All seems to be rolling over:

This source of growth may be decelerating as well?

Another indicator turning south, and this is a big one, as it’s the source of most consumer income:

Familiar pattern?

As if rate cuts would help output, employment, or earnings, all of which are decelerating:

Dow rises 100 points and heads for record close amid expectations for the Fed to lower rates

He’s the dummy, of course, along with the all the others, including all of the Presidential contenders, who don’t understand that imports are real economic benefits, and exports are real economic costs, and that unemployment and weak demand are unspent income stories, etc. etc. So with that kind of consensus there’s no telling what might happen…

Been working its way lower and into contraction ever since the collapse in oil capital expenditures late in 2015, like a slow motion train wreck:

There’s been a history of getting a spike up before the collapse:

Companies are warning that earnings results are going to be brutal

KEY POINTS
With earnings season looming, 77% of companies issuing pre-announcements say their profit picture will be worse than Wall Street is expecting.
That’s the second-worst quarter on record going back to 2006, according to FactSet.
Two tariff-sensitive sectors, tech and health care, have seen the highest amounts of negative announcements.

Stocks may have brushed up against record highs Monday. However, a looming threat is just a couple weeks away once profit reports from the second quarter hit.

Analysts have been taking a dimmer view of what is ahead for earnings. They’ve already forecast a decline for the first three quarters of 2019. Now companies are echoing those concerns with a level of pessimism not often seen from corporate America.

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Bad:

Highlights

In the first sub-50 reading in 2-1/2 years, the Chicago PMI fell more than 4 points in June to miss Econoday’s low-end expectations. Deterioration in June was wide with only employment showing improvement. But further gains for employment in this sample are in question given contraction in new orders and a second straight month of contraction for backlog orders. In contrast to the general weakness, input prices are rising with some members of the sample blaming tariffs for the pressure.

Looks to me like, with a lag, personal income has resumed it’s decline after a partial recovery, along with most other indicators, this time due to tariffs:

Note: The President may be entirely focused on the money he’s collecting from the tariffs and reluctant to give it up.

Most all euro area indicators still in collapse due to tariffs:

Production held up even as consumer spending slowed:

Highlights

The outcome was expected but not the mix. The third estimate of first-quarter GDP rose 3.1 percent and is unchanged from the second estimate. But consumer spending did not live up to expectations, at only a 0.9 percent growth rate in the quarter vs 1.3 percent in the prior estimate and expectations for 1.3 percent.

Making up the difference is an upgrade to nonresidential fixed investment, now at a 4.4 percent growth rate vs 2.3 percent in the second estimate, and also an upgrade to residential investment which is now at 2.0 percent contraction vs the second estimate’s 3.5 percent contraction. Government purchases are also upgraded, by 3 tenths to plus 2.8 percent.

Stepping back and looking at the quarter as a whole, inventory growth (contributing 0.55 percentage points to the 3.1 percent overall rate) and especially net exports (contributing 0.94 points) skewed the quarter higher. Sharp inventory growth made up for thin levels in prior quarters but with inventories still rising so far in the second quarter raise the question, given the slowing in consumer spending, whether inventories will begin to slow and pull down GDP. Net exports so far in the second quarter are clearly negative as imports are widening vs exports. Excluding both inventories and net exports, GDP on this basis (final sales to domestic purchasers) rose only 1.6 percent in the first quarter for a 5 tenths decline from the fourth quarter.

It’s been a weak recovery for the consumer, and now it’s fading:

Corporate profits had ‘one time’ increase from the 2018 tax cuts, but have subsequently gotten hurt by Agent Orange’s tariffs: