The Mosler Plan for Greece

The Mosler Plan, as previously posted on this website, is now making the rounds in Europe as an alternative to the French Plan that is currently under serious consideration:

Abstract
The following is an outline for a proposed new Greek government bond issue to provide all required medium term euro funding for Greece on very attractive terms.

The new bond issue includes an addition to the default provisions that eliminates the risk of loss to investors. The language added to the default provisions states that while in default, and only in the case of default, these transferable securities can be used directly, by the bearer on demand, at face value plus accrued interest, for payment of any debts, including taxes, owed to the Greek government.

By eliminating the risk of loss, Greece will be able to independently fund all required financial obligations in the market place for the foreseeable future. The immediate benefits are both reduced interest costs that substantially contribute to deficit reduction, and the elimination of the need for the funding assistance from the European Union and the IMF.

Introduction- Restoring National Sovereignty
Current institutional arrangements have resulted in Greece being faced with escalating interest costs when it attempts to fund itself in the market place, to the point where timely funding is not currently available without external assistance. This requirement for external assistance to avoid default has further resulted in a loss of sovereignty, with the EU and IMF offering funding only on their approval of deficit reduction plans by the Greek government that meet specific requirements. Compliance with these demands from the EU and IMF not only include tax increases, spending cuts, and privatizations, but also include aggressive time lines for achieving their deficit reduction goals. It is also understood by all parties that the immediate near term consequences of these imposed austerity measures will include further slowing of the economy, and rising unemployment.

Greece will restore national sovereignty, and regain control of the process of full compliance with the general EU requirements for all member nations, only when it restores its financial independence. Financial independence will allow Greece to again be master of its own destiny, on an equal basis with the other EU members. And the lower interest rate that result(s) from this proposed bond issue will itself be a substantial down payment on the required deficit reduction, easing the requirements for tax increases, spending cuts, and privatizations.

While this proposal restores Greek national sovereignty, and eases funding burdens, we recognize that it is only the first step in restoring the Greek economy. Even with funding independence and low interest rates the Greek government still faces a monumental task in bringing Greece into full compliance with EU requirements and restoring economic output and employment. However, it should also be recognized that financial independence and low cost funding are the critical first steps to long term success.

The Bond Issue- No Risk of Financial Loss
Market based funding at the lowest possible interest rates requires investors who understand there is no ultimate risk of financial loss, and that the promise to pay principal and interest by the issuer is credible. To be credible, a borrower must have the means to meet all contractual euro obligations on a timely basis. For Greece this has meant investors must have the confidence that Greece can generate sufficient revenues through taxing and borrowing to repay its debts.

The credit worthiness of any loan begins with the default provisions. While there may be unconditional promises to pay, investors nonetheless value what their rights are in the event the borrower does not pay. Corporate debt often includes rights to specific collateral, priorities in specific revenues, and other credit enhancing support.

The new proposed Greek bond issue, with its provision that in the event of default the bonds can be used at face value, plus interest, for the payment of taxes by the bearer on demand, gives the bond holder absolute assurance that full maturity value in euro can always be achieved. And with this absolute assurance that these new securities are necessarily ‘money good’ the ability to refinance is established which dramatically reduces the risk of the default provisions actually being triggered. And, again, should there be a default event, the investor will still get full value for his investment as the entire euro value of the defaulted securities can be used at any time for the payment of Greek taxes. So while this discussion concerns the case of default, the removal of the risk of loss means there will always be demand for them at near risk free market interest rates, and that the default discussion is, for all practical purposes, hypothetical.

These new Greek government bonds will be of particular interest to banks, which, again, encourages bank ownership, which makes default that much more remote a possibility. This is because, in the case of default, a bank holding any of these defaulted securities will be able to use them for payment of taxes on behalf of bank clients (using that bank for payment of their taxes). Under these circumstances, a bank depositor client making payment of euro would, in effect, simultaneously buy the defaulted securities from the bank and use them to pay the Greek government taxes due. Again, the fact that the bank would be fully paid for its defaulted securities in the process of depositors paying their taxes means there will be no default in the first place, as these favorable consequences mean there will be continuous demand for new securities of this type at competitive market interest rates, to facilitate all Greek refinancing requirements.

The new ‘money good’ Greek bonds will be attractive to all global investors, both private and public. This will include international banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and other private investors, as well as sovereign wealth funds and foreign central banks which are accumulating euro reserves.

Fiscal Responsibility
As a member in good standing of the European Union, Greece, like all the member nations, is required to be in full compliance of all EU requirements. Therefore, while this proposal will restore national sovereignty, financial independence, and lower interest rates for Greece, austerity measures will continue to be required to bring Greece into EU compliance. However, Greece will gain substantial flexibility with regard to timing and other specific detail, and will be able to work to achieve its goals in an organized, orderly manner, without the continued pressures of default risk and without the specific terms and conditions currently being demanded by the EU and the IMF. Nor will the ECB be required to buy Greek bonds in the market place, obviating those demands as well.

Greek Banks Plead for More Aid in Debt Crisis

It’s all falling into place with the austerity measures taking their toll on the financial equity that supports the credit structure in a euro wide banking system that does not have credible deposit insurance.

Greek banks plead for more aid in debt crisis

By George Georgiopoulos and Harry Papachristou

Apr. 7 (Reuters) — Greek banks, hit by a series of credit rating downgrades linked to the country’s debt crisis, have asked the government for more financial support, Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said on Wednesday.

“The banks have asked to use the remaining funds of the support plan,” he told reporters, referring to a package first agreed by the previous conservative government in 2008.

About 17 billion euros ($22.72 billion), mainly in state guarantees, remain in the 28 billion euro support scheme, launched to help Greek lenders cope with the global credit crisis.

The Central Bank of Greece said non-performing loans in the banking system rose further in the last quarter of 2009, bringing the full-year ratio to 7.7 percent.

The banks’ plea for extra help highlighted the problems facing the entire Greek economy, which is expected to contract by at least 2 percent this year, partly as a result of austerity measures imposed to slash a huge budget deficit.

IMF officials began talks in Athens on Wednesday on implementing the austerity plan, just as the latest market jitters over Greece’s ability to manage its debt mountain eased slightly, despite uncertainty over a euro zone rescue plan.

ECB likely to extend lending unlimited funds at fixed

At least part of the ECB has repeatedly shown they do understand monetary operations and that it’s about price and not quantity.

Subject: RTRS-ECB LIKELY TO EXTEND LENDING UNLIMITED FUNDS AT FIXED

RTRS-ECB LIKELY TO EXTEND LENDING UNLIMITED FUNDS AT FIXED
RATES INTO START OF Q3 AT MARCH MEETING-EURO ZONE MONETARY
SOURCES
RTRS-SOME AT ECB CONCERNED ABOUT KEEPING LONGER-TERM OPS AT
FIXED RATES FOR TOO LONG- EURO ZONE C.BANK SOURCES
RTRS-IMPORTANT TO PROVIDE INSTRUMENTS TO COVER 12-MONTH TENDER
MATURING ON JULY 1

on the back of above headlines
-curve steepening back, 2bps move
-front end bid
-pers better bid (Greece 5bps move)

EU Says There Is No Plan to Bail Out Greece

The markets are likely to force some entity to write a check:

EU Headlines:

EU Says There Is No Plan to Bail Out Greece

Provopoulos Confident Greece Will Meet ‘Very Ambitious’ Goals

Euro Worst to Come as Greece Hammerlocks ECB on Rates

German Recovery ‘Prone to Setbacks,’ Finance Ministry Says

French Lawmaker Warns Sarkozy Against Hasty Support for Greece

Five Percent of German Taxpayers Generate 42% of Income Tax

Debt Deals Haunt Europe

Greece Said to Have Arranged Swaps With 15 Banks

Greece looks at tougher budget cuts

Greek PM rules out bailout but urges EU solidarity

EU Says There Is No Plan to Bail Out Greece

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) — The European Union said there is no plan to bail out Greece.

“There is no such a plan,” EU spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told reporters in Brussels today. “This is a speculative scenario at this point in time.”

“I was reading the papers when I also realized that in fact that there is no such a plan,” Altafaj said. “I think that the extraordinary summit and the Ecofin said all that had to be said on this and there has never been such a request from the Greek authorities and that remains the case.”

Goldman Sachs trying to broker Greek bonds to China


[Skip to the end]

I went to high school with Chris Powell where he was a good friend of mine, then lost touch.
We’ve had a few emails discussing GATA. Seems their beef is that the Fed is conspiring to keep the price of gold down, which wrongly hurts the GATA supporters.
Didn’t make a lot of sense to me, but whatever.

Regarding China and the euro-

Note China already owns some Greek bonds, highlighted below?

I was discussing this a while back when China was ‘diversifying reserves’ in that one of the problems with the buying the euro is you have to take national govt credit risk, as there is nothing equivalent to the ‘federal’ securities of the other nations of the world with non convertible currencies where the issuer of the currency is your counter party.

Also, when the likes of China stops buying, say, the $US or the yen, it’s not a credit event for the US like it is when they stop buying the euro, where the national govt’s solvency is a function of their ability to sell their securities.

So the lack of euro buying by sovereigns who were willing to take national govt credit risk puts the entire eurozone at risk of a liquidity crisis beginning with its ‘weakest link.’ Hence the Greek ‘road trips’ to China, which do make sense, in contrast to the Obama/Clinton/Geithner road trips to China which reinforce the notion that they don’t understand the monetary system.

I’ve also passed along the idea that if Greek bonds were to have default provisions that allowed them to be used to pay Greek taxes in the event of default it should lower their interest rates. Don’t know if that got anywhere- no way for me to check.

Goldman Sachs trying to broker Greek bonds to China

Athens Invites Beijing to Buy Bonds

By Kerin Hope and Jamil Anderlini

Link

Greece is wooing China to buy up to E25 billion of government bonds, a move that underlines Beijing’s growing financial power, as Athens struggles to fund soaring public debt.

Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank, has been promoting a Greek bond sale to Beijing and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which manages China’s $2,400 billion foreign exchange reserves, said people familiar with the issue.

Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs chief operating officer, has made two trips to Athens — last November and this month — to meet George Papandreou, prime minister, and senior officials.

Beijing has not agreed to such a purchase. Meanwhile, Athens has rejected a suggestion that a Chinese bank should acquire a strategic stake in National Bank of Greece, the country’s flagship commercial lender, according to officials contacted by the Financial Times.

But a more modest deal of about E5 billion-E10 billion ($7 billion-$14 billion) appeared possible after Mr Cohn’s second trip to Athens, officials said on Tuesday.

George Papaconstantinou, finance minister, told the FT he would visit China on a road show next month, but “no target is set” for a debt placement.

China’s foreign exchange reserves grew $130 billion in the last quarter of 2009 alone. But people close to Safe said China already held a “significant amount” of Greek debt and was wary of adding to that.

A senior Greek finance ministry official said Athens would welcome Chinese buyers of its bonds. The official declined to specify an amount, though a figure of E20 billion-E25 billion was raised in talks with Goldman Sachs.

A E5 billion syndicated loan issue by Greece this week attracted bids worth more than E20 billion, but Greece continues to face pressure in financial markets.

Goldman Sachs mooted the sale of equity in NBG to Bank of China, the country’s third-largest commercial lender by assets, and made a similar proposal to China Investment Corp., China’s sovereign wealth fund, according to officials.

Chinese officials said CIC was not interested and that regulators would not let BoC make such a risky investment. Goldman Sachs and CIC declined to comment. A Bank of China spokesman said: “I haven’t heard anything about it.”


[top]