04-22 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr 17)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior -11.0%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Apr 17)

Survey n/a
Actual 253.00
Prior 264.10
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Apr 17)

Survey n/a
Actual 6540.70
Prior 6071.70
Revised n/a

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House Price Index MoM (Feb)

Survey -0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 1.7%
Revised 1.0%

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House Price Index YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.3%
Prior -8.9%
Revised n/a

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House Price Index ALLX (Feb)


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2009-04-01 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 32.2%
Revised n/a

 
More evidence of the rising deficit turning the economy sideways ahead of the fiscal package kicking in this month to increase the injection of net financial assets to the non government sectors:

US mortgage applications climb, rates at fresh low

by Lynn Adler

Apr 1 (Reuters) — The Mortgage Bankers Association’s applications index, which includes both refi and purchase requests, rose by a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the week ending March 27 to 1,194.4.

The purchase applications index was little changed, rising 0.1 percent to 268.0, while the refinancing gauge gained 3.7 percent to 6,600.1.

This is up sharply from 2,722.7 as recently as early February.

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 268.00
Prior 267.80
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 6600.10
Prior 6363.20
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 180.7%
Prior 158.4%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Mar)

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ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Survey -663K
Actual -742K
Prior -697K
Revised -706K

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ADP ALLX (Mar)

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ISM Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey 36.0
Actual 36.3
Prior 35.8
Revised n/a

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ISM Prices Paid (Mar)

Survey 33.0
Actual 31.0
Prior 29.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.9%
Actual -0.9%
Prior -3.3%
Revised -3.5%

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Construction Spending YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.0%
Prior -10.1%
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior -7.7%
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.2%
Prior -6.6%
Revised n/a


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2009-03-25 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 32.2%
Prior 21.2%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Mar 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 267.80
Prior 257.10
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Mar 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 6363.20
Prior 4497.60
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders (Feb)

Survey -2.5%
Actual 3.4%
Prior -5.2%
Revised -7.3%

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -28.9%
Prior -27.9%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior -4.0%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Feb)

Survey -2.0%
Actual 3.9%
Prior -2.5%
Revised -5.9%

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Durable Goods ALLX (Feb)

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New Home Sales (Feb)

Survey 300K
Actual 337K
Prior 309K
Revised 322K

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 330.00
Prior 340.00
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey -2.9%
Actual 4.7%
Prior -10.2%
Revised -13.2%

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New Home Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -41.1%
Prior -46.1%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 200.90
Prior 206.80
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Feb)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Feb)


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2009-03-11 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 11.3%
Prior -12.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Mar 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 253.30
Prior 236.40
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Mar 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 3470.70
Prior 3063.40
Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.95
Prior 8.49
Revised n/a


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2009-03-04 USER

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It all still looks very, very weak. But so low that even small improvements will show high % gains.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -12.6%
Prior -15.1%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Feb 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 236.40
Prior 250.50
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Feb 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3063.40
Prior 3618.00
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 158.49%
Prior 222.40%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Feb)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Feb)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Feb)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Feb)

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ADP Employment Change (Feb)

Survey -630K
Actual -697K
Prior -522K
Revised -614K

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ADP ALLX (Feb)

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 193.05
Prior 199.39
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -21.43%
Prior -21.59%
Revised n/a

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Feb)

Survey 41.0
Actual 41.6
Prior 42.9
Revised 42.9


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2009-02-18 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.00%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.90%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.40%
Prior -1.70%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.70%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 10)

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 45.7%
Prior -24.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 257.30
Prior 235.90
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 4472.90
Prior 2722.70
Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -4.2%
Revised -5.0%

 
Karim writes:

  • Import prices -1.1% m/m and -12.5% y/y; -0.8% m/m ex-petroleum; imports from China -0.7% m/m (-0.5% and -0.7% prior 2mths)

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    Import Price Index YoY (Jan)

    Survey -11.2%
    Actual -12.5%
    Prior -9.3%
    Revised -10.3%

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    Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Jan)

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    Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Jan)

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    Housing Starts (Jan)

    Survey 529K
    Actual 466K
    Prior 550K
    Revised 560K

     
    Karim writes:

    Housing starts and building permits fall to all-time lows.

    • Starts -16.8% m/m (all 4 regions down) and -56.2% y/y; 3rd consecutive double digit m/m decline

    • Permits -4.8% m/m (all 4 regions down)

    • When adding the supply of vacant homes (over 1mm) to starts, excess supply (relative to new household formation and obsolesence) still exists and in turn downward pressure on home prices

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    Building Permits (Jan)

    Survey 525K
    Actual 521K
    Prior 549K
    Revised 547K

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    Industrial Production MoM (Jan)

    Survey -1.5%
    Actual -1.8%
    Prior -2.0%
    Revised -2.4%

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    Industrial Production YoY (Jan)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -10.0%
    Prior -8.2%
    Revised n/a

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    Capacity Utilization (Jan)

    Survey 72.4%
    Actual 72.0%
    Prior 73.6%
    Revised 73.3%

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Jan)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Jan)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Jan)


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