Tag Archives: Factory Orders

2008-06-03 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-03 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (May)

Survey 14.6M
Actual 14.3M
Prior 14.4M
Revised n/a

Very weak, as was transportation in general, but more than made up for by other factory orders, see below.

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2008-06-03 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales (May)

Survey 10.8M
Actual 10.5M
Prior 10.6M
Revised n/a

As above, very weak.

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2008-06-03 Factory Orders YoY

Factory Orders YoY (Apr)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 1.4%
Revised 1.5%

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2008-06-04 Factory Orders Ex Transportation

Factory Orders Ex Transportation

Survey n/a
Actual 389154
Prior 378303
Revised n/a

Upside surprise, and non-transportation up very strong.

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2008-06-03 Factory Orders MoM

Factory Orders MoM (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.8%
Prior 4.2%
Revised 1.5%

More upside surprises.
No recession, and this was before the fiscal package kicked in.

With domestic demand not this strong, could be even larger increases in exports as foreigners continue to spend their now unwanted hoard of USD over here.

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2008-06-03 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 1)

Survey -51
Actual -45
Prior -51
Revised n/a

Even this indicator had an upside surprise.

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2008-05-02 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)

Survey -75K
Actual -20K
Prior -80K
Revised -81K

Upside surprise – staying above recession levels, and a lagging indicator.

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2008-05-02 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (Apr)

Survey 5.2%
Actual 5.0%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

Still trending higher, but not at recession levels, and a lagging indicator as well.

And still very near what the fed considers full employment, putting inflation expectations at risk of elevating for the mainstream.

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2008-05-02 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Apr)

Survey -35K
Actual -46K
Prior -48K
Revised n/a

Better than expected, not at recession levels.

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2008-05-02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

Lower than expected, indicating wages still well anchored, at least in this report.

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2008-05-02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Apr)

Survey 3.6%
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

Coming off some but still moving up at a reasonably pace.

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2008-05-02 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours (Apr)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.8
Revised n/a

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2008-05-02 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 1.4%
Prior -1.3%
Revised -0.9%

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2008-05-02 Factory Orders TABLE

Factory Orders TABLE

Upside suprise, same story – domestic weak, export sector strong.

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2008-04-02 US Economic Releases

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2008-04-02 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Mar 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 356.0
Prior 403.7
Revised n/a

Down this week, maybe a holiday issue. Looks looks like Q1 was in a lower range than Q4, but not all that bad.

Also, mortgage bankers have less capacity than previously, and banks are said to be gaining market share.

2008-04-02 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Mar 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 2636.0
Prior 4255.2
Revised n/a

Refi’s have been coming in spikes. Not sure why.

2008-04-02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 9.4%
Prior -14.2%
Revised n/a

This hasn’t been a reliable indicator but nonetheless seems to indicate a recession isn’t in the cards.

2008-04-02 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Survey -45K
Actual 8K
Prior -23K
Revised -18K

ADP flattish, and last month revised up a bit.

Friday’s payroll number could be much the same: last month revised up some, and current month a bit higher than expected.

The overall trend is to less job creation, but the labor force participation rate has also been falling and keeping reported unemployment in check.

But it doesn’t matter anymore.

Employment is now going to be treated as a ‘rear view mirror’ issue and not ‘forward looking’

Same with losses to be reported by the financial sector.

Economics risks are now to the upside.

If housing doesn’t fall by another large chunk and further subtract from GDP, the Fed is left with an output gap not nearly large enough to forecast inflation coming back to target levels, without also including rate hikes in its internal forecasts (rate forecasts are not released). (The Fed’s long term inflation forecasts are necessarily at their target levels, as those forecasts include ‘appropriate monetary policy’ to hit those targets.)

Without a lot more weakness than current conditions indicate, markets will anticipate the Fed is unlikely to keep rates at current levels.

Meanwhile, current levels of demand for crude are more than sufficient for the Saudis to continue as swing producer/price setter.

And the foreign sector is still in the process of reducing their rate of accumulation of USD financial assets as evidenced by the falling trade gap, falling USD, and rising US exports.

2008-04-02 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Feb)

Survey -0.8%
Actual -1.3%
Prior -2.5%
Revised -2.3%

2008-04-02 Factory Orders YoY

Factory Orders YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.0%
Prior 7.9%
Revised n/a

Pretty good up trend in progress here.

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2008-03-05 US Economic Releases

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2008-03-05 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior -19.2%
Revised n/a

Refi’s bouncing back some.

2008-03-05 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 363.1
Prior 358.1
Revised n/a

This seems to be drifting lower with time.

Might be loss of market share to banks.

2008-03-05 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 2569.0
Prior 2458.9
Revised n/a

As above.

2008-03-05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.2%
Prior 19.1%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t show weakness in the labor markets other numbers show.

Doesn’t get much attention.

2008-03-05 APD Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Feb)

Survey 18K
Actual -23K
Prior 130K
Revised 119K

Drifting lower over time.  May indicate payrolls are going to be in the 25,000 range.  On Friday the January number could be revised up and a low number reported for February.  This happened with the February report – December revised up quite a bit and January reported down.

2008-03-05 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (4Q F)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

Seems to go with GDP.

2008-03-05 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

These are now moving up to more nearly match import prices, which functionally are unit labor costs as well as we’ve outsourced labor intensive content.

The Fed watches this closely as when it moves up the inflation cat is out of the bag.

2008-03-05 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Jan)

Survey -2.5%
Actual -2.5%
Prior 2.3%
Revised 2.0%

As expected,  seems to be in a range.

2008-03-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Feb)

Survey 47.3
Actual 49.3
Prior 44.6
Revised n/a

Low, but a bounce from last month, as I expected then.  Weak but not recession levels, and prices still too firm for comfort.

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2008-02-04 US Economic Releases

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small-2008-02-04-challenger-job-cuts-total.gif

Challenger Job Cuts Total (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 74,986
Prior 44,416
Revised n/a

A volatile number that has been showing low levels of layoffs and not given much weight either way.

2008-02-04 Factory Orders Total

Factory Orders (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 441,566
Prior 431,489
Revised n/a

Another strong number – no sign of recession here.

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A blurb from a broker

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>
> An impressive November Factory Orders report offered a respite from the
> recent round of weak economic data.

Yes, and maybe even nudge up Q4 forecasts (forecasting the past).

Also, if you look at the continuing claims graph since 1980, it is very low, especially when considering the growth in the labor force, and the latest rise isn’t yet at all meaningful.

> Another data point likely be viewed as
> an incremental positive by the Fed, was the first increase in Asset-Backed
> Commercial Paper outstanding in 20 weeks.

Yes, and the banks are now actively competing for that business. Markets are ‘functioning’ albeit at different rates than before.

> The ABCP market has been around
> for over 20 years. Between 2005 to 2007 it grew by 80% to $1.2 trillion as
> it became the primary funding tool for SIVs.

Yes. And before that, GDP managed to somehow grow, hitting 6%+ in the late 90s before the surplus took it all down.

There is now very good evidence -not that it was needed- that the financial sector adds little or nothing of value to the ‘real economy’ and instead acts as a massive ‘brain drain’ on the real economy.

> The market enabled SIVs to
> initiate hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged spread trades. The
> SIVs borrowed short in the ABCP market and used the cash to finance
> purchases of mortgage backed securities, CDO’s and other credit instruments.
> Investors have made it clear to the ABCP market that they will no longer
> finance these carry trades. As a result, from August to December. The ABCP
> market shrunk by 37%. One of the concerns, the Fed has expressed has been
> that the legitimate participants in the ABCP market would be cut off from
> financing.

Right, hasn’t happened, and now, as you state, it is going the other way, and cheaper wholesale funding is again becoming available and again taking that lending away from the banks..

> This news could be the first to sign the ABCP market is
> returning to a sense of normalcy, which should be viewed as a minor positive
> and monitored for further improvement.

Agreed, thanks!

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2008-01-03 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-03 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 28)

Survey n/a
Actual -11/6%
Prior -7.6%
Revised n/a

Last December number – purchase applications normally shoot back up in January.

2008-01-03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.7%
Prior -4.7%
Revised n/a

Graph looks OK.

2008-01-03 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Dec)

Survey 33K
Actual 40K
Prior 189K
Revised 173K

A touch better than expected, trending down some, but fed thinks there are fewer people left to hire. This is a real number as ADP reports the actual number of people on its payroll system.

2008-01-03 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims

Survey 345K
Actual 336K
Prior 349K
Revised 357K

This kind of drop means there is no weakness indicated here.

2008-01-03 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Dec 22)

2008-01-03 Continuing Claims from 1980

Continuing Claims since 1980

Survey 2675K
Actual 2761K
Prior 2713K
Revised 2715K

Up some, but the long term graph looks fine.

2008-01-03 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Nov)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.7%

No weakness here.

2008-01-03 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey 16.0M
Actual 16.3M
Prior 16.2M
Revised n/a

Still on the soft side, but no disaster.

2008-01-03 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey 12.2M
Actual 12.5M
Prior 12.4M
Revised n/a

As above.

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2007-12-05 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-05 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 25.5%
Prior -4.3%
Revised -5.2%

Mortgage banking purchase index is holding above 400 since April, and up nicely year over year. The ‘multiple application’ story is getting old.

2007-12-05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.7%
Prior -8.8%
Revised n/a

Modest improvement- doesn’t look like a recession has started.

2007-12-05 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Nov)

Survey 50K
Actual 189K
Prior 106K
Revised 119K

No weakness here- prelude to Friday’s employment number.

2007-12-05 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (3QF)

Survey 5.9%
Actual 6.3%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

More real output from the same amount of labor input, further questions the deflator for Q3.

2007-12-05 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (3QF)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -2.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

As above, the q3 deflator looked suspiciously low.

This should adjust with q4 numbers.

2007-12-05 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Oct)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.3%

Boring, and not worse than Fed forecasts.

2007-12-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing

ISM Non-Manufacturing (Nov)

Survey 55.0
Actual 54.1
Prior 55.8
Revised n/a

It’s been drifting lower with falling budget deficit, but exports propping up gdp.

Probably not any worse than Fed forecasts.

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