Summary:Nothing particularly alarming regarding balance of risks.Personal income and spending lower than expected. Questions are whether exports will continue pick up and support gdp, and whether this is weaker than the Fed’s Oct 31 projection. Deflator and core pce also up a touch, and year over year deflator heading north. As Karim indicated, core is inside the Fed’s ‘comfort zone’ but moving slightly towards the upper bound.Chicago PMI up, prices paid up 74.7 to 76.2Milwaukee pmi down, prices paid up to 61 from 56Lots of month end ‘evening up’ in the markets that might be reversed Monday. Month end effects should be over by Tuesday.
Personal Income (Oct)
| Survey | 0.4% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | 0.4% |
| Revised | n/a |
Personal Spending (Oct)
| Survey | 0.3% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | 0.3% |
| Revised | n/a |
PCE Deflator YoY(Oct)
| Survey | 2.8% |
| Actual | 2.9% |
| Prior | 2.4% |
| Revised | n/a |
PCE Core MoM (Oct)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | 0.2% |
| Prior | 0.2% |
| Revised | n/a |
PCE Core YoY (Oct)
| Survey | 1.8% |
| Actual | 1.9% |
| Prior | 1.8% |
| Revised | 1.9% |
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Nov)
| Survey | 50.5 |
| Actual | 52.9 |
| Prior | 49.7 |
| Revised | n/a |
Construction Spending MoM (Oct)
| Survey | -0.3% |
| Actual | -0.8% |
| Prior | 0.3% |
| Revised | 0.2% |
NAPM-Milwaukee(Oct)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 60.0 |
| Prior | 63.0 |
| Revised | n/a |
Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Index SA
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