US credit default insurance

Posted on October 3, 2008 @ 12:29 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Just heard 10 year US credit default swaps are at 35 basis points.

The Fed needs to sell this in unlimited quantities and drive the price to near 0 to help restore and normalize liquidity.

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2008-09-22 Weekly Credit Graph Packet

Posted on September 22, 2008 @ 10:40 am (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

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As this goes down, the value of AIG (and probably Lehman) goes up.

IG On-the-Run Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG6 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG7 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG8 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG9 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)

IG On-the-Run Spreads (Sep 22)

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IG6 Spreads (Sep 22)

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IG7 Spreads (Sep 22)

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IG8 Spreads (Sep 22)

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IG9 Spreads (Sep 22)

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2008-09-08 Weekly Credit Graph Packet

Posted on September 8, 2008 @ 11:14 am (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

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Should resume narrowing from here.

IG On-the-run Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG6 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG7 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG8 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG9 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)

IG On-the-run Spreads (Aug 8)

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IG6 Spreads (Aug 8)

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IG7 Spreads (Aug 8)

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IG8 Spreads (Aug 8)

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IG9 Spreads (Aug 8)

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2008-09-01 Weekly Credit Graph Packet

Posted on September 8, 2008 @ 10:54 am (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

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Seems these spreads relate directly to the equity markets, which are simply that last step down in the capitalization.

I’ll be looking to see if the equity markets can rally much without these spreads tightening as well.

IG On-the-run Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG6 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG7 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG8 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)
IG9 Spreads (Released 5:02 EST)

IG On-the-run Spreads (Aug 1)

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IG6 Spreads (Aug 1)

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IG7 Spreads (Aug 1)

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IG8 Spreads (Aug 1)

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IG9 Spreads (Aug 1)

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2008-08-11 Weekly Credit Graph Packet

Posted on August 11, 2008 @ 2:52 pm (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

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IG On-the-run Spreads (Released 5:06 EST)
IG6 Spreads (Released 5:06 EST)
IG7 Spreads (Released 5:06 EST)
IG8 Spreads (Released 5:06 EST)
IG9 Spreads (Released 5:06 EST)

IG On-the-run Spreads (Aug 11)

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IG6 Spreads (Aug 11)

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IG7 Spreads (Aug 11)

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IG8 Spreads (Aug 11)

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IG9 Spreads (Aug 11)

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( Commercial Paper + C&I ) * Outstanding

Posted on July 23, 2008 @ 9:58 pm (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

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Summation of Commercial Paper Outstanding AND Combined Commercial and Industrial Loans Outstanding

Combined commercial and industrial loans and commercial paper show a leveling off after the initial drop.

Back in mid 2006, I remember commenting that I thought the government deficit was no longer high enough (given everything else that was going on) to support the credit structure.

The last push up was largely a product of fraudulently obtained sub prime and Alt-A loans.

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2008-07-21 Weekly Credit Graph Packet

Posted on July 21, 2008 @ 9:08 pm (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

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Looks and feels like spreads will be generally narrowing for a considerable period of time.

Bank earnings are better than expected with revenues growing nicely.

GDP, income, and spending being sustained by a growing government budget deficit, exports, and housing leveling off and no longer subtracting from growth.

‘Inflation’ continues with Saudi’s supporting prices and pass-throughs intensifying.