- MBA Mortgage Applications
- Bloomberg Global Confidence
- Consumer Price Index
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits
- Industrial Production
- Capacity Utilization
![2008-04-16 MBAVPRCH Index](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/04/2008-04-16-mbavprch-index-small.gif)
MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 11)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
381.6 |
Prior |
384.7 |
Revised |
n/a |
Holding in its new, lower range.
![2008-04-16 MBAVREFI Index](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/04/2008-04-16-mbavrefi-index-small.gif)
MBAVREFI Index (Apr 11)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
2866.0 |
Prior |
2724.7 |
Revised |
n/a |
Doing ok in this prime time for resets, which are peaking and then falling off.
![2008-04-16 Bloomberg Global Confidence](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/04/2008-04-16-bloomberg-global-confidence-small.gif)
Bloomberg Global Confidence (Apr)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
14.54 |
Prior |
13.08 |
Revised |
n/a |
Still down, but signs of a bottom.
In my humble opinion, inflation is ripping, and the Fed’s in a very bad place. April’s food and energy price hikes, along with hosts of others, and the weaker USD all are pointing to an upward surge for prices on a forward looking basis.The Fed’s forecasting models should be showing higher inflation as well.And futures markets continue to be an unreliable forecasting tool for the Fed.
![2008-04-16 Consumer Price Index MoM](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/04/2008-04-16-consumer-price-index-mom-small.gif)
Consumer Price Index MoM (Mar)
Survey |
0.3% |
Actual |
0.3% |
Prior |
0.0% |
Revised |
n/a |
![2008-04-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/04/2008-04-16-cpi-ex-food-energy-mom-small.gif)
CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Mar)
Survey |
0.2% |
Actual |
0.2% |
Prior |
0.0% |
Revised |
n/a |
![2008-04-16 Consumer Price Index YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/04/2008-04-16-consumer-price-index-yoy-small.gif)
Consumer Price Index YoY (Mar)
Survey |
4.0% |
Actual |
4.0% |
Prior |
4.0% |
Revised |
n/a |
![2008-04-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/04/2008-04-16-cpi-ex-food-energy-yoy-small.gif)
CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Mar)
Survey |
2.4% |
Actual |
2.4% |
Prior |
2.3% |
Revised |
n/a |
From Karim:
Headline/Core divergence->limited passthrough
- Headline 0.343% and stays at 4% y/y
- Core rises 0.152% (after 0.04% last month), showing limited pass-through from headline and even more limited pass-through from wholesale level (PPI from yday).
- Core rises from 2.3% to 2.4%, equates to about 1.9-2.0% on core PCE basis due to measurement differences
- Food up 0.2% and gas up 1.3%
- OER up 0.2%, apparel down 1.3%, vehicles down 0.1%
- Lodging away from home down 0.6% and medical up only 0.1%, a bit below trend
Housing starts not looking good. The glimmer of hope is that prior months have been revised up for the last two reports, so there’s a chance this number could be revised substantially as well.
![2008-04-16 Housing Starts](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/04/2008-04-16-housing-starts-small.gif)
Housing Starts (Mar)
Survey |
1010K |
Actual |
947K |
Prior |
1065K |
Revised |
1075K |
![2008-04-16 Building Permits](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/04/2008-04-16-building-permits-small.gif)
Building Permits (Mar)
Survey |
970K |
Actual |
927K |
Prior |
978K |
Revised |
984K |
From Karim:
Housing data shows drag continuing with at least the same intensity
- Starts down 11.9%, boding poorly for current GDP
- Permits down 5.8%, boding poorly for future GDP
- Best news is not adding to inventories
![2008-04-16 Industrial Production](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/04/2008-04-16-industrial-production-small.gif)
Industrial Production (Mar)
Survey |
-0.1% |
Actual |
0.3% |
Prior |
-0.5% |
Revised |
-0.7% |
May be due to exports, which are keeping GDP and employment muddling through
![2008-04-16 Capacity Utilization](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/04/2008-04-16-capacity-utilization-small.gif)
Capacity Utilization (Mar)
Survey |
80.3% |
Actual |
80.5% |
Prior |
80.9% |
Revised |
80.3% |
Staying too high for the typical recession.