Consumer Credit
Moving up some, supporting spending at muddle through ‘better than recession’ levels, but not a bubble yet, as happened at the turn of the century.
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Tag Archives: Consumer Credit
2008-06-06 Economic Releases
- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Released 8:30 EST)
- Unemployment Rate (Released 8:30 EST)
- Unemployment Rate ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)
- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Released 8:30 EST)
- Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
- Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- Average Weekly Hours (Released 8:30 EST)
- Wholesale Inventories MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
- Wholesale Inventories YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
- Consumer Credit (Released 15:00 EST)
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
| Survey | -60K |
| Actual | -49K |
| Prior | -20K |
| Revised | -28K |
Down 49,000 was better than expected.
Previous months revised down an additional total of 15,000.
Unemployment Rate (May)
| Survey | 5.1% |
| Actual | 5.5% |
| Prior | 5.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
Unemployment Rate ALLX
Total employment is over 138 million, and the seasonal adjustment dropped the actual number by over 1.5 million jobs.
So this report is fighting strong seasonal adjustments.
5.5% unemployment from the household survey is a lot worse than expected.
Seems 500,000 new job seekers entered the labor force in that survey, apparently a statistical quirk added that many teenagers and 20-24 year olds out of sync with seasonal adjustments.
Even so, the labor markets remain on the weak side.
But they are strong enough to support crude at $131.72 (as Saudi oil production continues to grow at even these higher prices and headline inflation) is well north of 4%, as the May CPI is expected to show.
Employment is also strong enough to yield positive GDP growth – no recession yet.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (May)
| Survey | -40K |
| Actual | -26K |
| Prior | -46K |
| Revised | -49 |
Better than expected, in line with other recent report.
Average Hourly Earnings MoM (May)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | 0.3% |
| Prior | 0.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
A touch higher than expected, but not that bad.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (May)
| Survey | 3.4% |
| Actual | 3.5% |
| Prior | 3.4% |
| Revised | 3.5% |
Also a bit higher than expected, but still not moving higher.
‘Wage inflation’ is not the issue, nor is it necessary condition for problematic inflation, especially in an export economy.
Average Weekly Hours (May)
| Survey | 33.7 |
| Actual | 33.7 |
| Prior | 33.7 |
| Revised | n/a |
Holding steady.
Wholesale Inventories MoM (April)
| Survey | 0.4% |
| Actual | 1.3% |
| Prior | -0.1% |
| Revised | 0.1% |
Higher than expected, but not at recession levels yet.
Wholesale Inventories YoY (April)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 8.1% |
| Prior | 7.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
Higher than expected, but still not all that high.
Consumer Credit (April)
| Survey | $7.2B |
| Actual | $8.9B |
| Prior | $15.3B |
| Revised | $13.1B |
This month a bit better than expected, last month revised down a bit. Consumer credit seems to be chugging along at better than recession levels.
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2008-05-07 US Economic Releases
- MBAVPRCH Index (Released 7:00 EST)
- MBAVREFI Index (Released 7:00 EST)
- Nonfarm Productivity Released 8:30 EST)
- Unit Labor Costs (Released 8:30 EST)
- Pending Home Sales MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
- Consumer Credit (Released 15:00 EST)
MBAVPRCH Index (May 2)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 381.3 |
| Prior | 340.1 |
| Revised | n/a |
Seems to have at least stabilized.
MBAVREFI Index (May 2)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 2773.8 |
| Prior | 1905.2 |
| Revised | n/a |
Doing okay.
Nonfarm Productivity (1Q P)
| Survey | 1.5% |
| Actual | 2.2% |
| Prior | 1.9% |
| Revised | 1.8% |
Better than expected. Usually rises with output.
Unit Labor Costs (1Q P)
| Survey | 2.6% |
| Actual | 2.2% |
| Prior | 2.6% |
| Revised | 2.8% |
Better then expected, prior revised up. This series isn’t doing much.
Look to imports from China for a handle on unit labor costs as well.
Pending Home Sales MoM (Mar)
| Survey | -1.0% |
| Actual | -1.0% |
| Prior | -1.9% |
| Revised | -2.8% |
Still falling some, seasonally adjusted, and with actual inventory going down there is less to buy.
Consumer Credit (Mar)
| Survey | $6.0B |
| Actual | $15.3B |
| Prior | $5.2B |
| Revised | $6.5B |
Volatile series.
Seems to be holding up as incomes hold up.
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2008-04-07 US Economic Releases
Consumer Credit (Feb)
| Survey | $5.9B |
| Actual | $5.2B |
| Prior | $6.9B |
| Revised | $10.3B |
Consumer Credit TABLE
Decent fall off in consumer credit in line with reduced consumer spending.
2008-03-07 US Economic Releases
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls since 1980
| Survey | 23K |
| Actual | -63K |
| Prior | -17K |
| Revised | -22K |
Unemployment Rate (Feb)
| Survey | 5.0% |
| Actual | 4.8% |
| Prior | 4.9% |
| Revised | n/a |
The longer term chart is definitely looking lower/weaker, but not yet at recession levels, and is not ‘population adjusted.’
This give the Fed no comfort regarding inflation concerns.
The output gap is may already too low to bring inflation down, and their forecasts are for a (modest) pickup in growth when the fiscal package kicks in beginning early May.
In their models, it’s the forecast of rising unemployment that is responsible for the slack that brings inflation back into comfort zones.
Today’s 4.8% unemployment number is a step in the wrong direction for that to happen.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Feb)
| Survey | -25K |
| Actual | -52K |
| Prior | -28K |
| Revised | -31K |
Manufacturing employment falls indefinitely in a modern economy.
Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Feb)
| Survey | 0.3% |
| Actual | 0.3% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.3% |
The Fed wants these to remain reasonably well-contained.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Feb)
| Survey | 3.6% |
| Actual | 3.7% |
| Prior | 3.7% |
| Revised | n/a |
As above.
Average Weekly Hours (Feb)
| Survey | 33.7 |
| Actual | 33.7 |
| Prior | 33.7 |
| Revised | n/a |
Down a tad.
Coming soon!
Consumer Credit (Jan)
| Survey | $7.0B |
| Actual | — |
| Prior | $4.5B |
| Revised | — |
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2008-02-07 US Economic Releases
Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 2)
| Survey | 342K |
| Actual | 356K |
| Prior | 375K |
| Revised | 378K |
Moving down, but will need to fall more next week to signal employment is doing reasonably well.
Continuing Claims (Jan 26)
| Survey | 2715K |
| Actual | 2785K |
| Prior | 2716K |
| Revised | -2710K |
Back up a bit, but not through the highs, and reflects lasts weeks higher claims.
Total Pending Home Sales SA (Dec)
| Survey | -1.0% |
| Actual | -1.5% |
| Prior | -2.6% |
| Revised | -3.0% |
Down some, but not through the lows. October/November may still have been the bottom of housing.
ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Jan)
| Survey | 0.8% |
| Actual | 0.5% |
| Prior | 0.9% |
| Revised | n/a |
Been drifting lower for quite a while. Part of the expected softening of domestic demand since Q2 2006.
Consumer Credit (Dec)
| Survey | $7.4B |
| Actual | $4.5B |
| Prior | $15.4B |
| Revised | $17.1B |
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2008-01-08 US Economic Releases
Pending Home Sales Total SA
| Survey | -0.7% |
| Actual | -2.6% |
| Prior | 0.6% |
| Revised | n/a |
Down a touch but not through the lows, could still be forming a bottom.
| Economic Outlook |
Personal Financial Outlook |
Federal Economic Policies |
Overall | ||
| Jan. | 2008 | 31.4 | 55.7 | 42.7 | 43.2 |
| Dec. | 2007 | 32.1 | 58.3 | 42.7 | 44.4 |
| Nov. | 2007 | 30.8 | 53.5 | 47.1 | 43.8 |
| Oct. | 2007 | 38.5 | 58.2 | 45.1 | 47.3 |
| Sept. | 2007 | 37.9 | 59.3 | 47.3 | 48.2 |
| Aug. | 2007 | 40.3 | 59.8 | 48.5 | 49.5 |
| July | 2007 | 39.5 | 58.3 | 46.8 | 48.2 |
| June | 2007 | 41.3 | 58.9 | 47.1 | 49.1 |
| May | 2007 | 39.1 | 57.6 | 47.3 | 48 |
| April | 2007 | 34.9 | 56.2 | 45.3 | 45.5 |
| March | 2007 | 41.5 | 61.1 | 49.8 | 50.8 |
| Feb. | 2007 | 46.4 | 60.8 | 51 | 52.7 |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jan) TABLE
| Survey | 43.0 |
| Actual | 43.2 |
| Prior | 44.4 |
| Revised | n/a |
Speaks for itself…
Consumer Credit Total Net Change
| Survey | $8.0B |
| Actual | $15.4B |
| Prior | $4.7B |
| Revised | $2.0B |
Explains November spending strength and probably borrowed from December due to how the holidays fell.
ABC Consumer Confidence
| Survey | -20 |
| Actual | -20 |
| Prior | -20 |
| Revised | n/a |
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2007-12-07 US Economic Releases
On 12/7/07, Karim Basta wrote:
>
>
> NFP +94k
> Net revisions -48k, with Sep revised from 96k to 44k (lowest mthly gain
> since 2/04)But October revised up to 170,000, indicating Sep the low so far, and
> improvement since then. And the Fed surely remember Sep 11 meeting
> where the Aug employment number was reported down and later revised to
> a relatively strong up number.
> UE rate down from 4.727% to 4.658%
And the Fed is concerned a falling labor force participation rate due to demographics means labor tightening with fewer new jobs.
> Most important to me was the diffusion index dropping below 50 (more
> industries losing jobs than gaining jobs) for the first time since Sep 2003
Yes, but only just below to 49.8 from 53.
> Retail job change from -15k to +24k looks suspect and reflective of poor
> seasonal adjustment factor;likely borrowing heavily from Dec job gwth
> Index of aggregate hours up 0.1% and avg hrly earnings up 0.5% (off a low
> 0.2% last mth)
Might result in Fed upward revisions for q4 gdp?
>
> Base case for next week is -25bps on FF and -50bps on DR.
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
| Survey | 80K |
| Actual | 94K |
| Prior | 166K |
| Revised | 170K |
Better than forecasting, and jobs being added about as fast as the fed thinks possible given fed perception of current demographics – no slack evident. Sept revised down and October up to 170,000 so the chart looks fine.
Unemployment Rate (Nov)
| Survey | 4.8% |
| Actual | 4.7% |
| Prior | 4.7% |
| Revised | n/a |
Better than forecast, and still well below the fed’s ‘unspoken’ concern that anything below 5% is more than non-inflationary full employment level.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Nov)
| Survey | -15K |
| Actual | -11K |
| Prior | -21K |
| Revised | -15K |
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
| Survey | 0.3% |
| Actual | 0.5% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | 0.1% |
Above expectations, nudges up inflation risk.
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
| Survey | 3.8% |
| Actual | 3.8% |
| Prior | 3.8% |
| Revised | 3.6% |
Average Weekly Hours (Nov)
| Survey | 33.8 |
| Actual | 33.8 |
| Prior | 33.8 |
| Revised | n/a |
Total hours holding up nicely and growing some – could see Q4 GPD numbers revised up by some firms.
U. of Michigan Confidence (Dec P)
| Survey | 75.0 |
| Actual | 74.5 |
| Prior | 76.1 |
| Revised | n/a |
This is also from watching CNBC.
Consumer Credit (Oct)
| Survey | $5.0 |
| Actual | $4.7B |
| Prior | $3.7B |
| Revised | $3.2B |
Still in a reasonably narrow range.
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