Fed Speak: Yellen the Dove


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There have been a lot of Fed speakers; so, I’ve selected a few comments on Yellen’s speech, as she has been deemed the most dovish Fed bank president.

Note the shift in rhetoric from ‘market functioning’ to inflation.

Of course, the FOMC’s idea of getting tough and fighting inflation has been to only cut 25 basis points.

Data dependent, this seems to be changing.

It could be the signs of passthrough from headline to core CPI or signs inflation expectations are elevating (as per their recent comments).

They also seem to have lost confidence in their inflation forecasts and may not be giving their future inflation indicators the same weight as in the past 6 months.

Fed’s Yellen: Funds rate been cut enough for now

by Ros Krasny

(Reuters) – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that the federal funds rate has been lowered far enough for now after months of aggressive central bank rate cuts.

The Fed’s key monetary policy tool ‘has come way down,’ Yellen said while critiquing presentations on the economy at a symposium for college students organized by the San Francisco Fed and the Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference.

Yellen said the Fed continues to grapple with difficult policy choices but restated that high inflation was a worry. ‘The 1970s were a horrible period. If there’s one thing that has to be very high priority, we don’t want to go back to a period that is anything like that,’ she said.


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2008-05-14 US Economic Releases


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2008-05-14 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH (May 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 378.5
Prior 381.3
Revised n/a

Not bad. Still supports the notion that housing bottomed in Q4.

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2008-05-14 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 2422.1
Prior 2273.8
Revised n/a

Refi market alive and well.

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2008-05-14 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 22.73
Prior 14.54
Revised n/a

Speaks for itself.

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2008-05-14 Consumer Price Index MoM

Consumer Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 Consumer Price Index YoY

Consumer Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey 4.0%
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Apr)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 CPI Core Index SA

CPI Core Index SA (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 214.398
Prior 214.176
Revised n/a

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2008-05-14 Consumer Price Index NSA

Consumer Price Index NSA (Apr)

Survey 214.715
Actual 214.823
Prior 214.528
Revised n/a

It’s all being said on CNBC – seasonals that subtract this month add later in the year.


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