(an email exchange)
>
> On Thu, Aug 7, 2008 at 7:15 AM, Scott wrote:
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> crude moves further in backwardation.
>
Right, indicating futures buying subsiding and inventories not above desired levels for commerce.
>
> CL vs brent now 160 over vs 120 under 2 weeks ago!
>
Also indicating any excess inventory is gone, thanks!
Might be near the end of the second Master’s sell off.
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(an email)
> On Feb 19, 2008 10:03 AM, Mike wrote:
> Warren, note spec comments and dollar issues, a big hurdle to overcome
> if they go the other way …
> Mike
Hi Mike,
Agreed the dollar may have bottomed. Seems to have reached a level where exports are now growing at about 13% which maybe is the right number to accommodate the pressure from the non resident sector to slow it’s accumulation of $US financial assets.
However I continue to conclude the price of crude is being set by the Saudi’s/Russians acting as swing producer, and that there is sufficient demand to keep them in the driver’s seat. Quantity pumped keeps creeping up at current prices, with Saudis last reporting 9.2 million bpd output.
Crude at 98.70 now. Note crude goes up on news a refinery is down, when refineries are the only buyers of crude, so in fact it’s going up for other reasons (price setting by the swing producer?). Also, WTI is now ahead of Brent, indicating whatever was causing the sag in WTI vs Brent is over. WTI would ordinarily trade higher than Brent due to shipping charges.
Warren