Today’s factory order charts

This doesn’t look like much of a recovery?

The export game is getting tougher as well:

Tech not so hot either:

Here’s the report:


Highlights
Skewed by Boeing orders at the Farnborough Airshow, factory orders surged 10.5 percent in July. Excluding transportation equipment, which includes both aircraft and vehicles, factory orders actually slipped, down 0.8 percent in the month.

But there are important positives in the report including a sharp 1.2 percent rise for shipments and a 1.4 percent rise for shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Unfilled orders show an unusually outsized gain of 5.4 percent while inventories, up only 0.1 percent, will need to be refilled. Another positive is an upward revision to June orders, now at a very strong 1.5 percent vs a prior reading of plus 1.1 percent.

Aircraft orders are the standout star of the July report and mustn’t be dismissed. These orders are long term but will eventually boost factory shipments and employment. Though orders outside aircraft were soft in July, the trend is still positive. Today’s report, together with yesterday’s exceptionally strong ISM report for August, point to third-quarter strength for the manufacturing sector.

Donation information and new home sales chart

Also, I’ll be in NYC Friday and Saturday if anyone wants to get together for anything, or play some tennis. Trying to stay fit on the road.

Going from there to the PMC for the annual 170 mile two day bike ride/benefit for Jimmy Fund/Dana Farber cancer research.

Click here to make donation to the PMC

Dana Farber Cancer Institute’s Website

This is the real thing- raises about $40 million.

ALL of your donated $ go to research, 0 to overheads

Dana Farber is the cutting edge of real progress that filters down to all the rest.

Please donate what you think being on this free list is worth to you.
(0 floor, so don’t ask…)

Starting to look like maybe the mortgage purchase applications is in line with home sales:

New Home Sales

Vehicle sales hit 17 million

This is above expectations, a high for the year, and brings the 2014 average up to just over 16 million annual rate, making up for the winter slowdown.

Motor Vehicle Sales


Highlights
In an early signal of strength for June economic data, vehicle sales rose 1.2 percent in June to a 17.0 million annual rate which is the strongest rate since way back in July 2006. Sales of both North American-made and foreign-made vehicles rose in the month with domestic cars and imported trucks showing special strength. Today’s data point to yet another strong gain for the motor vehicle component of the retail sales report which rose 1.4 percent in May.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 16.9 million annual rate in June, Highest since July 2006

By Bill McBride

Based on an WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 16.9 million SAAR in June. That is up 7% from June 2013, and up 1% from the 16.7 million annual sales rate last month.

This was above the consensus forecast of 16.4 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).


Full size image

Consumer spending, personal income, PCE prices

The Commerce Department said consumer spending increased 0.2 percent after being flat in April. Spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, had been forecast rising 0.4 percent after a previously reported 0.1 percent dip in April.

When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending fell for a second straight month, suggesting spending this quarter could struggle to regain momentum after growing at its slowest pace in nearly five years in the first quarter.

Spending in May was probably constrained by weak healthcare spending as outlays on services barely rose for a second month.

While reports ranging from employment to manufacturing and the services industries suggest the economy has rebounded after sinking in the January-March period, the consumer spending data indicated that growth would probably fall short of the 4.0 percent annual pace that some economists are expecting in the second quarter.

Personal Income and Outlays

From Calculated Risk

Real PCE — PCE adjusted to remove price changes — decreased 0.1 percent in May, compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent in April. … The price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in May, the same increase as in April. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent in May, the same increase as in April. … The May price index for PCE increased 1.8 percent from May a year ago. The May PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.5 percent from May a year ago.

Note: Usually the two-month and mid-month methods can be used to estimate PCE growth for the quarter (using the first two months and mid-month of the quarter). However this isn’t very effective if there was an “event”, and in Q1 PCE was especially weak in January and February – and then surged in March.

Still, using the two-month method to estimate Q2 PCE growth, PCE was increasing at a 2.3% annual rate in Q2 2014 (using the mid-month method, PCE was increasing less than 1.5%). Since the comparison to March will be difficult, it appears PCE growth will be below 2% in Q2 (another weak quarter).

Note the now familiar down into winter, up some, and then settling down again pattern: