Back from a week off

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Been away for a week.

First impressions:

Seems world fiscal responses both automatic and more recently proactive have turned the tide.

Looking for a quick return to positive GDP (from very depressed levels) helped by very low inventories in general.

But relatively slow returns to ‘normal’ in many sectors as well.

And central banks doing a lot of foot dragging regarding rate hikes due to large continuing output gaps (high unemployment).

The eurozone lags as it’s passed on proactive fiscal measures and instead is waiting for exports to pick up, and makes these kinds of counterproductive noises:

“The European Union (EU) has officially opened the excessive deficit procedure against Ireland, Greece, Spain and France since their budget deficits shot up beyond the EU’s limit amid the financial crisis.

The decisions, which were taken by EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday, required the four countries, as well as Britain, which had been under the excessive deficit procedure, to take corrective actions to rein in their deficits by Oct. 27, 2009.

Under the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact, all member states have to keep their budget deficits below 3 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP).”

Q1 Earnings generally better than expected.

This is all very good for US equities.

A few selected somewhat positive headlines from the past week with the most recent on top:

Malaysia Keeps Interest Rate Unchanged as Export Slump Eases
South Korean Current Account Rises, N.Z. Exports Gain
China’s Economy Recovering on Investment Surge, Citic Says
European Retail Sales Decline Least in 11 Months
European Confidence Rises for First Time in 11 Months
ECB’s Wellink Doesn’t See ‘Real Deflation’ in Europe
Tumpel-Gugerell Says ECB Sees No Deflation Risk, Badische Says
Germany’s Economy to Return to Growth Next Year
B0E spots hopeful economic signs
U.K. Has Biggest Budget Deficit Since World War II
U.K. Mortgage Lending Rose 16% in March, CML Says
Industrial Production Index Seen Up For 1st Time In 6 Months
Govt Submits Record Extra Budget For FY09 To Finance Fresh Stimuli
China’s External Demand Showing Signs of Recovery, Sun Says
China to launch more stimulus investment in second quarter
China Central Bank’s Yi Sees Signs of Economy Rebound
WB official: China a ‘bright spot’ in 2009 world economy


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2009-04-29 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr 24)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.1%
Prior 5.3%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Apr 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 251.60
Prior 253.00
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Apr 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 5108.20
Prior 6540.70
Revised n/a

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GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q A)

Survey -4.7%
Actual -6.1%
Prior -6.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (1Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.6%
Prior -0.8%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (1Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.5%
Prior 1.2%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (1Q)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 2.9%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (1Q)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

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Personal Consumption (1Q)

Survey 0.9%
Actual 2.2%
Prior -4.3%
Revised n/a

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FOMC Rate Decision (Apr 29)

Survey 0.25%
Actual 0.25%
Prior 0.25%
Revised n/a


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2009-04-28 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Apr 28)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.7%
Prior -0.1%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Apr 28)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.7%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Apr 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Apr 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.6%
Prior 1.5%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Apr 28)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Feb)

Survey 142.80
Actual 143.17
Prior 146.40
Revised 146.35

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Feb)

Survey -18.70%
Actual -18.63%
Prior -18.97%
Revised -19.00%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 139.14
Prior 150.00
Revised n/a

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.23%
Prior -16.55%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Confidence (Apr)

Survey 29.7
Actual 39.2
Prior 26.0
Revised 26.9

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr)

Survey -17
Actual -9
Prior -20
Revised n/a

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey ALLX (Apr)


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2009-04-24 USER

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Durable Goods Orders (Mar)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -0.8%
Prior 3.4%
Revised 2.1%

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -23.6%
Prior -29.7%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.6%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.2
Actual -0.6%
Prior 3.9%
Revised 2.0%

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Durable Goods ALLX (Mar)

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New Home Sales (Mar)

Survey 337K
Actual 356K
Prior 337K
Revised 358K

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 308.00
Prior 324.00
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.6%
Prior 4.7%
Revised 8.2%

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New Home Sales YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -30.6%
Prior -37.4%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 201.40
Prior 208.70
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Mar)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Mar)


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2009-04-23 USER

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Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 18)

Survey 640K
Actual 640K
Prior 610K
Revised 613K

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Continuing Claims (Apr 11)

Survey 6120K
Actual 6137K
Prior 6022K
Revised 6044K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 18)

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -22.27%
Prior -23.03%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 186.56
Prior 186.39
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales (Mar)

Survey 4.65M
Actual 4.57M
Prior 4.72M
Revised 4.71M

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Existing Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -3.0%
Prior 5.1%
Revised 4.9%

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Existing Home Sales YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.1%
Prior -4.8%
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales Inventory (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.737
Prior 3.798
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Mar)

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Mar)

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Existing Home Sales TABLE 1 (Mar)

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Existing Home Sales TABLE 2 (Mar)


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2009-04-22 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr 17)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior -11.0%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Apr 17)

Survey n/a
Actual 253.00
Prior 264.10
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Apr 17)

Survey n/a
Actual 6540.70
Prior 6071.70
Revised n/a

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House Price Index MoM (Feb)

Survey -0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 1.7%
Revised 1.0%

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House Price Index YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.3%
Prior -8.9%
Revised n/a

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House Price Index ALLX (Feb)


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Mosler named director

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Magna Entertainment Corp. announces appointments of Interim Chief Executive Officer and Independent Director

April 7 (Magna Enterntainment Group) — Magna Entertainment Corp. (“MEC” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: MECA – News; TSX: MEC.A – News) today announced that it has appointed Greg Rayburn as Interim Chief Executive Officer of the Company, subject to the approval of the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware. MEC and certain of its subsidiaries are currently subject to bankruptcy proceedings in the United States under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware. If approved, Mr. Rayburn will assume the customary responsibilities of the Chief Executive Officer including leading MEC’s Chapter 11 restructuring activities and overseeing the sale of MEC’s assets. He will report directly to MEC’s Board of Directors. The decision to appoint Mr. Rayburn followed an extensive executive search process led by MEC’s lead director, William Menear. Mr. Rayburn is currently a senior managing director and the practice leader of FTI Palladium Partners. He has more than 26 years of experience advising companies and boards of directors in several in-court and out-of-court restructurings and has previously served as CEO or CRO of other troubled companies, including WorldCom, aaiPharma and Muzak Holdings LLC. Frank Stronach, who has resigned his office as Chief Executive Officer of the Company effective immediately, will retain his position as Chairman of the Board of Directors.

In addition, the Board of Directors also appointed Warren Mosler to serve as an independent member of the Board of Directors. Mr. Mosler is the founder and principal of AVM, L.P., a broker/dealer that provides advanced financial services to large institutional accounts. Mr. Mosler is the President and founder of Mosler Automotive which manufactures the MT900 sports car in Riviera Beach, Florida. MEC’s Board of Directors is in the ongoing process of searching for additional, qualified independent directors to strengthen MEC’s Board.


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2009-04-21 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Apr 21)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.1%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Apr 21)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.4%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Apr 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Apr 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.5%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Apr 21)


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