Up 1% for the week, but down 11% vs same week last year.

Back to where we were some 20 years ago when the economy was bad and the population was a whole lot lower…

MBA Purchase Applications

Highlights
Low mortgage rates have yet to give much of a lift to purchase applications for home mortgages. The purchase index rose only 1.0 percent in the November 7 week and is down 11 percent from a year ago. The year-on-year rate is little changed from September when rates started to move lower. The refinancing index did move higher earlier but has been in retreat in recent weeks, down a sharp 11.0 percent from the prior week. The average rate for 30-year conforming mortgages ($417,000 or less) rose 2 basis points in the week to 4.19 percent.

Note the lack of recovery here:

Whoops, last month’s ‘acceleration’ revised away.

Again, with purchase mtgs down and cash buyers down, hard to see total sales rising. And prices down as well, continuing that troubling tendency…

Highlights

New home sales, at a 467,000 annual rate, managed to top August’s great surge but only after August was revised sharply lower, from 504,000 to 466,000. Still, September’s 467,000 rate is the best of the recovery, going back to July 2008 with August’s 466,000 right behind in second place.

Price concession may be a key factor behind the September and August gains, gains that have lifted sales from this year’s earlier run in low 400,000s. The median price plunged a monthly 9.7 percent to $259,000. The year-on -year rate is in the minus column, at minus 4.0 percent, for only the second time in the last two years. Before this month, the year-on-year price was trending upward in the high single digits.

Not much to get excited about here.

Sales are far below that of prior recoveries, and lower prices is a sign the ‘long cycle’ is over:

Existing Home Sales

Highlights
Existing home sales rose a solid 2.4 percent in September to a higher-than-expected annual rate of 5.17 million. Year-on-year, however, sales remain flat at minus 1.7 percent. Condo sales were the strongest in the month, up 5.2 percent to a 0.610 million rate though sales of single-family homes rose a solid 2.0 percent to a 4.56 million rate. Year-on-year, condo sales show no change with single-family homes at minus 1.9 percent.

The strength in sales moved supply off the market, to a total of 2.30 million homes and condos on the market vs 2.31 million in the prior week. Supply relative to sales fell to 5.3 months vs 5.5 months in August.

Home prices have been falling, which of course are a plus for sales, and are down 4.0 percent on the month to a median $209,700. Year-on-year, the median price is up 5.6 percent.

Note the highlighted changes in housing starts last year vs this year.

For the economy to grow as much this year as last year, all the pieces have to grow as much, and if any piece doesn’t grow as much, another has to grow that much more to make up for it.

Furthermore, single family is what’s declined, and as a single family unit costs more than a multi family unit, in $ terms it’s worse than this chart shows.

And so far I haven’t seen anything growing that much more than the drop in the rate of growth of housing

This is the home builders index which has been influencing forecaster’s optimism for housing. Note that it’s stalled well below levels of prior cycles, and that there are far fewer home builders this time around as well:

Housing Market Index

Highlights
The drop this month in interest rates isn’t driving up demand for housing, based on weekly mortgage bankers data for purchase applications and now on the housing market index from the nation’s home builders which is down 5 points to 54. The key in October’s report is the traffic component which is down a full 6 points to 41. Lack of traffic points to lack of interest including lack of interest from the important group of first-time home buyers. The report’s two other components are also down with present sales down 6 points to 57 and future sales down 3 points to 64.

All regions show declines in their composite scores especially the Midwest which is down 8 points to 53 and the West which is down 7 points to 54. The South, which is by far the largest region for new homes, continues to lead, at 59 for a 4 point dip in the month. The Northeast is by the smallest region for new homes and trails in this report at 40 for a 2 point dip.

New home builders can’t blame high interest rates or high unemployment for the weakness in their sector. Housing starts for September will be posted tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m. ET.

NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 54 in October

All three HMI components declined in October. The index gauging current sales conditions decreased six points to 57, while the index measuring expectations for future sales slipped three points to 64 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers dropped six points to 41.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast and Midwest remained flat at 41 and 59, respectively. The South rose two points to 58 and the West registered a one-point loss to 57.

Industrial Production keeps chugging along, reversing last month’s dip so the two month average is about the average annual growth rate: