Starts and permits down and below expectations. I see this as removing any hope of any kind of sustainable growth. The traditional sources of private sector credit expansion- housing, vehicles, and general investment are continuing to decelerate when acceleration is needed just to replace the capital expenditures that were being generated by $100 oil. And even then GDP growth was modest, at best.

United States : Housing Starts

Highlights
Data on the housing sector are slowing going into the key spring season. Housing starts fell a very sharp 8.8 percent in March to a 1.089 million annualized rate which is well below Econoday’s consensus for 1.167 million and below the low estimate for 1.120 million. Permits are showing similar weakness, down 7.7 percent at a 1.086 million rate which is likewise below both the consensus and low estimate.

Weakness in starts is split roughly evenly between single-family and multi-family components with weakness in permits concentrated in multi-families. Nevertheless, there is fundamental strength in the year-on-year rates, at plus 14.2 percent for starts and a less spectacular plus 4.6 percent for permits.

Regional data show declines throughout except for starts in the Northeast with ongoing work tied to a rush last year in permits (on a changes in New York City real estate law). Turning to permits, the Midwest is showing the most strength with a 24.2 percent year-on-year gain followed by the South at 11.3 percent. Not favorable is weakness in the West, a key region for new housing where permits are down a year-on-year 6.1 percent. Permits in the Northeast are down 21.7 percent.

A positive in the report is strength in total completions, up 3.5 percent in the month for a 31.6 percent year-on-year gain. Yet most of this report is downbeat. Spring is the season that those in the housing sector count on, but momentum definitely is not building. Watch for existing home sales for March on tomorrow’s calendar.

Nor is there any sign of life at the retail sales level:

A bit of an increase after a dip, but still low and still depressed, as per the chart.

And spikes up like this have most often subsequently reversed:

MBA Mortgage Applications

Highlights
Driven by falling interest rates, mortgage application activity was brisk in the April 8 week both for home purchases, up 8.0 percent, and refinancing, up 11.0 percent from the previous week. Purchase applications are up a striking 24 percent from this time last year, attaining the second highest level since May 2010. Mortgage rates fell to the lowest level since January 2015, with the average 30-year fixed rate for conforming mortgages ($417,000 or less) down 4 basis points from the prior week at 3.82 percent.

Bad one here, and not to forget sales = income:

Retail Sales

Highlights
Retail sales, down a disappointing 0.3 percent in March, were pulled lower by auto sales but unfortunately do show wider weakness. Auto sales fell a very steep 2.1 percent in March and last posted a monthly gain way back in November. This is the biggest drop for vehicle sales since February last year.

In an offset, gasoline sales, boosted by higher prices at the pump, jumped 0.9 percent. Excluding just gasoline — which offers a very telling reading on consumer demand — retail sales fell 0.4 percent. Excluding both autos and gasoline, sales rose 0.1 percent which is 2 tenths below expectations.

A look at year-on-year rates helps to clarify trends in the data. Overall retail sales are up only 1.7 percent, well down from 3.7 percent in February. Excluding autos, sales are up only 1.8 percent. The best reading comes from ex-auto ex-gas which is at plus 3.9 percent for, however, a 9 tenths decline from February. The reading of the greatest concern, however, is once again excluding only gasoline where year-on-year sales slowed to plus 3.3 percent from February’s 5.4 percent.

A sign of the month’s weakness is contraction at restaurants, which like autos is a discretionary category and which fell a very sharp 0.8 percent in the month. A plus is building materials which rose a very strong 1.4 percent for a second month in gains that point to extending strength for residential investment. Other components include a sharp decline for apparel and for department stores, offset by a second straight strong gain for health & personal care.

There are upward revisions to February but they definitely do not offset weakness, despite whatever uncertainties over Easter adjustments, in the immediate month of March. This report, especially the stubborn weakness for auto sales, raises key questions over the health of the consumer, who is benefiting from low unemployment but not from wage strength. The report especially raises questions over the outlook for overall economic growth.

And more bad:

Business Inventories

Highlights
Sales are falling but fortunately so are inventories which fell 0.1 percent in February vs a 0.4 percent decline for sales. The combination keeps the inventory-to-sales ratio, which has been trending higher, at 1.41.

Retail inventories rose a very steep 0.6 percent in February especially against a 0.2 percent decline for sales. Retail inventories of autos, where sales have been weak, rose 1.3 percent in the month to swell the inventory-to-sales ratio to 2.14 from 2.12. Inventories at both manufacturers and wholesalers fell in the month to keep ratios for these readings stable.

Retail inventories, given this morning’s weak retail sales report for March, may be a risk to the nation’s inventory outlook, especially for autos where inventory backup also points to trouble for factory production. Lower down the supply chain, however, sales and inventories are balanced, at least for now.

When this we going up a bit it made headlines. Now when it’s flashing recession it doesn’t:

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Highlights
Small business owners remain pessimistic, with the small business optimism index dipping another 0.3 points in March to 92.6, surpassing February’s two year low and remaining well below the 42-year average of 98. Four of the 10 component indices posted a gain and six posted declines. Among the most optimistic parts of the index, plans to increase capital outlays rose to remain at very solid levels while the job openings were a little less hard to fill in March, but still very hard. But earnings trends continued turning from bad to worse in March, and though small business owners were more optimistic than in February in their expectations that the economy will improve, this component of the index is still in deep pessimistic territory at a net negative 17 percent.

Below prior recession levels:

And no upturn hear yet:

Deflationary pressures continue: