Category Archives: Daily

2008-07-23 US Economic Releases

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jul 18)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.2%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Index (Jul 18)

Survey n/a
Actual 335.6
Prior 359.7
Revised n/a

A zig down and looking soft. Tables below show largest drops are in applications for adjustable rate mortgages, particularly government mortgages.

Also, I recall JPM’s recent earnings report showed a substantial increase in consumer mortgage lending, which could be taking volume from the mortgage bankers surveyed in this report.

Housing may be leveling off and moving up some, but no signs of actual strength yet.

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MBA Refinancing Index (Jul 18)

Survey n/a
Actual 1392.7
Prior 1474.9
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Jul 18)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Jul 18)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Jul 18)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Jul 18)


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2008-07-22 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Jul 15)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.5%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

Still wiggling their way higher as fiscal kicks in.

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Redbook Weekly YoY (Jul 15)

Survey n/
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.7%
Revised n/a

Also working its way higher.

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ICSC-UBS and Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jul 15)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)

Survey -9
Actual -16
Prior -12
Revised n/a

Big dip puts it back on its downtrend.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Jul)

Big drop in shipments,
interesting up tic in wages.

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OFHEO House Price Index MoM (May)

Survey -0.8%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -0.8%
Revised n/a

Better than expected, still down, but seems to be falling at a slower rate.

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OFHEO House Price Index YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -4.6%
Revised n/a

Rate of decline seems to have diminished some. So far, year over year changes for this price range doesn’t seem that severe.

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OFHEO House Price Index TABLE (May)

Several regions showing gains.

Unless commodities take a very large dive, the Fed needs an output gap in housing to keep a lid on overall prices.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jul 20)

Survey -42
Actual -41
Prior -41
Revised n/a

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ABC Consumer Confidence TABLE (Jul 20)


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2008-07-17 US Economic Releases

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Housing Starts (Jun)

Survey 960K
Actual 1066K
Prior 975K
Revised 977K

Karim writes:

Starts up 9.1%, due to the following.

*New York City enacted a new set of construction codes

effective for permits authorized as of July 1, 2008. In June there

was a large increase in building permits issued for multifamily

residential buildings in New York City.

Multi-family starts in Northeast up 102.6%.

Single family starts down 9.2% in northeast, and down 5.3% nationally.

Same effect on permits (up 73% for mult-family in northeast).

Single family permits down 3.5% nationally.

Initial claims rise from 348k to 366k.4wk average falls from 381k to 376k.

Continuing claims drop from 3203k to 3122k; 4wk average rises from 3126k to 3142k.

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Building Permits (Jun)

Survey 965K
Actual 1091K
Prior 969K
Revised 978K

James writes:

Total starts were up 9.1% but single family was down -5.3% while multi-fam was up 42.5%. Then look at the regional break down. Multi-fams were up 102.6% m/m in the northeast which apparently has something to do w/ a tax abatement for rushing into some starts and permits in the NY area. Don’t know the details there but what matters to the broader market is that single family starts and permits declined. Less supply to compete w/ tons of inventory is what we want to see so the net/net = positive.

Right, thanks, either way housing starts are muddling around the 1 million mark, down from about 2 million not long ago.

Actual inventories of new homes are falling quickly; so seems to me a shortage is developing.

The weekly applications are steady at levels that used to be associated with maybe 1.5 million annual starts.

Starts peaked at 2.6 million units around 1972 with only about 215 million population.

They can return to 1.5 million pretty quickly, and I’d still consider that a depressed level.

4 week average jobless claims again moved down a bit, as did continuing claims.

Corporate earnings pretty good so far.

Q2 GDP looking like maybe 2% to be released July 31.

Government deficit spending moving up nicely -the tide that’s lifting all boats- and supporting prices/’inflation’ which turns the relative value story into an inflation story.

Dems ready with more fiscal packages to fire off as needed.

While shoes do keep falling, each one seems to do less damage and pass more quickly than the prior bumps. The agencies were the latest, the USD at stake were the largest, and the ‘crisis’ didn’t even last a week.

With stocks on the move there will be more talk within the FOMC of the low Fed Funds rate creating an asset bubble like they think it did in 1999 and 2003.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 12)

Survey 380K
Actual 366K
Prior 346K
Revised 348K

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 5)

Survey 3180K
Actual 3122K
Prior 3202K
Revised 3203K

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Philadelphia Fed (Jul)

Survey -15.0
Actual -16.3
Prior -17.1
Revised n/a

Hanging tough off the bottom, but still depressed.

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE (Jul)

Prices paid jumped to 75.6 from numbers that were already way too high.


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2008-07-16 US Economic Releases

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jul 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior 7.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Index (Jul 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 359.7
Prior 365.8
Revised n/a

Minor down tic, still in a range that used to be indicative of 1.5 million housing starts per year, vs today’s approx 1 million.

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MBA Refinancing Index (Jul 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 1474.9
Prior 1379.3
Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 10.30
Prior 21.01
Revised n/a

Inflation and falling equity markets are getting everyone down.

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Consumer Price Index MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Higher than expected.

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CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Headline leaking into core.

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Consumer Price Index YoY (Jun)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 5.0%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

Breakout!

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CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Jun)

Survey 2.3%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

If it was a relative value story, this would be a lot lower and going down.

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CPI ALLX (Jun)

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CPI TABLE (Jun)

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CPI Core Index SA (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 215.526
Prior 214.832
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (Jun)

Survey 217.903
Actual 218.815
Prior 216.632
Revised n/a

Karim writes:

  • Headline up 1.1% and 5.0% y/y

Above Fed’s comfort zones.

  • Core up 0.323% m/m and 2.4% y/y

In the 70’s I recall core passing 3% about the time headline passed 6%.

Click to see CPI Charts and CPI Table from the 1970s.

The difference there is no supply response for crude oil in sight this time.

  • Largest contributor to core was housing, where first 0.3% rise in oer this year was posted, and also a 1.8% rise in the fuel and utility component of housing.

Weak demand isn’t yet bringing CPI down as the Fed has been forecasting.

  • Lodging away from home (0.7%) had its second straight strong gain; this is usually +/- more than 1% each month, so likely to give back next month.

Weak occupancy hasn’t brought this measure down.

  • Tobacco up 1.5% due to tax hike in NY
  • Other items likely to reverse next month based on usual patterns are apparel (0.1%) and vehicle prices (0.1%)

Maybe, but lower car sales may not bring prices down over time due to cost issues.

  • Education (+0.5) also above trend

Costs rising here at well. And most employees probably get CPI increases.

  • Bernanke probably knew this number yesterday when he said inflation would be ‘temporarily higher’ in short-term.

Yes, and he and Vice Chair Kohn will have their hands full with the hawks at the August

  • Also, chain-weighted core CPI rose 0.1% and 2.1% y/y. This is a better proxy for core PCE (Fed’s preferred measure) as its not a fixed-weight time series and thus picks up substitution of one good versus another in consumer purchasing behavior.

Yes. Keeps this series lower than CPI until we’re down to eating bread and water, as deteriorating real terms of trade weigh on our standard of living.

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Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)

Survey $70.0B
Actual $67.0B
Prior $115.1B
Revised n/a

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Total Net TIC Flows (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -$2.5B
Prior $60.6B
Revised $61.6B

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Industrial Production MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

Better then expected.

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Industrial Production YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.2%

Seems to be working its way lower over time. May be stabilizing with the weak USD.

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Capacity Utilization (Jun)

Survey 79.4%
Actual 79.9%
Prior 79.4%
Revised 79.6%

Higher than expected. The Fed is counting on slack to bring ‘inflation’ down.

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul)

Survey 18
Actual –
Prior 18
Revised –


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2008-07-15 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Fiscal spending seems to have stemmed the decline.

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales TABLE (Jun)

Same.

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Producer Price Index MoM (Jun)

Survey 1.4%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.4%
Revised n/a

Looks like a banana republic with a weak currency.

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PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Also looks to be working its way higher.

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Producer Price Index YoY (Jun)

Survey 8.7%
Actual 9.2%
Prior 7.2%
Revised n/a

Inflation pouring in through the front door – import prices.

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PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Jun)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.0%
Prior 3.0%
Revised n/a

Looking like its on the way up, as it’s recovered and surpassed the level of Aug 06 when Goldman changed their commodity index and triggered massive selling of gasoline.

The Fed is watching for headline to leak into core, which they’ve said is already happening.

When only food/crude/import prices go up, it’s a relative value story, as funds to buy that stuff mean less to buy other things, and they lag in price.

But in this case core measures are not going down to offset headline numbers.

True, they haven’t gone up that much yet, but they have gone up rather than down.

That means that yes, demand is ‘weak’ and unemployment creeping up,

But demand is still strong enough to support both higher headline CPI and rising core measures as well,

Supported by government spending which is not revenue constrained nor liquidity constrained,

And supported by booming exports as non residents trip over each other trying to spend their now unwanted multi $trillion hoard of US financial assets.

Current levels of demand are more than sufficient to support much higher levels of housing starts (though still low levels), relatively flat employment, and rising core inflation measures.

And US real terms of trade continue to deteriorate along with the standard of living as a foreign oil monopolist exacts ever higher relative prices.

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.8%

Lower than expected, due to weaker than expected auto sales, due to the wrong vehicles on the showroom floors, which will take a while to correct.

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Jun)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 1.2%
Revised n/a

A little weaker than expected but pretty good from a strong previous month.

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

Once again fiscal policy, not monetary policy, stops the slide.

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Empire Manufacturing (Jul)

Survey -8.0%
Actual -4.9%
Prior -8.7%
Revised n/a

May be on the mend from the lows.

Karim writes:

  • Retail sales a bit softer than expected..up 0.1% headline, up 0.8% ex-autos, and -0.5% ex-gas
  • Control (ex-autos, gas and building materials) up 0.3% and minor downward revisions to prior two months
  • PPI up 1.8% headline and 0.2% core; y/y 9.2% and 3.0% respectively
  • Pipeline pressures remain intense with intermediate up 2.1% m/m and crude 3.7%
  • Medical goods and services component decline (large component of PCE deflator; so June core PCE may come in 0.0% or 0.1%).
  • Empire survey shows modest improvement but stays in negative territory: -8.68 to -4.92

    • Right, Redbook sales show same moderate growth in non-auto sales. The wrong vehicles are on the showroom floors right now and it will take a while for the right ones to take their place.

    I have no idea what’s driving lower medical costs and whether further declines are to be expected, but seems highly unlikely.

    The dollar’s down again today.

    ‘Inflation’ is flowing in through that channel like water through a screen door on a submarine.

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    Redbook Store Sales (Jul 8)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 2.7%
    Prior 2.6%
    Revised n/a

    Moving up as fiscal policy kicks in.

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    Redbook Store Sales TABLE (Jul 8)

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    IBD/TIPP Economics Optimism (Jul)

    Survey 36.8
    Actual 37.4
    Prior 37.4
    Revised n/a

    A little better than expected.

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    Business Inventories (May)

    Survey 0.5%
    Actual 0.3%
    Prior 0.5%
    Revised n/a

    Possible that sales may be exceeding estimates and lowering inventories.

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    ABC Consumer Confidence (Jul 13)

    Survey -41
    Actual -41
    Prior -41
    Revised n/a

    Seems to have bottomed, but remains at low levels, probably due to inflation.


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2008-07-11 US Economic Releases

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Trade Balance (May)

Survey -$62.5B
Actual -$59.8B
Prior -$60.9B
Revised -$60.5B

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Trade Balance (May)

Seems to be working its way lower, but rising import prices are a moving target.
Without CBs and monetary authorities buying to help their exporters, I don’t think the rest of the world wants to accumulate $60 billion a month of financial assets, which means the USD will continue to fall and US prices will continue higher until the real trade gap falls to desired levels.

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Trade Balance Ex Petroleum (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -$26.636B
Prior -$25.724B
Revised n/a

This has come down quite a bit and should continue to fall over time.

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Exports YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 17.8%
Prior 19.6%
Revised n/a

Booming!

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Imports YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 12.5%
Prior 13.6%
Revised n/a

Working their way to lower rates of increase, even with energy prices rising.

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Import Price Index MoM (Jun)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.3%
Revised 2.6%

‘Inflation’ pouring in through the open window.

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Import Price Index YoY (Jun)

Survey 18.6%
Actual 20.5%
Prior 17.8%
Revised 18.8%

Inflation pouring in through the open window.

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U. of Michigan Confidence (Jul P)

Survey 55.5
Actual 56.6
Prior 56.4
Revised –

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U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE (Jul P)

Inflation hurting confidence even as current conditions have improved some.

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Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Jul P)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

Fed considers this reason for alarm.

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Inflation Expectations 5y Fwd (Jul P)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Way too high for the Fed and going the wrong way.

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Monthly Budget Statement (Jun)

Survey $34.0B
Actual $50.7B
Prior $27.5B
Revised n/a

Haven’t seen the detail. This can be very volatile due to timing issues.


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2008-07-10 US Economic Releases

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 5)

Survey 395K
Actual 346K
Prior 404K
Revised n/a

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 28)

Survey 3140K
Actual 3202K
Prior 3116K
Revised 3111K

Karim writes:

Initial claims down 58k to 346k; number distorted by seasonal adjustments related to expected annual maintenance at auto factories.

Claims number was adjusted to anticipate more seasonal layoffs in autos than occurred. When the expected add back doesn’t occur as expected, claims should return to prior level, all else being equal. Labor department official states the decline ‘a question of timing’,

Yes, it all comes out in the wash, but it takes a while; so, the 4 week moving average is a more useful indicator.

4wk avg drops to 380.5k from 390.5k.

Continuing claims jumps 91k to new cycle high of 3.202 million, highest since 12/03.

Higher continuing claims reflects lack of hiring and is related to longer duration of unemployment (and likely more tepid wage demands from those looking to find a job).

Also, with productivity running higher than GDP growth, by definition that means the growing real output can be accomplished with slightly fewer workers.

Twin themes remain: weakness due to lack of demand and higher prices due to higher costs of fuel/food/imports.

The numbers also show business would rather hire people already working than the unemployed, so the long term trend of more and more persistent long-term unemployment continues.

See ‘Full Employment and Price Stability‘ for ‘the answer’ and also the ‘base case’ for analysis.

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ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Jun)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 4.3%
Prior 3.0%
Revised 2.9%

Way better than expected. Hard for mainstream economists to believe fiscal policy will do much. They put their faith in interest rates, which never have done much, at least not in the intended direction.


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2008-07-09 US Economic Releases

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jul 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.5%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Index (Jul 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 365.8
Prior 342.8
Revised n/a

Moving back up some, still in the new lower range that used to coincide with maybe 1.5 million starts.

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MBA Refinancing Index (Jul 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 1379.3
Prior 1269.2
Revised n/a

Not a lot going on here.


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2008-07-08 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Jul 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

Holding up with the rebate checks.

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Redbook Sales YoY (Jul 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.9%
Prior 2.9%%
Revised n/a

Rebate checks doing their thing.

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Pending Home Sales MoM (May)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -4.7%
Prior 6.3%
Revised 7.1%

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Pending Home Sales YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.6%
Prior -13.0%
Revised n/a

Still looks like they may be moving back up to me.

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (May)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 1.4%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.7%
Prior 8.1%
Revised n/a

Moving up some but not problematic yet.

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Consumer Credit (May)

Survey $7.5B
Actual $7.8B
Prior $8.9B
Revised $7.8B

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jul 6)

Survey -43
Actual -41
Prior -43
Revised n/a

Still low but higher than expected and moving up with the rebates.


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