2009-01-30 USER

Posted on January 30, 2009 @ 8:42 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

[Skip to the end]

GDP QoQ Annualized (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP YoY Annualized Real (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP Price Index (Released 8:30 EST)
Core PCE QoQ (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP ALLX 1 (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP ALLX 2 (Released 8:30 EST)
Personal Consumption (Released 8:30 EST)
Employment Cost Index (Released 8:30 EST)
Employment Cost Index ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)
RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Released 9:00 EST)
RPX Composite 28dy Index (Released 9:00 EST)
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Released 9:45 EST)
NAPM Milwaukee (Released 10:00 EST)
U of Michigan Confidence (Released 10:00 EST)
U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Released 10:00 EST)

GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q A)

Survey	-5.5%
Actual	-3.8%
Prior	-0.5%
Revised	n/a

Karim writes:

Better than expected at -3.8% due to inventory build.

Here is the GDP math:

Private consumption (-2.5%) + Business Fixed Investment (-3.1%) + Government (+0.4%) + Net Exports (+0.1%) + Chg in Inventories (+1.3%)

Real final sales of -5.1% were consistent with estimates.

Business sector overestimated domestic demand, thereby accounting for the inventory build (should reverse in Q1).

Core PCE deflator slowed from 2.4% to 0.6%.

Within investment, both housing (-23.6%) and equipment/software (-27.8%) were very weak.

GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q A)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-0.2%
Prior	-0.7%
Revised	n/a

GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q A)

Survey	n/a
Actual	1.7%
Prior	3.3%
Revised	n/a

GDP Price Index (4Q)

Survey	0.4%
Actual	-0.1%
Prior	3.9%
Revised	n/a

Core PCE QoQ (4Q)

Survey	1.0%
Actual	0.6%
Prior	2.4%
Revised	n/a

GDP ALLX 1 (4Q)

GDP ALLX 2 (4Q)

Personal Consumption (4Q)

Survey	-3.5%
Actual	-3.5%
Prior	-3.8%
Revised	n/a

Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Survey	0.7%
Actual	0.5%
Prior	0.7%
Revised	n/a

Employment Cost Index ALLX (4Q)

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-21.59%
Prior	-20.14%
Revised	n/a

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	199.39
Prior	206.73
Revised	n/a

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)

Survey	34.9
Actual	33.3
Prior	34.1
Revised	35.1

NAPM Milwaukee (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	33.0
Prior	30.0
Revised	n/a

U of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey	61.9
Actual	61.2
Prior	61.9
Revised	n/a

U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Jan F)

2008-12-23 USER

Posted on December 23, 2008 @ 9:04 am (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

[Skip to the end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Released 7:45 EST)
ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Released 7:45 EST)
Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Released 8:55 EST)
Redbook Store Sales MoM (Released 8:55 EST)
ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Released 8:55 EST)
GDP QoQ Annualized (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP YoY Annualized Real (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP Price Index (Released 8:30 EST)
Core PCE QoQ (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP ALLX 1 (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP ALLX 2 (Released 8:30 EST)
Personal Consumption (Released 8:30 EST)
Univ of Michigan Confidence (Released 10:00 EST)
Univ of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Released 10:00 EST)
New Home Sales (Released 10:00 EST)
New Home Sales Total for Sale (Released 10:00 EST)
New Home Sales MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
New Home Sales YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
New Home Sales Median Price (Released 10:00 EST)
New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Released 10:00 EST)
New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Released 10:00 EST)
Existing Home Sales (Released 10:00 EST)
Existing Home Sales MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
Existing Home Sales YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
Existing Home Sales Inventory (Released 10:00 EST)
Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Released 10:00 EST)
Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Released 10:00 EST)
House Price Index MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
House Price Index YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
House Price Index ALLX (Released 10:00 EST)
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Released 10:00 EST)
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Released 10:00 EST)

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Dec 23)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-0.60%
Prior	-0.40%
Revised	n/a

Continues to slip.

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Dec 23)

Survey	n/a
Actual	2.60%
Prior	0.60%
Revised	n/a

Cheaper gasoline helping some?

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Dec 16)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-1.00%
Prior	-1.40%
Revised	n/a

Still slipping.

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Dec 16)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-0.70%
Prior	-0.70%
Revised	n/a

Still slipping.

No meaningul sign of cheaper gasoline helping here yet.

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Dec 16)

GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q F)

Survey	-0.5%
Actual	-0.5%
Prior	-0.5%
Revised	n/a

As expected.

GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q F)

Survey	n/a
Actual	0.70%
Prior	2.1%
Revised	n/a

Tiny positive for the year.

Next quarter looking negative.

GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q F)

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.3%
Prior	4.1%
Revised	n/a

This is heading to new lows as well.

GDP Price Index (3Q F)

Survey	4.25
Actual	3.9%
Prior	4.2%
Revised	n/a

Should reverse.

Core PCE QoQ (3Q F)

Survey	2.6%
Actual	2.4%
Prior	2.6%
Revised	n/a

Should reverse some.

GDP ALLX 1 (3Q F)

GDP ALLX 2 (3Q F)

Personal Consumption (3Q F)

Survey	-3.7%
Actual	-3.8%
Prior	-3.7%
Revised	n/a

Sudden fall from ‘muddling through’ to recession.

Univ of Michigan Confidence (Dec F)

Survey	58.8
Actual	60.1
Prior	59.1
Revised	n/a

Gasoline prices helping here.

Univ of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Dec F)

Back to where the Fed wants them to be.

New Home Sales (Nov)

Survey	415k
Actual	407k
Prior	433k
Revised	419k

A bit lower than expected and last month revised down some.

New Home Sales Total for Sale (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	374.00
Prior	402.00
Revised	n/a

Down to very low levels and one reason sales are low.

New Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-2.9%
Prior	-5.2%
Revised	n/a

New Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-35.3%
Prior	-42.0%
Revised	n/a

New Home Sales Median Price (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	220.40
Prior	214.60
Revised	n/a

Up, but still trending lower.

New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Nov)

New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Nov)

Existing Home Sales (Nov)

Survey	4.93M
Actual	4.49M
Prior	4.98M
Revised	4.91M

Large drop.

Existing Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey	-1.0%
Actual	-8.6%
Prior	-3.1%
Revised	-4.5%

Existing Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-1.6%
Prior	0.6%
Revised	n/a

Still well off the bottom.

Existing Home Sales Inventory (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	4.234
Prior	4.272
Revised	n/a

Falling some, but new foreclosures probably keeping this high.

Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Nov)

Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Nov)

House Price Index MoM (Oct)

Survey	-1.3%
Actual	-1.1%
Prior	-1.3%
Revised	-1.2%

Still falling.

House Price Index YoY (Oct)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-7.5%
Prior	-7.0%
Revised	n/a

No bottom in sight yet.

House Price Index ALLX (Nov)

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)

Survey	-40
Actual	-55
Prior	-38
Revised	n/a

Very weak.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Dec)