Not at all good.
Hopefully we get a burst of employment
MBA Purchase Applications
Author Archives: WARREN MOSLER
Kfw story from bill mitchell
The fiscal role of the KfW
By Bill Mitchell
Stats from the high seas
fyi, this is only for containers:
Stats from the high seas: Stormy weather ahead
By Allen Wastler
today’s charts
slow start to holiday sales
And 2 fewer shopping days…
Holiday Sales Sag Despite Blitz of Deals
(WSJ) — Estimated total spending over Thanksgiving weekend fell to $57.4 billion, down 2.7% from a year ago, according to the National Retail Federation. It said it still expects total holiday sales through year-end to rise by 3.9% from a year ago. The retail trade group said the number of people who went shopping over the four-day weekend that kicked off with Thanksgiving rose slightly to 141 million, up from 139 million last year. Store traffic on Black Friday rose just 3.4% to 92 million shoppers. Preliminary results from ShopperTrak suggested that sales on Thursday and Friday combined rose 2.3% from a year earlier to $12.3 billion. The firm has forecast that this holiday-shopping season will be the worst since 2009, with retail sales in November and December rising by 2.4% from a year earlier, less than last year’s 3% increase and below gains of around 4% in 2011 and 2010.
Watch “OECD NAIRU stupidity” on YouTube
New Economic Perspectives on the Government Budget, Deficits, and the National Debt – YouTube
Claims and labor force growth rate
Chicago pmi looking good, consumer confidence up
Go rust belt!
Maybe I’ll finally get a good price for the condos I bought in the early 80’s when I lived there…
Chicago PMI
Highlights
Monthly growth in composite activity in Chicago remains exceptionally strong, at 63.0 for this month’s reading vs an even stronger 65.9 in October. Strength is centered where it should be, in new orders which are at a robust 68.8. The prior reading, at 74.3, was a 9 year high. Production slowed in the month but remains very strong at 64.3 vs 71.1.
Employment is a special standout in today’s report, up 3.2 points to 60.9 which is the highest reading in more than 2 years. Inventories, at 61.1, show a sudden build as Chicago businesses prepare to fill orders. Backlog orders are growing strongly, deliveries are slowing, and price inputs are rising — all consistent with strong activity.
This report, which covers all areas of the Chicago economy, points to another month of solid growth for the coming ISM reports on manufacturing and non-manufacturing. The Dow is moving to opening highs following today’s report.
Consumer Sentiment
Market Consensus before announcement
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipped to 72.0 for the early November reading versus 73.2 for final October and versus 75.2 in the early October reading. The latest result was the 7th straight dip going through both early and final readings back to final July. The erosion continues to be centered in expectations which were at 62.3, down steadily from July’s peak at 76.5. Current conditions have also been coming down but less so, to 87.2 in the preliminary November reading versus a peak of 99.7 in early July.
Mortgage purchase applications down year over year again
No sign of life here yet. It’s now been down year over year for quite a while.
Multi family permits were reported up yesterday, which helps, but note multi family units are a lot cheaper than single family starts.
Durables/cap ex just released and looking soft as well.
The 4-week average of the purchase index is now down about 5% from a year ago.