2008-06-17 US Economic Releases

Posted on June 17, 2008 @ 12:09 pm (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Current Account Balance (Released 8:30 EST)
Producer Price Index MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
Producer Price Index YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
Housing Starts (Released 8:30 EST)
Housing Starts ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)
Building Permits (Released 8:30 EST)
Industrial Production MoM (Released 9:15 EST)
Industrial Production YoY (Released 9:15 EST)
Capacity Utilization (Released 9:15 EST)
ABC Consumer Confidence (Released 17:00 EST)

Current Account Balance (1Q)

Survey	-$172.5B
Actual	-$176.4B
Prior	-$172.9B
Revised	-$167.2B

A bit higher than expected, but still seems to be working its way lower over time even with petro costs rising.

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Producer Price Index MoM (May)

Survey	1.0%
Actual	1.4%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	n/a

Continues to grind higher.

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PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (May)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Less of an increase than last month but still working its way higher.

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Producer Price Index YoY (May)

Survey	6.8%
Actual	7.2%
Prior	6.5%
Revised	n/a

More than troubling for the Fed.

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PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (May)

Survey	3.0%
Actual	3.0%
Prior	3.0%
Revised	n/a

Also problematic for the Fed.

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Housing Starts (May)

Survey	980K
Actual	975K
Prior	1032K
Revised	1008K

A bit weaker than expected and last month revised down some, but seems to have largely leveled off as it fights the seasonal adjustments.

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Housing Starts ALLX (May)

Building Permits (May)

Survey	960K
Actual	969K
Prior	978K
Revised	982K

Also could be leveling off and maybe perking up a bit.

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Industrial Production MoM (May)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	-0.2%
Prior	-0.7%
Revised	n/a

Looking weak and looks to be working its way lower.

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Industrial Production YoY (May)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-0.1%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	n/a

Definately on the very weak side, but still above recession levels

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Capacity Utilization (May)

Survey	79.7%
Actual	79.4%
Prior	79.7%
Revised	79.6%

A bit weaker than expected, looking soft, but well above recession levels.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 15)

Survey	-45
Actual	-44
Prior	-45
Revised	n/a

[comments]

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2008-05-15 US Economic Releases

Posted on May 15, 2008 @ 8:40 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

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Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
Continuing Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
Empire Manufacturing (Released 8:30 EST)
Net Long-term TIC Flows (Released 9:00 EST)
Total Net TIC Flows (Released 9:00 EST)
Industrial Production (Released 9:00 EST)
Capacity Utilization (Released 9:15 EST)
Philadelphia Fed. (Released 10:00 EST)
NAHB Housing Market Index (Released 13:00 EST)

Initial Jobless Claims (May 10)

Survey	370K
Actual	371K
Prior	365K
Revised	n/a

Looks like it’s past the peak.

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Continuing Claims (May 3)

Survey	3035K
Actual	3060K
Prior	3020K
Revised	3032K

Looks like it’s not past the peak.

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Empire Manufacturing (May)

Survey	0.0
Actual	-3.2
Prior	0.6
Revised	n/a

Still off the bottom, needs another month to see where it’s going.

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Net Long-term TIC Flows (Mar)

Survey	$62.5B
Actual	$80.4B
Prior	$72.5B
Revised	$64.9B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Mar)

Survey	$67.5B
Actual	-$48.2B
Prior	$64.1B
Revised	$48.9B

In general I expect these types of numbers to follow the trade gap down.

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Industrial Production (Apr)

Survey	-0.3%
Actual	-0.7%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	0.2%

Still weak. Been weak for 50 years.

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Capacity Utilization (Apr)

Survey	80.1%
Actual	79.7%
Prior	80.5%
Revised	80.4%

Weak, but not recession levels yet.

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Philadelphia Fed. (May)

Survey	-19.0
Actual	-15.6
Prior	-24.9
Revised	n/a

Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

Perking up from low levels,
prices high and moving higher

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NAHB Housing Market Index (May)

Survey	20
Actual	19
Prior	20
Revised	n/a

Still off the lows and looking like a bottom to me.

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2008-04-16 US Economic Releases

Posted on April 16, 2008 @ 10:35 am (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

MBA Mortgage Applications
Bloomberg Global Confidence
Consumer Price Index
Housing Starts
Building Permits
Industrial Production
Capacity Utilization

MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 11)

Survey	n/a
Actual	381.6
Prior	384.7
Revised	n/a

Holding in its new, lower range.

MBAVREFI Index (Apr 11)

Survey	n/a
Actual	2866.0
Prior	2724.7
Revised	n/a

Doing ok in this prime time for resets, which are peaking and then falling off.

Bloomberg Global Confidence (Apr)

Survey	n/a
Actual	14.54
Prior	13.08
Revised	n/a

Still down, but signs of a bottom.

In my humble opinion, inflation is ripping, and the Fed’s in a very bad place. April’s food and energy price hikes, along with hosts of others, and the weaker USD all are pointing to an upward surge for prices on a forward looking basis.The Fed’s forecasting models should be showing higher inflation as well.And futures markets continue to be an unreliable forecasting tool for the Fed.

Consumer Price Index MoM (Mar)

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.3%
Prior	0.0%
Revised	n/a

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.0%
Revised	n/a

Consumer Price Index YoY (Mar)

Survey	4.0%
Actual	4.0%
Prior	4.0%
Revised	n/a

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)

Survey	2.4%
Actual	2.4%
Prior	2.3%
Revised	n/a

From Karim:

Headline/Core divergence->limited passthrough

Headline 0.343% and stays at 4% y/y

Core rises 0.152% (after 0.04% last month), showing limited pass-through from headline and even more limited pass-through from wholesale level (PPI from yday).

Core rises from 2.3% to 2.4%, equates to about 1.9-2.0% on core PCE basis due to measurement differences

Food up 0.2% and gas up 1.3%

OER up 0.2%, apparel down 1.3%, vehicles down 0.1%

Lodging away from home down 0.6% and medical up only 0.1%, a bit below trend

Housing starts not looking good. The glimmer of hope is that prior months have been revised up for the last two reports, so there’s a chance this number could be revised substantially as well.

Housing Starts (Mar)

Survey	1010K
Actual	947K
Prior	1065K
Revised	1075K

Building Permits (Mar)

Survey	970K
Actual	927K
Prior	978K
Revised	984K

From Karim:

Housing data shows drag continuing with at least the same intensity

Starts down 11.9%, boding poorly for current GDP

Permits down 5.8%, boding poorly for future GDP

Best news is not adding to inventories

Industrial Production (Mar)

Survey	-0.1%
Actual	0.3%
Prior	-0.5%
Revised	-0.7%

May be due to exports, which are keeping GDP and employment muddling through

Capacity Utilization (Mar)

Survey	80.3%
Actual	80.5%
Prior	80.9%
Revised	80.3%

Staying too high for the typical recession.

2008-03-17 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 17, 2008 @ 9:24 am (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)

Survey	20
Actual	20
Prior	20
Revised	n/a

Still looking like housing may have bottomed October/November, as previously discussed.

Current Account Balance (4Q)

Survey	-$183.8B
Actual	-$172.9B
Prior	-$178.5B
Revised	-$177.4B

The dollar flight picks up steam.

Empire Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey	-7.4
Actual	-22.2
Prior	-11.7
Revised	n/a

Empire Manufacturing TABLE

The chart looks far worse than the table, which actually looks somewhat constructive.

And prices up (surprise!).

Industrial Production (Feb)

Survey	-0.1%
Actual	-0.5%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	0.1%

Q1 looking weak as advertised.

Capacity Utilization (Feb)

Survey	81.2%
Actual	80.9%
Prior	81.5%
Revised	n/a

Some slack forming but not much.

2008-02-15 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 15, 2008 @ 2:37 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Empire Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey	6.5
Actual	-11.7
Prior	9.0
Revised	n/a

Down, but it has been lower, not yet to previous recession levels.

Industrial Production (Jan)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.1%
Prior	0.0%
Revised	0.1%

Modestly positive, and not at recession levels.

Capacity Utilization (Jan)

Survey	81.3%
Actual	81.5%
Prior	81.4%
Revised	81.5%

Holding up reasonably well.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Feb P)

Survey	76.0
Actual	69.6
Prior	78.4
Revised	n/a

The CNBC effect keeping expectations down.

One year inflation expectations jumped to 3.7% putting the Fed on high alert.

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2008-01-16 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 16, 2008 @ 4:08 pm (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Average Mortgage Purchasing Index (Jan 11)

Survey	n/a
Actual	461.20
Prior	414.00
Revised	n/a

Mortgage Refi’s (Jan 11)

Survey	n/a
Actual	3575.50
Prior	2494.20
Revised	n/a

Purchase index back on uptrend, refi way up. Lower rates and return of market functioning coming together nicely.

Still looks like housing could have bottomed October/November, but jury is still out pending data and revisions.

JP Morgan mtg revenue spiked up as JPM gains market share in mtg markets.

Houses are cheaper, lenders aggressive with real buyers, and income has continued higher.

See Mortgage applications soar.

Consumer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.3%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	n/a

Consumer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey	4.1%
Actual	4.1%
Prior	4.3%
Revised	n/a

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey	2.4%
Actual	2.4%
Prior	2.3%
Revised	n/a

See Food/fuel/$ bakes in core.

Industrial Production (Dec)

Survey	-0.2%
Actual	0.0%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	n/a

Graph looks OK – holding its own!

Capacity Utilization (Dec)

Survey	81.2%
Actual	81.4%
Prior	81.5%
Revised	81.6%

Drifting off some, but still at a relatively high level.

NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan)

Survey	19
Actual	19
Prior	19
Revised	18

Rounding bottom?

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