Tag Archives: Wholesale Inventories

2009-05-08 USER

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Karim writes:

  • NFP -539k; net revisions -66k, and +60k contribution from census workers (census workers will add about 75k jobs/mth thru year-end)
  • Underlying trend doesn’t show any real change
  • Index of aggregate hours down another 0.6% and avg weekly earnings up 0.1%
  • Wage and salary component of personal income will be down again (hours x jobs x wages)
  • Unemployment rate up from 8.54% to 8.87%; total unemployment rate up from 15.6% to 15.8%
  • Only good news was diffusion index rising from 20.3 to 28.2
  • Consensus on CNBC was this would be the ‘last, really bad number’, mostly on grounds of running out of people to fire.
  • I guess ‘really bad’ wasn’t ‘really defined’, but judging by the workweek data, doesn’t seem like material improvement anytime soon.

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)

Survey -600K
Actual -539K
Prior -663K
Revised -699K

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -5240.00
Prior -4861.00
Revised n/a

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Apr)

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Unemployment Rate (Apr)

Survey 8.9%
Actual 8.9%
Prior 8.5%
Revised n/a

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Apr)

Survey -155K
Actual -149K
Prior -161K
Revised -167K

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.7%
Prior -10.0%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Apr)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 3 (Apr)

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Average Weekly Hours (Apr)

Survey 33.2
Actual 33.2
Prior 33.2
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.6%
Prior -1.5%
Revised -1.7%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.5%
Prior -1.9%
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Mar)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Mar)


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2009-03-10 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Mar 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.9%
Prior -0.8%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Mar 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.2%
Prior -0.6%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Mar 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.4%
Prior -1.9%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Mar 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Mar 10)

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -0.7%
Prior -1.4%
Revised -1.5%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.0%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Jan)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Jan)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Mar)

Survey 43.0
Actual 45.3
Prior 44.6
Revised n/a


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2009-02-10 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.80%
Prior -2.50%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.00%
Prior 1.60%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.70%
Prior -2.70%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.70%
Prior -2.70%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 10)

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Dec)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.4%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.9%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.3%
Prior 7.9%
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Dec)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Dec)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Feb)

Survey 44.0
Actual 44.6
Prior 45.4
Revised n/a


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2009-01-09 USER

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)

Survey -525K
Actual -524K
Prior -533K
Revised -584K

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -2589K
Prior -2024K
Revised n/a

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Dec)

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Unemployment Rate (Dec)

Survey 7.0%
Actual 7.2%
Prior 6.7%
Revised 6.8%

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Dec)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Dec)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Dec)

Survey -100K
Actual -149K
Prior -85K
Revised -104K

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.9%
Prior -4.6%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Dec)

Survey 3.6%
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.7%
Revised 3.8%

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Dec)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Dec)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 3 (Dec)

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Average Weekly Hours (Dec)

Survey 33.5
Actual 33.3
Prior 33.5
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Nov)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.2%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.3%
Prior 7.9%
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Nov)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Nov)


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2008-12-10 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 5)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.1%
Prior 112.1%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Dec 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 298.10
Prior 361.10
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Dec 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 3767.30
Prior 3802.80
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Oct)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -0.1%
Revised -0.4%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.0%
Prior 9.3%
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Oct)


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2008-11-07 USER

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

Survey -200K
Actual -240K
Prior -159K
Revised -284K

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -1078.00
Prior -698.00
Revised n/a

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Oct)

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Unemployment Rate (Oct)

Survey 6.3%
Actual 6.5%
Prior 6.1%
Revised n/a

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Oct)

Survey -65K
Actual -90K
Prior -51K
Revised -56K

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.8%
Prior -3.2%
Revised n/a

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Manufacturing Payrolls ALLX (Oct)

 
Karim writes:

Payrolls:

Worse than expected (but that was expected)

  • -240k; unemployment rate rises from 6.1% to 6.5%

  • Net revisions -179k (Sep revised from -159k to -284k)

  • Hours continue to shrink -0.3% m/m and -2.6% annualized over past 3mths

  • Avg hourly earnings 0.2%

  • Avg duration of unemployment jumps from 18.4weeks to 19.7

  • Diffusion index falls from 38.1 to 37.6

By industry:

  • Mfg -90k

  • Construction -49k

  • Retail -38k

  • Finance -24k

  • Temp -34k

  • Education 21k

  • Govt 23k

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Oct)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 3.5%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Average Weekly Hours (Oct)

Survey 33.6
Actual 33.6
Prior 33.6
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.3%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 0.6%

 
Falling?

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 9.7%
Prior 10.9%
Revised n/a

 
Past the peak?

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Sep)

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Pending Home Sales (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 89.2
Prior 93.5
Revised n/a

 
Still a mini trend higher.

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Sep)

Survey -3.4%
Actual -4.6%
Prior 7.4%
Revised 7.5%

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.7%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

 
Not bad! probably lots of foreclosure sales.


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2008-10-09 USER

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Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 4)

Survey 475K
Actual 478K
Prior 497K
Revised 498K

 
Still around 450,000 adjusted for storms.

Need another week or so to normalize.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 27)

Survey 3608K
Actual 3659K
Prior 3591K
Revised 3603K

 
Still rising.

No one seems to know how much the extended benefits added.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Oct 4)

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 1.4%
Revised 1.5%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 11.1%
Prior 10.8%
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Aug)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Aug)


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2008-09-09 USER

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Stores Sales YoY (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

 
Muddling through, well off the bottom, and not at recession levels.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep. 9)

 
Pretty much the same, muddling through and far from recession levels.

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Pending Home Sales (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 86.5
Prior 89.4
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Jul)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -3.2%
Prior 5.3%
Revised 5.8%

 
A bit lower but last month’s gain revised even higher.

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.5%
Prior -11.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still negative but looks to be surfacing rapidly.

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.4%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 10.6%
Prior 9.3%
Revised n/a

 
Inventories up but within normal fluctuations.

The question is causation- weak sales and unwanted inventories or building inventories for increasing demand

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Jul)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Sep)

Survey 44.0
Actual 45.8
Prior 42.8
Revised n/a

 


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2008-08-08 US Economic Releases

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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (2Q P)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

GDP gains are coming from productivity as hours worked decline.

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 1 (2Q P)

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 2 (2Q P)

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (2Q P)

Survey 1.4%
Actual 1.3%
Prior 2.2%
Revised 2.5%

Better than expected due to productivity increases.

If the USD stays strong, it could help import prices moderate as well.

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Unit Labor Costs ALLX (2Q P)

Karim writes:

Productivity based on hours, not employment; so we should see productivity in q2 of about 3.5% vs gdp of 1.9%.

Right, makes sense. More output from fewer workers and fewer hours is keeping GDP positive (and that much demand, which includes demand for exports, is supporting prices) even as labor markets soften.

Same as in prior 2 qtrs as hours were cut more aggressively than employment>Q4 gdp was -0.2% and productivity was +0.9%: Q1 GDP of 0.9% and productivity of 2.4%

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 0.9%

Higher than expected. Might mean upward Q2 GDP revision.

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 9.5%
Prior 8.8%
Revised n/a

With all the talk of weakness, increased inventories are most likely due to increased order flow.

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Jun)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Jun)


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2008-07-08 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Jul 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

Holding up with the rebate checks.

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Redbook Sales YoY (Jul 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.9%
Prior 2.9%%
Revised n/a

Rebate checks doing their thing.

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Pending Home Sales MoM (May)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -4.7%
Prior 6.3%
Revised 7.1%

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Pending Home Sales YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.6%
Prior -13.0%
Revised n/a

Still looks like they may be moving back up to me.

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (May)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 1.4%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.7%
Prior 8.1%
Revised n/a

Moving up some but not problematic yet.

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Consumer Credit (May)

Survey $7.5B
Actual $7.8B
Prior $8.9B
Revised $7.8B

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jul 6)

Survey -43
Actual -41
Prior -43
Revised n/a

Still low but higher than expected and moving up with the rebates.


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