Tag Archives: Leading Indicators

2008-06-19 US Economic Releases

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 14)

Survey 375K
Actual 381K
Prior 384K
Revised 386K

Holding in the ‘new’ range, far from recession levels, not getting worse. Not bad population adjusted, and fiscal package just now kicking in.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 7)

Survey 3135K
Actual 3060K
Prior 3139K
Revised 3136K

Spike may be over with fiscal package kicking in, too early to tell.

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Philadelphia Fed Survey (Jun)

Survey -10.0
Actual -17.1
Prior -15.6
Revised n/a

Worse than expected, still looks to be moving off the bottom, weakness and higher prices continues.

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Leading Indicators MoM (May)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Slightly positive. In line with modestly growing gdp forecasts.

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Leading Indicators YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.8%
Prior -1.8%
Revised n/a


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2008-04-17 US Economic Releases

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  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Continuing Claims
  • Leading Indicators
  • Philadelphia Fed.

2008-04-17 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 12)

Survey 375K
Actual 372K
Prior 357K
Revised 355K

Not impossible that this spike to over 400,000 might be ending, much like in 2005, this time with help from a fiscal package and and government spending moved forward from 2007 to 2008.

2008-04-17 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Apr 5)

Survey 2950K
Actual 2984K
Prior 2940K
Revised 2958K

This lags the claims a bit, and could go further, but still not looking like recession type levels

2008-04-17 Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

The future is starting to look a touch better, and the Fed uses ‘forward looking’ models.

2008-04-17 Philadelphia Fed.

Philadelphia Fed. (Apr)

Survey -15.0
Actual -24.9
Prior -17.4
Revised n/a

2008-04-17 Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

The Phili area is still in a ‘soft spot’ with only prices paid showing real strength.

Twin themes remain from Q2 06: weakness and higher prices.

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2008-03-20 US Economic Releases

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2008-03-20 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 15)

Survey 360K
Actual 378K
Prior 353K
Revised 356K

This has been trending higher but still not at recession levels.

(This series is not population adjusted so an upward drift over time is neutral.)

The American Axle strike also had some impact that will be reversed.

2008-03-0 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Mar 8)

Survey 2840K
Actual 2865K
Prior 2835K
Revised 2833K

This series is also not at recession levels but is a lagging indicator.

It shows the job situation has been weakening since Q3.

This is what export economies tend to look like – labor markets always have a bit of slack, and domestic consumption is relatively low as the population works, gets paid, and can’t afford to consume its own output domestically, with the balance getting exported.

And GDP muddles through.

2008-03-20 Philadelphia Fed.

Philadelphia Fed. (Mar)

Survey -19.0
Actual -17.4
Prior -24.0
Revised n/a

2008-03-20 Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

Better than forecast, some improvement, but still negative numbers.

For another rate cut, numbers have to come in worse than forecast.

Prices show continuing upward pressures. Fed needs these to level off.

Karim Basta:

  • Headline stays very weak at -17.4 (from -24)
  • Prices paid rises from 46.6 to 54.4 but Prices received drops from 24.3 to 21.2 (margin squeeze)
  • Employment drops from +2.5 to -4.7; emerging consensus of -50k drop in March payrolls
  • Workweek drops from -3.9 to -10
  • Special survey question on Q2 growth expectations: 0%

2008-03-20 Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators (Feb)

Survey -0.3%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -0.1%
Revised -0.4%

As expected, continuing weakness.

Stock market still the most reliable leading indicator.

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2008-02-21 US Economic Releases

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2008-02-21 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 16)

Survey 349K
Actual 349K
Prior 348K
Revised 358K

Down a bit but lost a day in California. Chart looks like it’s drifted to a bit higher levels.

Still not recession type numbers yet, however.

2008-02-21 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Feb 9)

Survey 2760K
Actual 2784
Prior 2761K
Revised 2736

Also looking like it’s moved up to higher levels, but still far from typical recession levels.

2008-02-21 Philadelphia Fed.

Philadelphia Fed. (Feb)

Survey -10.0
Actual -24.0
Prior -20.9
Revised n/a

Looks serious!  Strange that employment was up 2.5, however, and, of course, prices on the rise.

2008-02-21 Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators (Jan)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.1%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.1%

Still drifting lower, but no collapse.

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2008-01-18 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-18 Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators (Dec)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

Down some, but not terrible.

2008-01-18 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (Jan P)

Survey 74.5
Actual 80.5
Prior 75.5
Revised n/a

Up, but not great – not yet the stuff of recession.

2008-01-18 U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE

U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE

Note how high the current levels are – no recession there.

It’s expectations that are weak – the CNBC effect.

And inflation expectations remain higher than the fed’s comfort level.

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