2008-03-17 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 17, 2008 @ 9:24 am (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)

Survey	20
Actual	20
Prior	20
Revised	n/a

Still looking like housing may have bottomed October/November, as previously discussed.

Current Account Balance (4Q)

Survey	-$183.8B
Actual	-$172.9B
Prior	-$178.5B
Revised	-$177.4B

The dollar flight picks up steam.

Empire Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey	-7.4
Actual	-22.2
Prior	-11.7
Revised	n/a

Empire Manufacturing TABLE

The chart looks far worse than the table, which actually looks somewhat constructive.

And prices up (surprise!).

Industrial Production (Feb)

Survey	-0.1%
Actual	-0.5%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	0.1%

Q1 looking weak as advertised.

Capacity Utilization (Feb)

Survey	81.2%
Actual	80.9%
Prior	81.5%
Revised	n/a

Some slack forming but not much.

2008-02-15 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 15, 2008 @ 2:37 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Empire Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey	6.5
Actual	-11.7
Prior	9.0
Revised	n/a

Down, but it has been lower, not yet to previous recession levels.

Industrial Production (Jan)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.1%
Prior	0.0%
Revised	0.1%

Modestly positive, and not at recession levels.

Capacity Utilization (Jan)

Survey	81.3%
Actual	81.5%
Prior	81.4%
Revised	81.5%

Holding up reasonably well.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Feb P)

Survey	76.0
Actual	69.6
Prior	78.4
Revised	n/a

The CNBC effect keeping expectations down.

One year inflation expectations jumped to 3.7% putting the Fed on high alert.

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2008-01-16 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 16, 2008 @ 4:08 pm (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Average Mortgage Purchasing Index (Jan 11)

Survey	n/a
Actual	461.20
Prior	414.00
Revised	n/a

Mortgage Refi’s (Jan 11)

Survey	n/a
Actual	3575.50
Prior	2494.20
Revised	n/a

Purchase index back on uptrend, refi way up. Lower rates and return of market functioning coming together nicely.

Still looks like housing could have bottomed October/November, but jury is still out pending data and revisions.

JP Morgan mtg revenue spiked up as JPM gains market share in mtg markets.

Houses are cheaper, lenders aggressive with real buyers, and income has continued higher.

See Mortgage applications soar.

Consumer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.3%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	n/a

Consumer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey	4.1%
Actual	4.1%
Prior	4.3%
Revised	n/a

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey	2.4%
Actual	2.4%
Prior	2.3%
Revised	n/a

See Food/fuel/$ bakes in core.

Industrial Production (Dec)

Survey	-0.2%
Actual	0.0%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	n/a

Graph looks OK – holding its own!

Capacity Utilization (Dec)

Survey	81.2%
Actual	81.4%
Prior	81.5%
Revised	81.6%

Drifting off some, but still at a relatively high level.

NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan)

Survey	19
Actual	19
Prior	19
Revised	18

Rounding bottom?