Tag Archives: Capacity Utilization

2009-04-15 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -11.0%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Apr 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 264.10
Prior 297.70
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Apr 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 6071.70
Prior 6813.50
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index MoM (Mar )

Survey 0.1%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

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CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index YoY (Mar)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Mar)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

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CPI Core Index SA (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 218.042
Prior 217.670
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (Mar)

Survey 212.900
Actual 212.709
Prior 212.193
Revised n/a

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Apr)

Survey -35.00
Actual -14.65
Prior -38.23
Revised n/a

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Net Long Term TIC Flows (Feb)

Survey $14.0B
Actual $22.0B
Prior -$43.0B
Revised -$36.8B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -$97.0B
Prior -$148.9B
Revised -$146.8B

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Industrial Production MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.9%
Actual -1.5%
Prior -1.4%
Revised -1.5%

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Industrial Production YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -12.8%
Prior -11.8%
Revised n/a

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Capacity Utilization (Mar)

Survey 69.6%
Actual 69.3%
Prior 70.9%
Revised 70.3%

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Mar)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Mar)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Mar)

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr)

Survey 10
Actual 14
Prior 9
Revised n/a

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 1 (Mar)

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 2 (Mar)


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2009-03-16 USER

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Mar)

Survey -30.80
Actual -38.23
Prior -34.65
Revised n/a

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Mar)

the

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Mar)

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Net Long Term TIC Flows (Jan)

Survey $45.0B
Actual -$43.0B
Prior $34.8B
Revised $34.7B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -$148.9B
Prior $74.0B
Revised $86.2B

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TIC ALLX (Jan)

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TIC TABLE 1 (Jan)

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TIC TABLE 2 (Jan)

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TIC TABLE 3 (Jan)

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Industrial Production MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.3%
Actual -1.4%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -1.9%

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Industrial Production YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -11.2%
Prior -10.1%
Revised n/a

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Capacity Utilization (Feb)

Survey 71%
Actual 70.9%
Prior 72.0%
Revised 71.9%

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Feb)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Feb)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Feb)

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)

Survey 9
Actual 9
Prior 9
Revised n/a

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 1 (Mar)

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NAHB Housing Market Index TABLE 2 (Mar)


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2009-02-18 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.00%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.90%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.40%
Prior -1.70%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.70%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 10)

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 45.7%
Prior -24.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 257.30
Prior 235.90
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 4472.90
Prior 2722.70
Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -4.2%
Revised -5.0%

 
Karim writes:

  • Import prices -1.1% m/m and -12.5% y/y; -0.8% m/m ex-petroleum; imports from China -0.7% m/m (-0.5% and -0.7% prior 2mths)

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    Import Price Index YoY (Jan)

    Survey -11.2%
    Actual -12.5%
    Prior -9.3%
    Revised -10.3%

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    Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Jan)

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    Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Jan)

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    Housing Starts (Jan)

    Survey 529K
    Actual 466K
    Prior 550K
    Revised 560K

     
    Karim writes:

    Housing starts and building permits fall to all-time lows.

    • Starts -16.8% m/m (all 4 regions down) and -56.2% y/y; 3rd consecutive double digit m/m decline

    • Permits -4.8% m/m (all 4 regions down)

    • When adding the supply of vacant homes (over 1mm) to starts, excess supply (relative to new household formation and obsolesence) still exists and in turn downward pressure on home prices

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    Building Permits (Jan)

    Survey 525K
    Actual 521K
    Prior 549K
    Revised 547K

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    Industrial Production MoM (Jan)

    Survey -1.5%
    Actual -1.8%
    Prior -2.0%
    Revised -2.4%

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    Industrial Production YoY (Jan)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -10.0%
    Prior -8.2%
    Revised n/a

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    Capacity Utilization (Jan)

    Survey 72.4%
    Actual 72.0%
    Prior 73.6%
    Revised 73.3%

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Jan)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Jan)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Jan)


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    2009-01-16 USER

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    Consumer Price Index MoM (Dec)

    Survey -0.9%
    Actual -0.7%
    Prior -1.7%
    Revised n/a

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    CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Dec)

    Survey 0.1%
    Actual 0.0%
    Prior 0.0%
    Revised n/a

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    Consumer Price Index YoY (Dec)

    Survey -0.2%
    Actual 0.1%
    Prior 1.1%
    Revised n/a

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    CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Dec)

    Survey 1.8%
    Actual 1.8%
    Prior 2.0%
    Revised n/a

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    CPI Core Index SA (Dec)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 216.816
    Prior 216.849
    Revised n/a

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    Consumer Price Index NSA (Dec)

    Survey 210.210
    Actual 210.228
    Prior 212.425
    Revised n/a

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    Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Dec)

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    Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Dec)

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    Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Dec)

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    Net Long Term TIC Flows (Nov)

    Survey $15.0B
    Actual -$21.7B
    Prior $1.5B
    Revised -$0.4B

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    Total Net TIC Flows (Nov)

    Survey n/a
    Actual $56.8B
    Prior $286.3B
    Revised $260.6B

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    Industrial Production MoM (Dec)

    Survey -1.0%
    Actual -2.0%
    Prior -0.6%
    Revised -1.3%

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    Industrial Production YoY (Dec)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -5.5%
    Prior -4.5%
    Revised n/a

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    Capacity Utilization (Dec)

    Survey 74.5%
    Actual 73.6%
    Prior 75.4%
    Revised 75.2%

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Dec)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Dec)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Dec)

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    U of Michigan Confidence (Jan P)

    Survey 59.0
    Actual 61.9
    Prior 60.1
    Revised n/a

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    U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Jan P )


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    2008-12-15 USER

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    Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Dec)

    Survey -28.00
    Actual -25.76
    Prior -25.43
    Revised n/a

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    Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Dec)

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    Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Dec)

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    Net Long Term TIC Flows (Oct)

    Survey $40.0B
    Actual $1.5B
    Prior $66.2B
    Revised $65.4B

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    Total Net TIC Flows (Oct)

    Survey n/a
    Actual $286.3B
    Prior $143.4B
    Revised $142.6B

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    TIC ALLX (Oct)

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    TIC TABLE 1 (Oct)

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    TIC TABLE 2 (Oct)

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    TIC TABLE 3 (Oct)

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    Industrial Production MoM (Nov)

    Survey -0.8%
    Actual -0.6%
    Prior 1.3%
    Revised 1.5%

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    Industrial Production YoY (Nov)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -5.5%
    Prior -4.5%
    Revised n/a

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    Capacity Utilization (Nov)

    Survey 75.6%
    Actual 75.4%
    Prior 76.4%
    Revised 76.0%

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Nov)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Nov)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Nov)


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    2008-11-17 USER

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    Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Nov)

    Survey -26.00
    Actual -25.43
    Prior -24.62
    Revised n/a

     
    Remains depressed.

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    Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Nov)

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    Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Nov)

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    Industrial Production MoM (Oct)

    Survey 0.2%
    Actual 1.3%
    Prior -2.8%
    Revised -3.7%

     
    Routine bounce back of a volatile series.

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    Industrial Production YoY (Oct)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -4.1%
    Prior -5.7%
    Revised n/a

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    Capacity Utilization (Oct)

    Survey 76.5%
    Actual 76.4%
    Prior 76.4%
    Revised 75.5%

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Oct)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Oct)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Oct)


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    2008-08-15 US Economic Releases

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    Empire Manufacturing (Aug)

    Survey -4.0
    Actual 2.8
    Prior -4.9
    Revised n/a

    Yet another series that could be making a comeback, albeit from very low levels.

    Even the work week went up.

    Prices paid still way high, and prices received high and moved higher.

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    Empire Manufacturing ALLX (Aug)

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    Net Long-term TIC Flows (Jun)

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    Total Net TIC Flows (Jun)

    Survey n/a
    Actual $51.1B
    Prior -$2.5B
    Revised $12.3B

    Should be slowing with trade flows reversing.

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    TIC ALLX (Jun)

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    TIC TABLE 1 (Jun)

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    TIC TABLE 2 (Jun)

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    TIC TABLE 3 (Jun)

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    Industrial Production MoM (Jul)

    Survey 0.0%
    Actual 0.2%
    Prior 0.5%
    Revised 0.4%

    A little better than expected.

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    Industrial Production YoY (Jul)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -0.1%
    Prior 0.2%
    Revised n/a

    Certainly not a collapse.

    Being helped by the relatively weak USD.

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    Capacity Utilization (Jul)

    Survey 79.8%
    Actual 79.9%
    Prior 79.9%
    Revised 79.8%

    No collapse here either.

    The Fed’s counting on slack to bring prices down.

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Jul)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Jul)

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    U of Michigan Confidence (Aug P)

    Survey 62.0
    Actual 61.7
    Prior 61.2
    Revised n/a

    This too looks like it has bottomed from very low levels.

    ‘Inflation’ still hurting confidence.


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    2008-05-15 US Economic Releases

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    2008-05-15 Initial Jobless Claims

    Initial Jobless Claims (May 10)

    Survey 370K
    Actual 371K
    Prior 365K
    Revised n/a

    Looks like it’s past the peak.

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    2008-05-15 Continuing Claims

    Continuing Claims (May 3)

    Survey 3035K
    Actual 3060K
    Prior 3020K
    Revised 3032K

    Looks like it’s not past the peak.

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    2008-05-15 Empire Manufacturing

    Empire Manufacturing (May)

    Survey 0.0
    Actual -3.2
    Prior 0.6
    Revised n/a

    Still off the bottom, needs another month to see where it’s going.

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    2008-05-15 Net Long-term TIC Flows

    Net Long-term TIC Flows (Mar)

    Survey $62.5B
    Actual $80.4B
    Prior $72.5B
    Revised $64.9B

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    2008-05-15 Total Net TIC Flows

    Total Net TIC Flows (Mar)

    Survey $67.5B
    Actual -$48.2B
    Prior $64.1B
    Revised $48.9B

    In general I expect these types of numbers to follow the trade gap down.

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    2008-05-15 Industrial Production

    Industrial Production (Apr)

    Survey -0.3%
    Actual -0.7%
    Prior 0.3%
    Revised 0.2%

    Still weak. Been weak for 50 years.

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    2008-05-15 Capacity Utilization

    Capacity Utilization (Apr)

    Survey 80.1%
    Actual 79.7%
    Prior 80.5%
    Revised 80.4%

    Weak, but not recession levels yet.

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    2008-05-15 Philadelphia Fed.

    Philadelphia Fed. (May)

    Survey -19.0
    Actual -15.6
    Prior -24.9
    Revised n/a

    2008-05-15 Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

    Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

    Perking up from low levels,
    prices high and moving higher

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    2008-05-15 NAHB Housing Market Index

    NAHB Housing Market Index (May)

    Survey 20
    Actual 19
    Prior 20
    Revised n/a

    Still off the lows and looking like a bottom to me.


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    2008-04-16 US Economic Releases

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    • MBA Mortgage Applications
    • Bloomberg Global Confidence
    • Consumer Price Index
    • Housing Starts
    • Building Permits
    • Industrial Production
    • Capacity Utilization

    2008-04-16 MBAVPRCH Index

    MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 11)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 381.6
    Prior 384.7
    Revised n/a

    Holding in its new, lower range.

    2008-04-16 MBAVREFI Index

    MBAVREFI Index (Apr 11)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 2866.0
    Prior 2724.7
    Revised n/a

    Doing ok in this prime time for resets, which are peaking and then falling off.

    2008-04-16 Bloomberg Global Confidence

    Bloomberg Global Confidence (Apr)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 14.54
    Prior 13.08
    Revised n/a

    Still down, but signs of a bottom.

    In my humble opinion, inflation is ripping, and the Fed’s in a very bad place. April’s food and energy price hikes, along with hosts of others, and the weaker USD all are pointing to an upward surge for prices on a forward looking basis.The Fed’s forecasting models should be showing higher inflation as well.And futures markets continue to be an unreliable forecasting tool for the Fed.

    2008-04-16 Consumer Price Index MoM

    Consumer Price Index MoM (Mar)

    Survey 0.3%
    Actual 0.3%
    Prior 0.0%
    Revised n/a

    2008-04-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

    CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)

    Survey 0.2%
    Actual 0.2%
    Prior 0.0%
    Revised n/a

    2008-04-16 Consumer Price Index YoY

    Consumer Price Index YoY (Mar)

    Survey 4.0%
    Actual 4.0%
    Prior 4.0%
    Revised n/a

    2008-04-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

    CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)

    Survey 2.4%
    Actual 2.4%
    Prior 2.3%
    Revised n/a

    From Karim:

    Headline/Core divergence->limited passthrough

    • Headline 0.343% and stays at 4% y/y

    • Core rises 0.152% (after 0.04% last month), showing limited pass-through from headline and even more limited pass-through from wholesale level (PPI from yday).

    • Core rises from 2.3% to 2.4%, equates to about 1.9-2.0% on core PCE basis due to measurement differences

    • Food up 0.2% and gas up 1.3%

    • OER up 0.2%, apparel down 1.3%, vehicles down 0.1%

    • Lodging away from home down 0.6% and medical up only 0.1%, a bit below trend

    Housing starts not looking good. The glimmer of hope is that prior months have been revised up for the last two reports, so there’s a chance this number could be revised substantially as well.

    2008-04-16 Housing Starts

    Housing Starts (Mar)

    Survey 1010K
    Actual 947K
    Prior 1065K
    Revised 1075K

    2008-04-16 Building Permits

    Building Permits (Mar)

    Survey 970K
    Actual 927K
    Prior 978K
    Revised 984K

    From Karim:

    Housing data shows drag continuing with at least the same intensity

    • Starts down 11.9%, boding poorly for current GDP

    • Permits down 5.8%, boding poorly for future GDP

    • Best news is not adding to inventories

    2008-04-16 Industrial Production

    Industrial Production (Mar)

    Survey -0.1%
    Actual 0.3%
    Prior -0.5%
    Revised -0.7%

    May be due to exports, which are keeping GDP and employment muddling through

    2008-04-16 Capacity Utilization

    Capacity Utilization (Mar)

    Survey 80.3%
    Actual 80.5%
    Prior 80.9%
    Revised 80.3%

    Staying too high for the typical recession.

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