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Karim writes:
- NFP -539k; net revisions -66k, and +60k contribution from census workers (census workers will add about 75k jobs/mth thru year-end)
- Underlying trend doesn’t show any real change
- Index of aggregate hours down another 0.6% and avg weekly earnings up 0.1%
- Wage and salary component of personal income will be down again (hours x jobs x wages)
- Unemployment rate up from 8.54% to 8.87%; total unemployment rate up from 15.6% to 15.8%
- Only good news was diffusion index rising from 20.3 to 28.2
- Consensus on CNBC was this would be the ‘last, really bad number’, mostly on grounds of running out of people to fire.
- I guess ‘really bad’ wasn’t ‘really defined’, but judging by the workweek data, doesn’t seem like material improvement anytime soon.



Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
Survey |
-600K |
Actual |
-539K |
Prior |
-663K |
Revised |
-699K |
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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Apr)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-5240.00 |
Prior |
-4861.00 |
Revised |
n/a |
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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Apr)
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Unemployment Rate (Apr)
Survey |
8.9% |
Actual |
8.9% |
Prior |
8.5% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Apr)
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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Apr)
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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Apr)
Survey |
-155K |
Actual |
-149K |
Prior |
-161K |
Revised |
-167K |
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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Apr)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-10.7% |
Prior |
-10.0% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Apr)
Survey |
0.2% |
Actual |
0.1% |
Prior |
0.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Apr)
Survey |
3.3% |
Actual |
3.2% |
Prior |
3.4% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Apr)
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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Apr)
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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 3 (Apr)
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Average Weekly Hours (Apr)
Survey |
33.2 |
Actual |
33.2 |
Prior |
33.2 |
Revised |
n/a |
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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Mar)
Survey |
-1.0% |
Actual |
-1.6% |
Prior |
-1.5% |
Revised |
-1.7% |
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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Mar)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-3.5% |
Prior |
-1.9% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Mar)
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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Mar)
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