Category Archives: Daily

2009-01-26 USER

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Existing Home Sales (Dec )

Survey 4.40M
Actual 4.74M
Prior 4.49M
Revised 4.45M

 
Existing home inventories now being worked off rapidly as foreclosure sales move through the pipeline.

Inventories in general are all very low in absolute terms.

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Existing Home Sales MoM (Dec)

Survey -2.0%
Actual 6.5%
Prior -8.6%
Revised 9.4%

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Existing Home Sales YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.5%
Prior -11.4%
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales Inventory (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.676
Prior 4.163
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Dec)

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Dec)

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Leading Indicators (Dec)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

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Leading Indicators ALLX (Dec)


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2009-01-22 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.8%
Prior 15.8%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Jan 16)

Survey n/a
Actual 303.10
Prior 295.10
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Jan 16)

Survey n/a
Actual 6491.80
Prior 7414.10
Revised n/a

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Housing Starts (Dec)

Survey 605K
Actual 550K
Prior 625K
Revised 651K

 
Karim writes:

  • Housing starts fell 16% in December and building permits fell 10.7%, and both to all-time lows in nominal terms.
  • These numbers indicate that housing will be a drag on the economy in terms of GDP accounting at least through year-end.
  • The level of starts consistent with new household formation (and adjusting for obsolescence of the existing housing stock) is about 1.25mm.
  • But what the current level of starts of 550k does not reflect is the record level of vacant homes (about 1mm more than the 1985-2005 average).

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Building Permits (Dec)

Survey 600K
Actual 549K
Prior 616K
Revised 615K

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 17)

Survey 543K
Actual 589K
Prior 524K
Revised 527K

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims jumped 62k to 589k, and continuing claims by 93k to 4607k.
  • Both are new highs for the current cycle and the highest since 1982.

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Continuing Claims (Jan 10)

Survey 4534K
Actual 4607K
Prior 4497K
Revised 4510K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 17)

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House Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -1.8%
Prior -1.1%
Revised n/a

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House Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.7%
Prior -7.6%
Revised n/a

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House Price Index ALLX (Nov)


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2009-01-21 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 20)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.80%
Prior -2.20%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.10%
Prior -2.30%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 20)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.30%
Prior -1.90%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 20)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.50%
Prior -2.30%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 20)


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2009-01-16 USER

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Consumer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey -0.9%
Actual -0.7%
Prior -1.7%
Revised n/a

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CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

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CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

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CPI Core Index SA (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 216.816
Prior 216.849
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (Dec)

Survey 210.210
Actual 210.228
Prior 212.425
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Dec)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Dec)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Dec)

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Net Long Term TIC Flows (Nov)

Survey $15.0B
Actual -$21.7B
Prior $1.5B
Revised -$0.4B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual $56.8B
Prior $286.3B
Revised $260.6B

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Industrial Production MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -2.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.3%

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Industrial Production YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.5%
Prior -4.5%
Revised n/a

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Capacity Utilization (Dec)

Survey 74.5%
Actual 73.6%
Prior 75.4%
Revised 75.2%

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Dec)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Dec)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Dec)

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U of Michigan Confidence (Jan P)

Survey 59.0
Actual 61.9
Prior 60.1
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Jan P )


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2009-01-15 USER

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Producer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -1.9%
Prior -2.2%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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Producer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey -1.1%
Actual -0.9%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey 4.1%
Actual 4.3%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • PPI -1.9% m/m and now -0.9% y/y; core +0.2%; consumer goods category -2.6% m/m
  • Pipeline pressures continue to plunge: core intermediate goods -3% m/m and core crude -2.2%
  • Lots of Asian indicators suggesting price pressures will continue to plummet, especially in manufacturing
  • Japan machine tool orders – 72% y/y
  • Taiwan exports -42% y/y
  • Korean GDP -16% annualized in Q4!

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 10)

Survey 503K
Actual 524K
Prior 467K
Revised 470K

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Continuing Claims (Jan 3)

Survey 4620K
Actual 4497K
Prior 4611K
Revised 4612K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 10)

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims up 54k to 524k as number reverts back to pre-holiday levels
  • Continuing claims drop 115k to 4497k; as duration of unemployment lengthens, this number may become more volatile as individuals exhaust their claims (unless benefits are extended, which might happen)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Jan)

Survey -25.00
Actual -22.20
Prior -25.76
Revised -27.88

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Jan)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Jan)

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Philadelphia Fed (Jan)

Survey -35.0
Actual -24.3
Prior -32.9
Revised -36.1

 
Karim writes:

  • Philly Fed improves from -36.1 to -24.3, but remains well into contraction territory
  • Employment component falls from -28.6 to -39.1

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Jan)

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Jan)


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2009-01-14 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 15.8%
Prior -8.2%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Jan 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 295.80
Prior 344.20
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Jan 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 7414.10
Prior 5904.50
Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.72
Prior 6.07
Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey -5.3%
Actual -4.2%
Prior -6.7%
Revised -7.0%

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Import Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey -9.5%
Actual -9.3%
Prior -4.4%
Revised -5.4%

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Import Price Index ALLX1 (Dec)

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Import Price Index ALLX2 (Dec)

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -2.7%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -2.1%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.8%
Prior -8.2%
Revised n/a

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.4%
Actual -3.1%
Prior -1.6%
Revised -2.5%

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Business Inventories MoM (Nov)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.7%
Prior -0.6%
Revised n/a

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Business Inventories YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a


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2009-01-13 USER

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Even with lower fuel prices it keeps getting worse.

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 13)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.20%
Prior -0.80%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 13)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.30%
Prior 1.40%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 13)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.90%
Prior -1.30%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 13)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.30%
Prior -0.60%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 13)

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Trade Balance (Nov)

Survey -$51.0B
Actual -$40.4B
Prior -$57.2B
Revised -$56.7B

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Exports MoM (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.8%
Prior -2.3%
Revised n/a

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Imports MoM (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -12.0%
Prior -1.6%
Revised n/a

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Exports YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.7%
Prior 5.2%
Revised n/a

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Imports YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.6%
Prior 3.9%
Revised n/a

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Trade Balance ALLX (Nov)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Jan)

Survey 44.0
Actual 45.4
Prior 45.0
Revised n/a

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Monthly Budget Statement (Dec)

Survey -$83.0B
Actual -$83.6B
Prior -$48.3B
Revised n/a

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Monthly Budget Statement ALLX (Dec)


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2009-01-09 USER

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)

Survey -525K
Actual -524K
Prior -533K
Revised -584K

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -2589K
Prior -2024K
Revised n/a

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Dec)

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Unemployment Rate (Dec)

Survey 7.0%
Actual 7.2%
Prior 6.7%
Revised 6.8%

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Dec)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Dec)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Dec)

Survey -100K
Actual -149K
Prior -85K
Revised -104K

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.9%
Prior -4.6%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Dec)

Survey 3.6%
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.7%
Revised 3.8%

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Dec)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Dec)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 3 (Dec)

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Average Weekly Hours (Dec)

Survey 33.5
Actual 33.3
Prior 33.5
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Nov)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.2%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.3%
Prior 7.9%
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Nov)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Nov)


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2009-01-08 USER

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 3)

Survey 545K
Actual 467K
Prior 492K
Revised 491K

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Continuing Claims (Dec 27)

Survey 4483K
Actual 4611K
Prior 4506K
Revised 4510K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 3)


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2009-01-07 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 2)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Jan 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 344.20
Prior 320.90
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Jan 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 5904.50
Prior 6733.80
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 274.5%
Prior 148.4%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Dec)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Dec)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Dec)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Dec)

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ADP Employment Change (Dec)

Survey -495K
Actual -693K
Prior -250K
Revised -476K

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ADP ALLX (Dec)


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