Personal Income YoY (Jan)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 4.9 |
| Prior | 5.6 |
| Revised | n/a |
Falling off some. Interest rates are partially responsible, as last I checked households are still net savers and have net interest income.
This is one reason I lean towards the view that lower interest rates tend to slow nominal growth, while higher interest rates support nominal growth.
Personal Expenditures Nominal$ YoY (Jan)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 5.5% |
| Prior | 5.8% |
| Revised | n/a |
Nominal spending holding up. With our ‘new’ export economy, real spending gives way to exports, and GDP muddles through.
Personal Expenditures Chain YoY (Jan)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 1.8% |
| Prior | 2.1% |
| Revised | n/a |
Personal Expenditure Price YoY (Jan)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 3.7% |
| Prior | 3.6% |
| Revised | n/a |
This is problematic for the Fed.
Personal Expenditure Core YoY (Jan)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 2.2% |
| Prior | 2.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
This is not easy for the Fed to watch, as they worked long and hard to bring it below 2% and back to their comfort zone of 1-2%. Now the concern is how hard it will be to bring down from even higher expected levels if they keep cutting rates.
Personal Consumption Market Based YoY (Jan)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 3.7% |
| Prior | 3.6% |
| Revised | n/a |
As above, this is way too high for comfort.
Personal Consumption Market Based Core YoY (Jan)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 1.9% |
| Prior | 2.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
Also as above. Ok, but threatening to move higher and be very costly to bring back down.
PCE Core YoY (Jan)
| Survey | 2.2% |
| Actual | 2.2% |
| Prior | 2.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
As above.
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Feb)
| Survey | 49.5 |
| Actual | 44.5 |
| Prior | 51.5 |
| Revised | n/a |
Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE
Definitely not good, but like ISM, a survey that gets subjective responses, and price components remain high.
New orders up as well.
U. of Michigan Confidence (Feb F)
| Survey | 70.0 |
| Actual | 70.8 |
| Prior | 69.6 |
| Revised | n/a |
U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE
While better than expected, does not look good.
And one year inflation expectations are up to 3.6%.
NAPM-Milwaukee (Feb)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 53.0 |
| Prior | 58.0 |
| Revised | n/a |
Below expectations, but positive. Probably won’t get reported anywhere else..