Looking like it will add some 10ths to GDP, depending on mulitples:
Budget watchdogs howl over deficit-ballooning deals
Measures tacked onto government spending bills this week will amount to $426 billion in lost revenue over the next decade
Through q2:
More bad news:
Rolling over:
Consensus Outlook
The consensus for November’s index of leading economic indicators is an increase of 0.1 percent in what would follow three straight declines. Reversals for manufacturing and slowing in the labor market have been negatives for this index.
Global trade collapse continues:
Looks like more of same- L shaped recovery since the financial crisis:
Still looking weak:
Yes, housing starts were up for the month, and somewhat higher than expected, but looking at the chart it sure looks to me like they’ve gone nearly flat with things like changes in the interest rate outlook causing some of the volatility. And on a population adjusted basis housing starts remain at about half of what they were in 2006:
The growth in industrial production in general has been diminishing over the last few cycles, and most recently headed south due to the tariffs, and remains in contraction year over year:
Total outstanding remains lower than it was 9 months ago:
Today’s trade agreement will do nothing to reverse the tariff induced deceleration well underway in the economy:
This is through Q3:
The global slow motion train wreck continues:
Japan:
Core machinery orders in Japan, which exclude those of ships and electrical equipment, declined 6.0 percent from a month earlier in October 2019, following a 2.9 percent fall in September and compared with market expectations of a 0.9 percent increase. It marked the longest period of month-on-month contraction since a similar stretch to January 2009, mainly due to lower demand for fabricated metal products (-44.3 percent), information & communication electronics equipment (-43.7 percent), ship building (-31.9 percent), iron & steel (-21.1 percent), business oriented machinery (-15.2 percent) and general-purpose and production machinery (-10.9 percent).
Mexico Industrial Output Falls the Most in 5 Months
Mexico’s industrial production fell 3 percent from a year earlier in October 2019, following a 1.8 percent decline in the previous month and above market forecasts of a 2.1 percent decrease. manufacturing production dropped 1.2 percent, after rising 0.8 percent in September; and construction output declined further (-9.3 percent compared to -8.3 percent).
May just be from the Thanksgiving holiday and reversed next week:
Still elevated vs before the election, but working its way down from the highs:
China Auto Sales Fall for 17th Straight Month
Vehicles sales in China dropped 3.6 percent from a year ago to 2.46 million units in November 2019, marking the 17th consecutive month of decline, as local governments accelerated changes to emission standards this year. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs), including plug-in hybrids, battery-only electric vehicles and those powered by hydrogen fuel cells, decreased for a fifth month in a row (-43.7 percent), after the government reduced incentives for purchases of such cars amid criticism that some firms have become overly reliant on the funds. China’s car sales fell last year for the first time since the 1990s due to slowing economic growth and ongoing trade tensions with the US.
Interesting as income tends to be the fundamental support for asset values:
Deeper into contraction:
German Industrial Output Falls Unexpectedly
Industrial production in Germany dropped by 1.7% mom in October 2019, missing market expectations of a 0.1% growth and following a 0.6% fall in September. This marked the steepest monthly decrease in industrial output since April, as production fell for capital goods (-4.4%), including tools, vehicles and machinery. Year-on-year, industrial output slumped 5.3%, the most in a decade. Manufacturing alone went down 5.7%.
AAR: November Rail Carloads down 7.5% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.4% YoY
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.
Rail traffic continues to struggle because U.S. manufacturing is soft, trade disputes and the uncertainty they entail are ongoing, and economic growth abroad isn’t what it could be.
…In November 2019, total U.S. rail carloads were down 7.5% and total intermodal originations were down 7.4% from November 2018 — making 10 straight monthly declines for both.
Still in a down draft with additional tariffs scheduled to kick in Dec 15. Decelerating employment growth translates into decelerating personal income growth, etc. etc. etc.
Similar pattern for wages- up some with tax cuts, down with tariffs:
Meanwhile seems the crowd is making a big deal over the larger than expected headline number of data that’s both volatile and subject to large revisions:
The 266,000 jobs added in November is an important number since it defies expectations, at least for one month, that the labor market is slowing down. The report was way better than the 187,000 jobs expected by economists.
The end of the GM strike helped inflate the number, with 41,300 jobs added in motor vehicles and parts, but the overall gain in payrolls was still about 100,000 better than expected by many economists. Manufacturing gained 54,000 overall.
“The bottom line is the labor market is cooking. It clearly says the Fed should not do anything more. The Fed can now sit back on the shelf, not have to worry about having to be pestered about lower rates,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies.
Wholesale inventories are too high and going the wrong direction as sales fail to keep pace and are now in contraction:
This recession could be worse than 08?
;)
