A bit of an uptick but still trending lower:
Sales going sideways on an inflation adjusted basis:
This sector seems to be doing ok:
Not keeping up with inflation so probably not causing it:
Lowest income earners (no college) have been catching up some, but also lagging inflation:
This component is going nowhere:
Still trying to catch up from the oil capex collapse of 2016 and covid collapse:
Not good:
This is an all time low as people scramble to get extra jobs to deal with higher prices,
like paying rent, for example:
Oil prices taking a breather with the announcements of releases from strategic petroleum reserves.
Price direction, however, is instead set by Saudi OSP premiums to benchmarks which were just raised for the 3rd month and this time to record highs.
This puts a relentless upward bias to prices until Saudi pricing changes, and will propel what’s call inflation as well. And the higher prices can also trigger a sharp recession:
Recovered to trend but only because this chart isn’t adjusted for inflation:
Nor does the narrative that consumers have gone crazy buying goods seem to be holding up:
Not a lot of growth here:
Post war slowdown continues:
Below the 2018 highs, but still growing from the covid dip:
Adjusted for inflation, the slope is downward:
Post was slump continues:
Mortgage applications and housing in general remains far weaker than it was when rates were far higher and the population was a lot lower as well:
Still slowly working its way back to the pre covid trend:
New rigs continue to come online, but it won’t interfere with Saudi/Russian price setting until sufficient production comes online to reduce Saudi sales. And right now sales are going up, indicating that demand for oil at the Saudi’s prices is increasing, as the Saudis set price and let their refiners buy all they want at their posted prices:
As previously discussed, Saudi OSP’s (official selling price spreads vs benchmarks) are now set above ‘fair value’ imparting a continuous upward pressure on prices. If this policy continues prices will continue to rise and seriously disrupt markets as happened in 2008:
Fading, and this series is not inflation adjusted:
Still high but falling fast:
Still at only .1% GDP growth for Q1:
