Category Archives: Daily

2008-11-12 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Nov 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Nov 11)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.0%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Nov 11)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.0%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Nov 11)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.2%
Prior -1.2%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Nov 11)


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Chain Store Sales

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Doesn’t look as bad as many would expect.

Maybe it’s being supported by lower fuel prices.

TABLE-US chain store sales fell 1.0 pct last week-ICSC

(Reuters) The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs on Tuesday released the following seasonally adjusted weekly data on U.S. chain store retail sales.
 

WEEK ENDING INDEX 1977=100 YEAR/YEAR CHANGE WEEKLY CHANGE
(percent) (percent)
Nov 8 477.2 0.4 -1.0
Nov 1 482.0 0.9 0.6
Oct 25 479.3 1.3 0.5
Oct 18 477.0 0.9 -1.6

 
The ICSC weekly U.S. retail chain store sales index is a joint publication between ICSC and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. It measures nominal same-store sales, excluding restaurant and vehicle demand, and represents about 75 retail chain stores.


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2008-11-07 USER

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

Survey -200K
Actual -240K
Prior -159K
Revised -284K

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -1078.00
Prior -698.00
Revised n/a

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Oct)

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Unemployment Rate (Oct)

Survey 6.3%
Actual 6.5%
Prior 6.1%
Revised n/a

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Oct)

Survey -65K
Actual -90K
Prior -51K
Revised -56K

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.8%
Prior -3.2%
Revised n/a

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Manufacturing Payrolls ALLX (Oct)

 
Karim writes:

Payrolls:

Worse than expected (but that was expected)

  • -240k; unemployment rate rises from 6.1% to 6.5%

  • Net revisions -179k (Sep revised from -159k to -284k)

  • Hours continue to shrink -0.3% m/m and -2.6% annualized over past 3mths

  • Avg hourly earnings 0.2%

  • Avg duration of unemployment jumps from 18.4weeks to 19.7

  • Diffusion index falls from 38.1 to 37.6

By industry:

  • Mfg -90k

  • Construction -49k

  • Retail -38k

  • Finance -24k

  • Temp -34k

  • Education 21k

  • Govt 23k

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Oct)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 3.5%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Average Weekly Hours (Oct)

Survey 33.6
Actual 33.6
Prior 33.6
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.3%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 0.6%

 
Falling?

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 9.7%
Prior 10.9%
Revised n/a

 
Past the peak?

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Sep)

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Pending Home Sales (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 89.2
Prior 93.5
Revised n/a

 
Still a mini trend higher.

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Sep)

Survey -3.4%
Actual -4.6%
Prior 7.4%
Revised 7.5%

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.7%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

 
Not bad! probably lots of foreclosure sales.


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2008-11-06 USER

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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 4.3%
Revised 3.6%

 
Better than expected but slipping a bit.

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 1 (3Q P)

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 2 (3Q P)

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 3.0%
Actual 3.6%
Prior -0.5%
Revised -0.1%

 
Worse than expected but still reasonable.

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Unit Labor Costs ALLX (3Q P)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 1)

Survey 477K
Actual 481K
Prior 479K
Revised 485K

 
About at recession levels.

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Continuing Claims (Oct 25)

Survey 3743K
Actual 3843K
Prior 3715K
Revised 3721K

 
Also looking like recession levels.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 1)

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims fall 4k to 481k, but prior week revised up 6k to 485k (4wk avg 477k)
    Real story is latest jump in continuing claims, from 3721k to 3843k (4wk avg 3754k)


  • Higher continuing claims tied to longer duration of unemployment and in turn lower wage pressures


  • Now look for payrolls to exceed -300k tomorrow; would be consistent with across the board weaker-than-expected data for past month.


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2008-11-05 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -20.3%
Prior 16.8%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 260.90
Prior 303.10
Revised n/a

 
Down through the lows- looking like housing is taking a second leg down.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 1075.40
Prior 1489.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 31)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 78.9%
Prior 32.6%
Revised n/a

 
Trending higher along with other employment indicators.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Oct)

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Oct)

Survey 47.0
Actual 44.4
Prior 50.2
Revised n/a


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2008-11-04 USER

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Factory Orders YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.5%
Prior 3.9%
Revised n/a

 
Dip down, but not terrible yet.

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Factory Orders MoM (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.5%
Prior -4.3%
Revised n/a

 
Down, but down less than last month.

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Sep)

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Nov 4)

Survey n/a
Actual .90%
Prior 1.30%
Revised n/a

 
Looks to still be weakening but off the bottom and still positive.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Nov 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.60%
Prior 0.50%
Revised n/a

 
Same, still on the plus side.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Nov 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.30%
Prior 0.70%
Revised n/a

 
Looking lower, but still off the recent lows.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Nov 4)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.20%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE


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2008-11-03 USER

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Construction Spending MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.8%
Actual -0.3%
Prior 0.0%
Revised 0.3%

 
Better than expected and last month revised up.
Seems real estate is the only sector doing better than expected.

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Construction Spending YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.6%
Prior -6.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still looking down, but seems to be leveling off.

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Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Sep)

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ISM Manufacturing (Oct)

Survey 41.0
Actual 38.9
Prior 43.5
Revised n/a

 
Fell off a cliff.

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ISM Prices Paid (Oct)

Survey 48.0
Actual 37.0
Prior 53.5
Revised n/a

 
Also a very large drop.


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2008-10-31 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.4%

 
A tick better than expected but last month revised down same.

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Personal Income YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.3%
Revised n/a

 
Looks to be on the decline as expected.

Lower interest rates are also a drag on income, as households are net savers.

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Personal Income ALLX (Sep)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.3%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

 
Worse than expected and took dive as the publicity around the credit crisis petrified businesses and consumers.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.8%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Heading south but still growing some.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Sep)

Survey 4.1%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected and staying high even with commodities coming down.

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PCE Core MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected.

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PCE Core YoY (Sep)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.5%

 
Holding firm, at least for now.

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Employment Cost Index (3Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

 
Well contained.

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (3Q)

 
The surveys have a large subjective component, and have all taken dives recently.

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.96%
Prior -17.76%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 219.67
Prior 224.28
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Oct)

Survey 48.0
Actual 37.8
Prior 56.7
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 42.0
Prior 46.0
Revised n/a


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2008-10-30 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q A)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.3%
Prior 2.8%
Revised n/a

 
A bit better than exected, and longer term the chart shows gradual declining rates of growth of GDP.

Karim writes:

  • GDP weak across the board

  • Economy contracts at 0.3% annualized rate in Q3

  • Sector changes (all annualized)

  • Personal consumption -3.1%

  • Non residential investment -1%

  • Residential investment (housing) -19.1%

  • Exports 5.9% (from 12.3%)

  • Government 5.8%

Government spending to keep the numbers from being a lot worse.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.8%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Same, been trending down for quite a while.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

 
Nominal is sagging as well, indicating weakening nominal demand.

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GDP Price Index (3Q A)

Survey 4.0%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected, but of no concern to a ‘forward looking’ Fed.

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GDP ALLX (3Q A)

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Core PCE QoQ (3Q A)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.9%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Core continues to march higher, and unless crude prices stay at the lows this can continue for several quarters.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25)

Survey 475K
Actual 479K
Prior 478K
Revised 479K

 
Still looks to be moving up.

Karim writes:

  • Initial unchanged at 479k but no hurricane effects so underlying trend weaker by about 12-15k

  • Continuing claims drop 12k from upwardly revised 3727k to 3715k

  • Looks like -250 to -300k on next payrolls.

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Continuing Claims (Oct 18)

Survey 3735K
Actual 3715K
Prior 3720K
Revised 3727K

 
Near previous peaks, remains high.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Oct 25)


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2008-10-29 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 16.8%
Prior -16.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 303.10
Prior 279.30
Revised n/a

 
A small bounce to what are still very low levels.

But no sign of a collapse

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 1489.40
Prior 1158.80
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 24)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 24)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 24)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 24)

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Durable Goods Orders MoM (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.8%
Prior -5.5%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.4%
Prior -8.9%
Revised n/a

 
A volatile series. Up some but the overall trend is still looking lower.

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.1%
Prior -4.1%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.6%
Prior -6.0%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods ALLX (Sep)


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