Tag Archives: Challenger Job Cuts

2008-06-04 US Economic Release

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]


2008-06-04 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVPRCH Index (May 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 333.6
Prior 352.7
Revised n/a

Not looking good, as the ‘old consumption economy’ – cars, houses, etc.- gives way to the new export economy with the allocations coming via ‘price’ as higher food/fuel prices take away domestic spending power and the foreign sector scrambles to spend it’s now unwanted multi $trillion hoard on US goods, services, and domestic assets, and keeps GDP muddling through.

First, probably fighting strong seasonals.

Second, purchase applications fall off doesn’t jibe with recent housing data and confidence numbers that have been rebounding.

Third, mortgage bankers could be continuing to lose market share to banks and other direct lenders as secondary markets remain problematic.

[top][end]


2008-06-04 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1496.1
Prior 2013.5
Revised n/a

[top][end]


2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 45.6%
Prior 27.4%
Revised n/a

Moving up. This hasn’t been much of an economic indicator, but employment is a lagging indicator and it makes sense for it to keep getting worse for a couple of quarters or so past the bottom of the cycle.

[top][end]

2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts by Region TABLE

Challenger Job Cuts by Region TABLE

[top][end]

2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts by Industry TABLE

Challenger Job Cuts by Industry TABLE

[top][end]


2008-06-04 US Hiring

Hiring

[top][end]


2008-06-04 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (May)

Survey -30K
Actual 40K
Prior 10K
Revised 13K

This report is private sector only. Government employment may be ticking up as we approach the election, as spending delayed from 2007 kicks in.

[top][end]


2008-06-04 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ

Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (1Q F)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


2008-06-04 Nonfarm Productivity YoY

Nonfarm Productivity YoY (1Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


2008-06-04 Unit Labor Costs QoQ

Unit Labor Costs QoQ (1Q F)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


2008-06-04 Unit Labor Costs per Unit

Unit Labor Cost per Unit (1Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 117.9
Prior 118.0
Revised n/a

[top][end]


2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (May)

Survey 51.0
Actual 51.7
Prior 52.0
Revised n/a

Another better than expected report. Clearly above recession levels, and supporting forecasts for higher GDP this quarter.

[top][end]


2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

Most categories noticeably stronger. Employment down some, but the average of the last few months is rising. New Exports Orders back up as well.

[top][end]


2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid

ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid

Survey n/a
Actual 77.0
Prior 72.1
Revised n/a

This is getting ‘out of control’ from the FOMC’s point of view.


[top]

Share

2008-05-01 US Economic Releases

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]


2008-05-01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 27.4%
Prior 9.4%
Revised n/a

Seem to be drifting higher.

[top]


2008-05-01 Personal Income

Personal Income (Mar)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

Not the stuff of recessions.

[top]


2008-05-01 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Muddling through.

[top]

2008-05-01 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Still far too high for comfort for a mainstream economist.

[top]


2008-05-01 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

I’m anticipation more 0.3%s for the rest of this year.

[top]


2008-05-01 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Starting to move back up.

[top]


2008-05-01 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 26)

Survey 365K
Actual 380K
Prior 342K
Revised 345K

No recession yet.

[top]


2008-05-01 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Apr 19)

Survey 2950K
Actual 3019K
Prior 2934K
Revised 2945K

No recession yet.

[top]


2008-05-01 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey 48.0
Actual 48.6
Prior 48.6
Revised n/a

Staying above recession levels.

[top]


2008-05-01 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey 83.5
Actual 84.5
Prior 83.5
Revised n/a

Inflation ripping!

[top]


2008-05-01 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -0.3%
Revised 0.4%

[top]


2008-05-01 Construction Spending YoY

Construction Spending YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.4%
Prior -2.2%
Revised n/a

Still weak.

[top]

Total Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 15.0M
Actual —
Prior 15.1M
Revised —

[comments]

[top]

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 11.4M
Actual –
Prior 11.1M
Revised –

[comments]


[top]

Share

2008-04-02 US Economic Releases

Posted on by

2008-04-02 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Mar 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 356.0
Prior 403.7
Revised n/a

Down this week, maybe a holiday issue. Looks looks like Q1 was in a lower range than Q4, but not all that bad.

Also, mortgage bankers have less capacity than previously, and banks are said to be gaining market share.

2008-04-02 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Mar 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 2636.0
Prior 4255.2
Revised n/a

Refi’s have been coming in spikes. Not sure why.

2008-04-02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 9.4%
Prior -14.2%
Revised n/a

This hasn’t been a reliable indicator but nonetheless seems to indicate a recession isn’t in the cards.

2008-04-02 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Survey -45K
Actual 8K
Prior -23K
Revised -18K

ADP flattish, and last month revised up a bit.

Friday’s payroll number could be much the same: last month revised up some, and current month a bit higher than expected.

The overall trend is to less job creation, but the labor force participation rate has also been falling and keeping reported unemployment in check.

But it doesn’t matter anymore.

Employment is now going to be treated as a ‘rear view mirror’ issue and not ‘forward looking’

Same with losses to be reported by the financial sector.

Economics risks are now to the upside.

If housing doesn’t fall by another large chunk and further subtract from GDP, the Fed is left with an output gap not nearly large enough to forecast inflation coming back to target levels, without also including rate hikes in its internal forecasts (rate forecasts are not released). (The Fed’s long term inflation forecasts are necessarily at their target levels, as those forecasts include ‘appropriate monetary policy’ to hit those targets.)

Without a lot more weakness than current conditions indicate, markets will anticipate the Fed is unlikely to keep rates at current levels.

Meanwhile, current levels of demand for crude are more than sufficient for the Saudis to continue as swing producer/price setter.

And the foreign sector is still in the process of reducing their rate of accumulation of USD financial assets as evidenced by the falling trade gap, falling USD, and rising US exports.

2008-04-02 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Feb)

Survey -0.8%
Actual -1.3%
Prior -2.5%
Revised -2.3%

2008-04-02 Factory Orders YoY

Factory Orders YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.0%
Prior 7.9%
Revised n/a

Pretty good up trend in progress here.

Share

2008-03-05 US Economic Releases

Posted on by

2008-03-05 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior -19.2%
Revised n/a

Refi’s bouncing back some.

2008-03-05 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 363.1
Prior 358.1
Revised n/a

This seems to be drifting lower with time.

Might be loss of market share to banks.

2008-03-05 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 2569.0
Prior 2458.9
Revised n/a

As above.

2008-03-05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.2%
Prior 19.1%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t show weakness in the labor markets other numbers show.

Doesn’t get much attention.

2008-03-05 APD Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Feb)

Survey 18K
Actual -23K
Prior 130K
Revised 119K

Drifting lower over time.  May indicate payrolls are going to be in the 25,000 range.  On Friday the January number could be revised up and a low number reported for February.  This happened with the February report – December revised up quite a bit and January reported down.

2008-03-05 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (4Q F)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

Seems to go with GDP.

2008-03-05 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

These are now moving up to more nearly match import prices, which functionally are unit labor costs as well as we’ve outsourced labor intensive content.

The Fed watches this closely as when it moves up the inflation cat is out of the bag.

2008-03-05 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Jan)

Survey -2.5%
Actual -2.5%
Prior 2.3%
Revised 2.0%

As expected,  seems to be in a range.

2008-03-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Feb)

Survey 47.3
Actual 49.3
Prior 44.6
Revised n/a

Low, but a bounce from last month, as I expected then.  Weak but not recession levels, and prices still too firm for comfort.

Share

2008-02-04 US Economic Releases

Posted on by

small-2008-02-04-challenger-job-cuts-total.gif

Challenger Job Cuts Total (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 74,986
Prior 44,416
Revised n/a

A volatile number that has been showing low levels of layoffs and not given much weight either way.

2008-02-04 Factory Orders Total

Factory Orders (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 441,566
Prior 431,489
Revised n/a

Another strong number – no sign of recession here.

♥

Share

2008-01-03 US Economic Releases

Posted on by

2008-01-03 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 28)

Survey n/a
Actual -11/6%
Prior -7.6%
Revised n/a

Last December number – purchase applications normally shoot back up in January.

2008-01-03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.7%
Prior -4.7%
Revised n/a

Graph looks OK.

2008-01-03 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Dec)

Survey 33K
Actual 40K
Prior 189K
Revised 173K

A touch better than expected, trending down some, but fed thinks there are fewer people left to hire. This is a real number as ADP reports the actual number of people on its payroll system.

2008-01-03 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims

Survey 345K
Actual 336K
Prior 349K
Revised 357K

This kind of drop means there is no weakness indicated here.

2008-01-03 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Dec 22)

2008-01-03 Continuing Claims from 1980

Continuing Claims since 1980

Survey 2675K
Actual 2761K
Prior 2713K
Revised 2715K

Up some, but the long term graph looks fine.

2008-01-03 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Nov)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.7%

No weakness here.

2008-01-03 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey 16.0M
Actual 16.3M
Prior 16.2M
Revised n/a

Still on the soft side, but no disaster.

2008-01-03 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey 12.2M
Actual 12.5M
Prior 12.4M
Revised n/a

As above.

♥

Share

2007-12-05 US Economic Releases

Posted on by

 

2007-12-05 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 25.5%
Prior -4.3%
Revised -5.2%

Mortgage banking purchase index is holding above 400 since April, and up nicely year over year. The ‘multiple application’ story is getting old.

2007-12-05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.7%
Prior -8.8%
Revised n/a

Modest improvement- doesn’t look like a recession has started.

2007-12-05 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Nov)

Survey 50K
Actual 189K
Prior 106K
Revised 119K

No weakness here- prelude to Friday’s employment number.

2007-12-05 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (3QF)

Survey 5.9%
Actual 6.3%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

More real output from the same amount of labor input, further questions the deflator for Q3.

2007-12-05 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (3QF)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -2.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

As above, the q3 deflator looked suspiciously low.

This should adjust with q4 numbers.

2007-12-05 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Oct)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.3%

Boring, and not worse than Fed forecasts.

2007-12-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing

ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov)

Survey 55.0
Actual 54.1
Prior 55.8
Revised n/a

It’s been drifting lower with falling budget deficit, but exports propping up gdp.

Probably not any worse than Fed forecasts.

♥

Share