2008-05-29 US Economic Releases

Posted on May 29, 2008 @ 5:59 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

GDP QoQ Annualized (Released 9:30 EST)
Personal Consumption (Released 9:30 EST)
GDP Price Index (Released 9:30 EST)
Core PCE QoQ (Released 9:30 EST)
Initial Jobless Claims (Released 9:30 EST)
Continuing Claims (Released 9:30 EST)
Help Wanted Index (Released 11:00 EST)

GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q P)

Survey	0.9%
Actual	0.9%
Prior	1.5%
Revised	1.7%

Staying clear of recession levels.
Looking like Q4 was the bottom of this move.

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Personal Consumption (1Q P)

Survey	1.0%
Actual	1.0%
Prior	1.0%
Revised	n/a

As expected,Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â not collapsing as feared, yet.

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GDP Price Index (1Q P)

Survey	2.6%
Actual	2.6%
Prior	2.6%
Revised	n/a

Not good, and pipeline pressures continuing to build.

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Core PCE QoQ (1Q P)

Survey	2.2%
Actual	2.1%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	n/a

A little better than expected.

But trend looking up.

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Initial Jobless Claims (May 24)

Survey	370K
Actual	372K
Prior	365K
Revised	368K

Seems to be leveling off.

Fiscal package should help.

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Continuing Claims (May 17)

Survey	3060K
Actual	3104K
Prior	3073K
Revised	3068K

Lagging indicator, still trending higher, but still far below recession levels.

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Help Wanted Index (Apr)

Survey	19
Actual	19
Prior	19
Revised	n/a

Indicator of soft jobs markets.

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2008-03-27 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 27, 2008 @ 9:22 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

GDP Annualized (4Q F)

Survey	0.6%
Actual	0.6%
Prior	0.6%
Revised	n/a

Personal Consumption (4Q F)

Survey	1.9%
Actual	2.3%
Prior	1.9%
Revised	n/a

Revised up to a very respectable number. And income remains positive, and employment is at high levels.

GDP Price Index (4Q F)

Survey	2.7%
Actual	2.4%
Prior	2.7%
Revised	n/a

A bit better than previously reported, but prices have subsequently gone much higher.

Core PCE QoQ (4Q F)

Survey	2.7%
Actual	2.5%
Prior	2.7%
Revised	n/a

The Fed is more concerned about this and the evidence food and energy is getting passed through from headline to core measures.

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 22)

Survey	370K
Actual	366K
Prior	378K
Revised	375K

Continuing Claims (Mar 15)

Survey	2885K
Actual	2845K
Prior	2865K
Revised	2850K

Best guess:

The jobless recovery that morphed into the full employment recession now appears to be over with todayÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s jobless claims numbers leaning in the same direction as other data released earlier this week.

That does not mean the issues with the financial sector are all behind us – far from it.

It does mean the real economy has figured out how to move on with whatÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s left of the financial sector.

Help Wanted Index (Feb)

Survey	20
Actual	21
Prior	21
Revised	22

[comments]

Claims, ECI

Posted on January 31, 2008 @ 10:12 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

From Karim:

True to the past 5yrs pattern, claims seem to be reverting to trend after the first few weeks of January.

Right, good call!

IJC climbed from 306k to 375k; the trend before the January drop was around 340-350k; this number was for MLK holiday week, so an adjustment issue here as well; bottom line is I think trend is still around 350k.
Continuing claims rose from 2685k to 2716k.
ECI (both headline and wage component) up 0.8% q/q

Data below is for Dec, so was largely known in ydayÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s GDP number.

Personal income up 0.5%, with wage and salary component up 0.4%
Core PCE up 0.2% m/m (2.2% y/y)

Most meaningful data here was continuing claims (little to no hiring taking place) and ECI (wage gwth still tame).

And Fed still looking at this as an indication of ‘inflation expectations’.

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2008-01-30 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 30, 2008 @ 9:05 am (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

MBAVPRCH Index + 4 Wk Ave + 12 Wk Ave

From Karim:
very volatile series-see chart-white line is purchase index-purple line is 4wk avg and green line is 12wk avg-latter is probably best indicator of trend and looks like still heading lower. Of course this series also reflects multiple applications for same home purchase, which is more likely over the past few months in light of tighter standards for many borrowers, so probably have to adjust for that compared to same series a year ago.

MBA Refinancing Index (Jane 25)

Survey	n/a
Actual	5103.6
Prior	4178.2
Revised	n/a

Refi index positive for ‘market functioning’, but purchase index could be softening.

As before, winter housing numbers are volatile.

ADP Employment Change (Jan)

Survey	40K
Actual	130K
Prior	40K
Revised	37K

Not the stuff of recession. While not a reliable predictor of Friday’s payroll report, it is a ‘real’ number as it’s ADP’s report of 392,000 business it services.

GDP Annualized (4Q A)

Survey	1.2%
Actual	0.6%
Prior	4.9%
Revised	n/a

Lower than expected but still positive, consumer up 2% which is far from recession, and final sales for domestic purchases were up 1.4%, and the Dec export number won’t be reported until Feb 14. The durable goods number yesterday may portend a higher than estimated export number for the next Q4 GDP revised report. Inventories were burned off by 1.25% of GDP, which is also generally not indicative of recession.

Personal Consumption (4Q A)

Survey	2.6%
Actual	2.0%
Prior	2.8%
Revised	n/a

Down but not terrible, and not the stuff of recession

GDP Price Index (4Q A)

Survey	2.6%
Actual	2.6%
Prior	1.0%
Revised	n/a

Not good.

Core PCE QoQ (4Q A)

Survey	2.5%
Actual	2.7%
Prior	2.0%
Revised	n/a

Very troubling to the Fed. Mainstream theory says you can’t let core elevate. The cost to bring it down is much higher than any possible losses due to near term weakness caused by keeping rates high.

FOMC Rate Decision (Jan 30)

Survey	3.0%
Actual	3.0%
Prior	3.5%
Revised	n/a

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2007-12-20 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 20, 2007 @ 3:04 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

GDP Annualized (3QF)

Survey	4.9%
Actual	4.9%
Prior	4.9%
Revised	n/a

Personal Consumption (3QF)

Survey	42.8.9%
Actual	2.8%
Prior	2.7%
Revised	n/a

GDP Price Index (3QF)

Survey	0.9%
Actual	1.0%
Prior	0.9%
Revised	n/a

Above numbers as expected.

Core PCE QoQ (3QF)

Survey	1.8%
Actual	2.0%
Prior	1.8%
Revised	n/a

This is now at the upper bound of the fed’s comfort zone.

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 15)

Survey	335K
Actual	346K
Prior	333K
Revised	334K

Creeping up.

Fed gets concerned if it gets over 375K.

Continuing Claims (Dec 8)

Survey	2610K
Actual	264K
Prior	2639K
Revised	2634K

Creeping up as well, but not yet a major concern.

Leading Indicators (Nov)

Survey	-0.3%
Actual	-0.5%
Prior	-0.5%
Revised	n/a

Pretty much in line with expectations.

Philadelphia Fed. (Dec)

Survey	6.0%
Actual	-5.7%
Prior	8.2%
Revised	n/a

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2007-11-29 US Economic Releases

Posted on November 30, 2007 @ 3:29 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

GCP Annualized (3QP)

Survey	4.8%
Actual	4.9%
Prior	3.9%
Revised	n/a

Keeps coming in above expectations.

Personal Consumption (3QP)

Survey	2.9%
Actual	2.7%
Prior	3.0%
Revised	n/a

A touch higher bust still seems very low.

GDP Price Index (3QP)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.9%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

A touch higher bust still seems very low.

Core PCE QoQ (3QP)

Survey	1.8%
Actual	1.8%
Prior	1.8%
Revised	n/a

Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 24)

Survey	330K
Actual	352K
Prior	330K
Revised	329K

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

Continuing Claims (Nov 17)

Survey	2575K
Actual	2665K
Prior	2566K
Revised	2553K

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey	750K
Actual	728K
Prior	770K
Revised	716K

Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.

New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey	-2.6%
Actual	1.7%
Prior	4.8%
Revised	-0.1%

Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.

Help Wanted Index (Oct)

Survey	23
Actual	23
Prior	24
Revised	n/a

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

House Price Index QoQ (3Q)

Survey	-0.5%
Actual	-0.4%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	n/a

Moving lower.
Do you think any of this is below fed expectations as of October 31st?

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