As previously discussed, jobless claims are down largely because they are a lot harder to get:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-02/the-good-news-on-jobs-isn-t-all-that-good

And now they are going up a bit, though still very low historically:

Highlights

Jobless claims are holding at or near record lows, with initial claims up only 7,000 in the October 29 week and continuing claims down 14,000 in the October 22 week. The 4-week average for initial claims, now at 257,750, has trended for the last two months in the 255,000 area. Continuing claims have likewise been trending lower, at a new record low of 2.026 million. There are no special factors in today’s report where trends are pointing to strength in the labor market and suggest that employers are holding tightly onto their employees.

This is the new one that tends to overstate:

Highlights

Growth in the nation’s service sector accelerated sharply in October based on Markit Economics’ U.S. sample where the final composite score is 54.8, unchanged from mid-month and up sharply from September’s 52.3. Strength in consumer spending is what respondents reported as well as a rise in both input costs and selling prices. New orders are at an 11-month high as is business activity while year-ahead expectations are at their best level in a year-and-a-half. Backlogs are also piling up. This report points to a very solid fourth-quarter start for the bulk of the economy. Coming up next this morning will be ISM non-manufacturing which last month reported a very solid ending for the third-quarter.

This is the older, more respected series:

Highlights

Much of the ISM non-manufacturing report, at a composite of 54.8, is strong with employment, however, an exception, down 4.1 points from September to a 53.1 level that points to a slower pace of hiring in October. But new orders are very solid, at 57.7 but again now from September’s 60.6. Business activity is also at 57.7 but is also down from September. Backlog orders grew for a second month and export orders remained solid and costs for the sample are up in another positive indication on demand. Employment growth may be down, but this report, like the services PMI earlier this morning, is pointing to a solid fourth-quarter start for the bulk of the economy.

United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI index fell to 54.8 in October of 2016 from 57.1 in September and below market expectations of 56. Activity, new orders and employment grew at a sloer pace while prices increased for the seventh straight month.

As previously discussed, I expect the manufacturing sector to muddle through at its current, lower levels, as spending cuts shift to the service sector:

Highlights

Good news is hard to find in the September factory orders report which is best described as flat. New orders did rise, up a moderate 0.3 percent in the month, and the prior month’s gain is revised 2 tenths higher to 0.4 percent, but core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) are down a sharp 1.3 percent and total unfilled orders keep contracting, down 0.4 percent for a fourth straight decline. Maybe the best news is that manufacturers are keeping their inventories down, unchanged in the month and down relative to shipments, to 1.34 from 1.35. Monday’s advance indications on October from the ISM don’t point to much change for a factory sector that continues to be held down by generally weak global demand and by weak investment in new equipment.

The Fed is looking for ‘some improvement’ Let me know if you see any! ;)

Sideways at best as this prior source of growth is no longer contributing:

After just one day it’s come down a bunch:

United States ISM New York Index

The ISM NY Current Business Conditions Index fell to 49.2 in October 2016 from 49.6 in September. Volume of purchases continued to fall (44.3 from 47.1 the previous month) and current revenues went up at a slower pace (51.4 from 51.6). By contrast, employment returned to growth after falling to the lowest in eight years in September (50.6 from 33.9) and expected revenues grew further (60.3 from 56.7). The Six-Month Outlook fell for the second month in a row, coming in at 56.9 in October from 59.6 in September.

Weakening further ever since the collapse in oil capex:

speaks for itself:

Doesn’t look like ‘improvement’ the way I see it?

Looks like others are seeing it my way as well this time:

Sorry, but the economy’s growth spurt isn’t going to last

By Jeff Cox

Oct 28 (CNBC) — Excluding “transitory” effects, the actual growth rate would have been closer to the 1.5 percent rate of the past four quarters.

Still decelerating since the collapse of oil capex (and the presumed windfall for the consumer…):

This is a relatively new series. so don’t know if it means much:

Miles driven had been rising. Fuel efficiency is part of this decline but probably more to it:

From yesterday’s durable goods report. GDP is about shipments:

As per the chart, this series is not doing well:

A surge in soybean exports likely helped to shrink the trade deficit in the third quarter. As a result, economists expect that trade contributed a full percentage point to GDP growth in the third quarter after adding a mere 0.18 percentage point in the April-June quarter. There are concerns that the soybean-driven export growth spurt could reverse in the fourth quarter.

This should have been doing better by now, indicating that, in general, unspent income is still not being sufficiently offset by deficit spending, public or private:

Highlights

Flat is the takeaway from the September durable goods report where orders slipped 0.1 percent, a lower-than-expected result offset however by an upward revision to August which now stands at plus 0.3 percent. A 45 percent monthly downswing for defense aircraft is a special factor in the September data, offsetting a 13 percent rise in civilian aircraft and, for the transportation reading, a solid 1.2 percent gain in vehicle orders. Excluding transportation, orders inched 0.2 percent higher for a third straight gain.

Capital goods data are mixed. The good news is a 0.3 percent rise in core shipments (nondefense ex-aircraft) and an upward revision to August which is now unchanged. These results should give a boost to the business investment component of tomorrow’s third-quarter GDP report. But the bad news is the indication on future core shipments as orders fell a very steep 1.2 percent though an upward revision to August, now at plus 1.2 percent, is a partial offset.

A concern in the report is continuing contraction in unfilled orders, down 0.4 percent for a 4th straight decline. Factories have been drawing down unfilled orders to keep shipments going which rose 0.8 percent in the month which, however, follows two months of unchanged readings. Inventories rose 0.1 percent in the month, well under the rise in shipments to pull down the inventory-to-shipments ratio to 1.64 from two months at 1.65.

September’s data point to more of the same for the factory sector, a flat path reflecting weakness in global demand and specific weakness in business investment.

Past the point of no return? Indicates the recession started a while ago?

As suspected, there has been a lot more ‘slack’ in the ‘labor market’ than the mainstream has asserted: