Finally up a bit for the week!
But now down some 13% vs last year.

Construction, exports, factory orders, all in retreat, and energy investment now on the edge of collapse as oil prices fall.

Q3 already revised down some, with more likely. And odds continue to increase for a negative Q4.

All of which now seems likely to draw spending cuts/proactive deficit reduction from the new Congress?


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This is a decent jobs number, but a while back this ADP release switched from being a report of their payroll numbers to a forecast the BLS employment report, released on Friday. What they do is take their internal payroll numbers for the actual accounts they service and then use that information along with various surveys and other related data, including seasonal adjustments, to forecast Friday’s release. This is pretty much what the other professional forecasters do, which makes this report ‘just another forecast’ and not a ‘hard number’ report:

The ADP national employment report is computed from a subset of ADP records that represent approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 23 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. ADP contracted with Moody’s Analytics to compute a monthly report that would ultimately help to predict monthly nonfarm payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s employment situation. The ADP report only covers private (excluding government) payrolls.

ADP Employment Report

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