Tag Archives: Redbook Store Sales

2008-11-25 USER

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Karim writes:

  • Overlooked with the Fed headlines, but likely to lead to further downward revisions to Q4/Q1 growth outlook.

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -0.10%
Revised n/a

 
Looking very soft, even with low gasoline prices.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.90%
Prior 0.30%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.40%
Prior -0.90%
Revised n/a

 
Same.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

 

Karim writes:

  • Johnson Redbook sales down 1.3% m/m thru 3rd week of November.
  • Another negative retail sales month sets up Q4 real GDP for at least -4%

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Nov 25)

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GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q P)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

 
As expected and in line with the longer term down trend in real gdp growth

Good evidence of a continuing and increasing lack of aggregate demand.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.7%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Mildly positive but the trend is still looking down.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

 
Barely positive.

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GDP Price Index (3Q P)

Survey 4.2%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

 
High but expected to fall with falling commodity prices.

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Core PCE QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 2.9%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

 
Looks to be in a long term uptrend, though also expected to fall with commodity prices.

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GDP ALLX 1 (3Q P)

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GDP ALLX 2 (3Q P)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Sep)

Survey 163.00
Actual 161.56
Prior 164.57
Revised 164.40

 
Took a turn for the worse.

Karim writes:

  • Case Shiller down 1.85% q/q and -17.4% y/y

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Sep)

Survey -16.90%
Actual -17.40%
Prior -16.62%
Revised -16.60%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (3Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 150.04
Prior 155.32
Revised 155.45

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (3Q)

Survey -17.05%
Actual -16.55%
Prior -15.40%
Revised -15.07%

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Consumer Confidence (Nov)

Survey 38.0
Actual 44.9
Prior 38.0
Revised 38.8

 
Tiny blip up- well above expectations.

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Nov)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Nov)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

Survey -27
Actual -38
Prior -26
Revised n/a

 
Far worse than expected, more in line with Q4 GDP forecasts of -4%.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Nov)

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House Price Index MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.3%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.8%

 
Also falling like a rock.

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House Price Index YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.0%
Prior -6.1%
Revised n/a

 
No sign of turning around yet.

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House Price Index ALLX (Sep)

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House Price Purchase Index QoQ (3Q)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.8%
Prior -1.4%
Revised n/a

 
The decline has resumed.


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2008-09-23 USER

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep. 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.3%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Holding steady off the lows.

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.00%
Prior -1.60%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.2%
Prior 1.4%
Revised n/a

 
Steady and off the lows as well.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Sep 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.20%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 23)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)

Survey -12
Actual -18
Prior -16
Revised n/a

 
Worse than expected and looking very weak.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Sep)

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House Price Index MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.6%
Prior 0.0%
Revised -0.3%

 
Weaker than expected but still off the lows and seems to be working it’s way irregularly higher.

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House Price Index YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.3%
Prior -5.0%
Revised n/a

 
Losing 5.3% year over year is a lot for this index.

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House Price Index TABLE (Jul)


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2008-09-09 USER

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Stores Sales YoY (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

 
Muddling through, well off the bottom, and not at recession levels.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep. 9)

 
Pretty much the same, muddling through and far from recession levels.

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Pending Home Sales (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 86.5
Prior 89.4
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Jul)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -3.2%
Prior 5.3%
Revised 5.8%

 
A bit lower but last month’s gain revised even higher.

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.5%
Prior -11.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still negative but looks to be surfacing rapidly.

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.4%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 10.6%
Prior 9.3%
Revised n/a

 
Inventories up but within normal fluctuations.

The question is causation- weak sales and unwanted inventories or building inventories for increasing demand

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Jul)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Sep)

Survey 44.0
Actual 45.8
Prior 42.8
Revised n/a

 


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2008-09-03 USER

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US Economic Releases

MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 349.0
Prior 315.9
Revised n/a

Nice to see this picking up. With agencies sorted out and income holding up, it should continue to improve over time.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 1059.7
Prior 1038.0
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Aug 29)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 11.7%
Prior 140.8%
Revised n/a

This series hasn’t been all that useful one way or another.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts ALLX (Aug)

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Looks okay. No recession here.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

Looks okay.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 2)

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Factory Orders MoM (Jul)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.3%
Prior 1.7%
Revised 2.1%

Better than expected and previous month revised up.

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Factory Orders YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 7.5%
Revised n/a

Could be construed as being in an uptrend!

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Factory Orders ALLX (Jul)

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Aug)

Survey 9.4M
Actual 10.4M
Prior 9.1M
Revised n/a

Even this has turned up, though from very low levels.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Aug)

Survey 13.0M
Actual 13.7M
Prior 12.5M
Revised n/a

Better than expected and may have bottomed. As the mix of vehicles produces switches, expect sales to increase.

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Vehicle Sales ALLX (Aug)


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2008-08-26 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Aug 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Aug 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Aug 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Aug 26)

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Consumer Confidence (Aug)

Survey 53.0
Actual 56.9
Prior 51.9
Revised n/a

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Aug)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Aug)

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S&P-CaseShiller Home Price Index (Jun)

Survey 167.20
Actual 167.69
Prior 168.54
Revised n/a

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S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY (Jun)

Survey -16.20%
Actual -15.92%
Prior -15.78%
Revised -15.78%

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S&P-CaseShiller US HPI (2Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 155.32
Prior 159.20
Revised 159.03

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S&P-CaseShiller US HPI YoY (2Q)

Survey -16.2%
Actual -15.4%
Prior -14.1%
Revised -14.2%

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S&P-CaseShiller US HPI QoQ (2Q)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.33%
Prior -6.75%
Revised n/a

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House Price Index MoM (Jun)

Survey -0.4%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.3%
Revised -0.4%

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House Price Index YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -4.8%
Revised n/a

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House Price Purchase Index QoQ (2Q)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -1.4%
Prior -1.7%
Revised -1.7%

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House Price Purchase Index YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.71%
Prior -0.06%
Revised n/a

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House Price Purchase Index Loans by Type TABLE (2Q)

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House Price Purchase Index ALLX (2Q)

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House Price Index TABLE (Jun)

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HPI ALLX 1 (Jun)

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HPI ALLX 2 (Jun)

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New Home Sales (Jul)

Survey 525K
Actual 515K
Prior 530K
Revised 503K

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New Home Sales MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.9%
Actual 2.4%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -2.1%

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New Home Sales Total YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -35.3%
Prior -36.6%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales ALLX (Jul)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)

Survey -10
Actual -16
Prior -16
Revised n/a

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Aug)

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Aug 24)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior -49
Revised –

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ABC Consumer Confidence ALLX (Aug 24)


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2008-08-05 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Aug 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.0%
Prior 1.2%
Revised n/a

Flat, but year over year still looking ok.

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Aug 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.9%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

Continues higher into today’s meeting.

By itself, generally not an important number for the Fed.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Aug 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.5%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

Also moving up, even after rebates have gone out.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Aug 5)

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Jul)

Survey 48.8
Actual 49.5
Prior 48.2
Revised n/a

Better than expected, seems to be holding at muddle through levels.

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite ALLX 1 (Jul)

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite ALLX 2 (Jul)


Karim writes:

  • Employment up, export orders and prices paid down were largest movers. Number is for July, so employment number doesn’t seem consistent with NFP data for same month.
  • Export orders do seem consistent with recent data out of Europe and Japan (Eurozone retail sales for June that came out today showed down 3.1% y/y).

    • “Our business remains at about the same level as the previous month, with continued focus on cost reduction.” (Finance & Insurance)

    “The general state of the home-building industry has not changed since last month; however, with the commodity and code changes going into 2009, we face much higher construction costs and reduced margins across the entire supply chain.” (Construction)

    Right, prices to rise even as volumes remain low, as headline leaks into core via cost push.

    “Continue to see slowdown in local economy.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)

    “While still positive, the overall outlook for 2008 for our company is not as high as earlier in the year.” (Wholesale Trade)

    “Governmental spending for services is up this period.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

    Yes, government deficit spending on the rise.

    July June
    2008 2008
    Index 49.5 48.2

    While below 50, this still implies positive GDP growth and is not collapsing as feared.

    Activity 49.6 49.9
    Prices Paid 80.8 84.5

    Still way high.

    New Orders 47.9 48.6
    Employment 47.1 43.8

    Agreed – not in sync with other employment indicators, but the other numbers reflect large numbers of new entrants to the labor market – a higher labor force participation rate.

    So these companies maybe planning employment increases, but falling short of those new people now reported to be looking for work

    Export Orders 47.5 52.0
    Imports 49.0 50.5

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    FOMC Rate Decision (Aug 5)

    Survey 2.00%
    Actual 2.00%
    Prior 2.00%
    Revised 2.00%

    Fisher voting to hike, and others placated by stronger anti-inflation rhetoric.

    History will not be kind to this Fed.


    Karim writes:

    • Bland statement-1 dissent (Fisher)
    • Dovish-
        <
      • Economic activity ‘expanded’ in the 2nd qtr (no mention of ongoing expansion)
      • Labor markets have softened further and markets remain under considerable stress
      • No mention that downside risks to growth have diminished (as they did last time)

    Hawkish-Upside risks to inflation are also of ‘significant’ concern (new)

    Bottom Line: No guidance of anything imminent (i.e., Sep move is off the table). October 29 meeting is 1 week before election and Nov payrolls report, so December meeting earliest likely to see a move, if any.

    NEW

    Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth.

    Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.

    Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

    OLD

    Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

    The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year. However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high.

    The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time. Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.


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2008-07-29 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Jul 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Jul 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

Still inching higher.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jul 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.9%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

No let up here yet either.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jul 29)

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S&P-Case Shiller Home Price Index (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 168.54
Prior 169.85
Revised 170.00

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S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY (May)

Survey -16.00%
Actual -15.78%
Prior -15.30%
Revised -15.22%

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Case Shiller ALLX 1 (May)

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Case Shiller ALLX 2 (May)

Still declining but the rate of decline is quickly diminishing,

In line with other housing indicators that are appear to have bottomed.

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Consumer Confidence (Jul)

Survey 50.1
Actual 51.9
Prior 50.4
Revised 51.0

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Jul)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

Karim writes:

  • Headline confidence rises from 51 to 51.9 (first gain since Dec)
  • Jobs Plentiful less jobs hard to get falls from -15.6 to -16.8 (new cycle low); with initial claims back above 400k now, payrolls on Friday have downside risk to -75k consensus. As important, increasing jobs hard to get is correlated to increasing duration of unemployment.
  • Plans to buy an auto fall to new cycle low of 5.0 from 5.1
  • Plans to buy a home increases from cycle low of 2.4 to 2.7
  • Plans to buy a major appliance fall to new cycle low of 27.7 from 28.3

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jul 27)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior -41
Revised –

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ABC Consumer Confidence ALLX (Jul 27)


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2008-07-22 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Jul 15)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.5%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

Still wiggling their way higher as fiscal kicks in.

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Redbook Weekly YoY (Jul 15)

Survey n/
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.7%
Revised n/a

Also working its way higher.

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ICSC-UBS and Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jul 15)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)

Survey -9
Actual -16
Prior -12
Revised n/a

Big dip puts it back on its downtrend.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Jul)

Big drop in shipments,
interesting up tic in wages.

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OFHEO House Price Index MoM (May)

Survey -0.8%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -0.8%
Revised n/a

Better than expected, still down, but seems to be falling at a slower rate.

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OFHEO House Price Index YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -4.6%
Revised n/a

Rate of decline seems to have diminished some. So far, year over year changes for this price range doesn’t seem that severe.

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OFHEO House Price Index TABLE (May)

Several regions showing gains.

Unless commodities take a very large dive, the Fed needs an output gap in housing to keep a lid on overall prices.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jul 20)

Survey -42
Actual -41
Prior -41
Revised n/a

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ABC Consumer Confidence TABLE (Jul 20)


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2008-07-15 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Fiscal spending seems to have stemmed the decline.

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales TABLE (Jun)

Same.

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Producer Price Index MoM (Jun)

Survey 1.4%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.4%
Revised n/a

Looks like a banana republic with a weak currency.

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PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Also looks to be working its way higher.

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Producer Price Index YoY (Jun)

Survey 8.7%
Actual 9.2%
Prior 7.2%
Revised n/a

Inflation pouring in through the front door – import prices.

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PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Jun)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.0%
Prior 3.0%
Revised n/a

Looking like its on the way up, as it’s recovered and surpassed the level of Aug 06 when Goldman changed their commodity index and triggered massive selling of gasoline.

The Fed is watching for headline to leak into core, which they’ve said is already happening.

When only food/crude/import prices go up, it’s a relative value story, as funds to buy that stuff mean less to buy other things, and they lag in price.

But in this case core measures are not going down to offset headline numbers.

True, they haven’t gone up that much yet, but they have gone up rather than down.

That means that yes, demand is ‘weak’ and unemployment creeping up,

But demand is still strong enough to support both higher headline CPI and rising core measures as well,

Supported by government spending which is not revenue constrained nor liquidity constrained,

And supported by booming exports as non residents trip over each other trying to spend their now unwanted multi $trillion hoard of US financial assets.

Current levels of demand are more than sufficient to support much higher levels of housing starts (though still low levels), relatively flat employment, and rising core inflation measures.

And US real terms of trade continue to deteriorate along with the standard of living as a foreign oil monopolist exacts ever higher relative prices.

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.8%

Lower than expected, due to weaker than expected auto sales, due to the wrong vehicles on the showroom floors, which will take a while to correct.

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Jun)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 1.2%
Revised n/a

A little weaker than expected but pretty good from a strong previous month.

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

Once again fiscal policy, not monetary policy, stops the slide.

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Empire Manufacturing (Jul)

Survey -8.0%
Actual -4.9%
Prior -8.7%
Revised n/a

May be on the mend from the lows.

Karim writes:

  • Retail sales a bit softer than expected..up 0.1% headline, up 0.8% ex-autos, and -0.5% ex-gas
  • Control (ex-autos, gas and building materials) up 0.3% and minor downward revisions to prior two months
  • PPI up 1.8% headline and 0.2% core; y/y 9.2% and 3.0% respectively
  • Pipeline pressures remain intense with intermediate up 2.1% m/m and crude 3.7%
  • Medical goods and services component decline (large component of PCE deflator; so June core PCE may come in 0.0% or 0.1%).
  • Empire survey shows modest improvement but stays in negative territory: -8.68 to -4.92

    • Right, Redbook sales show same moderate growth in non-auto sales. The wrong vehicles are on the showroom floors right now and it will take a while for the right ones to take their place.

    I have no idea what’s driving lower medical costs and whether further declines are to be expected, but seems highly unlikely.

    The dollar’s down again today.

    ‘Inflation’ is flowing in through that channel like water through a screen door on a submarine.

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    Redbook Store Sales (Jul 8)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 2.7%
    Prior 2.6%
    Revised n/a

    Moving up as fiscal policy kicks in.

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    Redbook Store Sales TABLE (Jul 8)

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    IBD/TIPP Economics Optimism (Jul)

    Survey 36.8
    Actual 37.4
    Prior 37.4
    Revised n/a

    A little better than expected.

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    Business Inventories (May)

    Survey 0.5%
    Actual 0.3%
    Prior 0.5%
    Revised n/a

    Possible that sales may be exceeding estimates and lowering inventories.

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    ABC Consumer Confidence (Jul 13)

    Survey -41
    Actual -41
    Prior -41
    Revised n/a

    Seems to have bottomed, but remains at low levels, probably due to inflation.


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